I agree that Cubs management and general people likely find Wells to be very fluky and I can understand where that thought is coming from - I considered him that after his first year as well. Heck, I wanted to deal Wells for Heath Bell midway through his first season as a major leaguer. The reason he's seen as a fluke is that he's a little old (28 now, 29 sometime this year) to be entering his third MLB season and he had pretty mediocre minor league stats. However, what they're overlooking is that he started his minor league career as a catcher, explaining his older age relative to his experience. He's also now thrown as many quality major league innings as he has mediocre minor league seasons. We have enough of a sample size to say he'll at least be solid at the ML level, while that's a pretty big gamble with a guy like Coleman. Also, because he began as a catcher in the minors, his arm will have less wear on it than a normal 28 year old, meaning he'll likely be productive for longer than most pitchers. Is he a future all-star stud? No, but he's also too good to cast off for anybody short of the elite players in the system (Cashner, JJax, McNutt, etc). It is possible that they knew he needed some motivation and wanted to push him. Regardless, I don't think he was in any real danger of losing a rotation spot.