Where have you gone, Cubs Den - Cub Nation turns its lonely eyes to you? Never thought I'd see the day. Fact is, I think Arguello is pretty on-point here. As I posted a few months ago, Theo's philosophy of "we set the value a player is worth, and if they go over, we pass" sounds fine on paper. But the practical impact is "we're not going to sign any free agents coveted by other mid-market or large-market teams". Because the reality of FA is, the really desirable guys get overpaid. They get more than they're worth on the back end of their deals. If you're not willing to live with that, you may as well not even bother with first-tier FAs. Rather than this manifesto, Theo really needs to go in saying "this is a guy we really need, and unless things get insane, we're willing to overpay to get him". That's just how FA works. Martin's deal looks like an overpay (Fangraphs says it isn't, FWIW) and I'm not specifically saying we needed to match it. But at some point Theo needs to prove the Cubs are serious - prove it to the rest of baseball, to the fans, and to the guys in his own organization. And that means at some point he has to overpay to get the guy he thinks can really make a difference. If he doesn't, and the Cubs come out of another off-season signing only castoffs and second-tier guys like Hammel or Masterson, there's no reason to take the Cubs seriously as a team that's willing to do whatever it takes to contend. Until Theo actually proves it, it's all talk - and talk, as they say, is cheap. I can anticipate the rebuttal to this - the straw man that Theo just needs to be committed to the plan, and he shouldn't trash it by selling out to go crazy on a big-name FA. Except that overpaying for a FA isn't selling out the plan, and it isn't selling out the future for the present - it's making the commitment that the organization is willing to be bold and take financial risks to support what they've done with the farm system. In point of fact trading elite prospects for Hamels would be selling out the future a lot more than overpaying for Lester. The reality is, Jon Lester has become a very important figure for this organization - not just in baseball terms (where he's huge) but symbolically too. And like it or not, that matters. I agree with Arguello for the most part and agree that if you are going to sign a top free agent, you are going to have to pay market price. I don't mind Theo/Jed being cautious, but the Cubs are not a small market team and should have tons of flexibility to overpay for certain team needs.