Scott G. F.

He chose to go to Tampa. And he wasn't any better in Seattle than Dusty was in San Fran (and both men won because of the ability to pencil in all time greats every day - and neither reached the promised land despite all that talent). Everybody likes to talk about how smart it is to change the makeup of the team by changing the personality of the manager, but what proof do you have that it works? Philly was a moderately talented team that struggled under Francona, who was considered a soft excuse making players managers. So they brought in Bowa and still struggled. A lot of people just assume that ranting and raving and intensity will equal great success, I disagree. Larry Bowa brought alot of fire but not much people skill. He was why over the top. Lou Piniella isn't a raving loon. Nither is Davie Johnson. But do you think for one minute that Sammy Sosa would have considered leaving early if either those guy's were managing? I think we all know the answer. Dusty must go and be replaced by someone that holds his players accountable!!

That's part of the reason they brought in Dusty after Don Baylor (& Bruce Kimm). They figured Dusty wouldn't have arguements with players via the media. Well, that's not the kind of reason I was talking about. In all sports, the philosophy of following coddling managers with disciplinarians has been proven to be a successful one. I believe that too. I believe that's why the pitching coach Acosta was fired during the Baylor years and pissed off Wood. Wood responds to a challenge or being called out by his manager. I believe so do alot of the Cubs current players. They are not, ARE NOT responding to the coddling that DB is doing.

That's part of the reason they brought in Dusty after Don Baylor (& Bruce Kimm). They figured Dusty wouldn't have arguements with players via the media. In hind-site it's kind of funny now isn't it?

With the D Rays he brought more a winning attitude then before. Now with the Reds he won the World Series. In Seattle he took them, year in and year out, to the playoff's, tieing the best regular season win total in baseball ever. More of a winning attitude? They won 63, 70 and 67 games under his watch. That's no better than what Larry Rothschild did down there. Yes, in Cincy he won the World Series, 16 years ago. And he didn't get back to the playoffs. He was in Seattle for 10 seasons and went to the playoffs 4 times, not year in year out as you claim (sounds like how Dusty claims his record looks). He had 2 of the greatest players in baseball history for 7+ seasons and the most dominant starter in the AL during that era. Not to mention he had the greatest DH ever. He had loads of talent to work with for several years. Then, he figured he couldn't get his team to the promised land and left for more money and a less stressful environment. He's 63 years old and melted down in Tampa. 63. 70 and 67 regarding the D Rays is good. 10 Years in Seattle 4 playoffs. Better then any any Cubs manager. I'd take it. Most dominate starter? Wood, Prior, Zambo under LP could be even better. I hate the DB excuses and spin. I hate when personal and professional responsibility are through out the window. Lou wouldn't put up with that and put the fire into this team. It's needed.

With the D Rays he brought more a winning attitude then before. Now with the Reds he won the World Series. In Seattle he took them, year in and year out, to the playoff's, tieing the best regular season win total in baseball ever.

What did he bring them besides anger? They sucked and never took a step forward. I disagree. Look at the D Rays record during his stint. They improved. They cleaned the riff-raff off the books. He didn't have pithcing which is there problem now along with unwilling to make a deal or spend money. which is why Lou left, the D Rays promised to spend more on the team and they didn't, he go out. Enter Joe Madden (who?).

Vance, I like DJ too. But seeing what Lou brought to the D-Rays and what he did with less then nothing impressed me since it was local. It is true Lou like vets too but Tampa didn't have many of them and he worked with that. The Cubs need fire and passion not a surfer '"dude you gotta do better man" attitude. Ozzie G of the White Sox sparked his team. I say Lou would do the same for the Cubs.

Noted

If Wood and Prior come back and pitched well Dusty gets an extention and we Cubs fans suffer longer. Wood and Prior (and I believe Hendry) are stalling their come backs and letting the case to fire Dusty get stronger (Prior is ailing from unheard of illnesses now). There is enough season left for a new manager to come in and take the reigns of this underacheieveing team and make the playoffs and even the World Series. Enter Lou Piniella. He's sitting around doing nothing here in Tampa. Let there be no doubt that he IS the answer to the Cubs WS appearence. Lou was put into a losing situation here in Tampa and made the best out of it. In Chicago, I believe his brand of managing will spark this current Cubs team. Lou has fire and passion. Dusty looks like he's sleeping (which infuriates me!). Lou has won the WS before not just got there! I predict the Cubs will fire DB by May 21 and replace him with Lou Piniella.

True, but players will regress towards their established levels of performance. Brandon Phillips and Bronson Arroyo wont help keep the Reds on top all year long to the degree that they're doing now. Yeah, just like Eric Milton and Danny Graves couldn't possibly stay as bad as they were at the beginning of last year. I hate to say this, but I live near Cincinnati and the new owner is doing and saying everything I wish Cubs ownership would do -- instilling an attitude of excellence that permeates the entire organization. It's depressing. Plus their hitting coach drew more than 30 freaking walks in his best year as a player. Don't count the Reds out; not this time. Mark my words. Consider you words "marked". I just don't see the Reds having depth to maintain. The ownership can "rah rah" all it wants. It'll be interesting to see.

We all have our opinions and I respect yours. I just plotted all of 2005 results and comparied them to 2006 thus far and feel even more confident now. The Cubs as of right now today are "dead nuts" in the middle of the pack. 8th out of 16 teams in the NL. Last year they finished 7th out of 16. It's not an opinion. here is an informative website. http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/regrmean.htm Thanks for the link. Plotting teams trends that made the playoffs for 2005 an overwhelming majority of the teams maintained a presence in the popultion or bulk of the bell curve. Just as I have suggested the Cubs try and do. An overwelming majority of the teams that were at the top of the bell curve dropped back into the population aka regressed. There in lies the hope that math brings. Cross reference these trend with addition of a trade and the results are even more pronouned. That bounce (as I've been calling it ) has the same effect with either a trade or a return of a healthy player. The Cubs will have 3 this year without doing anything. If the Cubs can maintain a presense on the bulk of the bell curve thoughtout the season until they can receive the bounces they need. they should be on good shape for the strech run.

We all have our opinions and I respect yours. I just plotted all of 2005 results and comparied them to 2006 thus far and feel even more confident now. The Cubs as of right now today are "dead nuts" in the middle of the pack. 8th out of 16 teams in the NL. Last year they finished 7th out of 16.

I disagree That logic would create a line, one win one loss vs each game played? Plot the Cubs division by winning percent. I top will regress not based on a hope and a prayer. If that's all that can be said statistically about baseballs win/loss % then why claim a team underachieved/overachieved? I don't see that as the problem at all. I see it as the hope for the Cubs. The bell shape is shaped top to bottom (or side to side) with a majority in the middle. The Cubs must stay in the middle at least until August when they need to push out toward the upper edge. A big trade at the dead line does increase this chance and a bounce in winns is created (looks at Cubbiesinexile). The Cubs have 3 big bounces due this year in the forms of Wood Prior and D. Lee. Now add in a suprise trade or flashes of a career year (looks at Am Ram) and the Cubs will have a nice shot at the end of this season. All those variables do add up like adding percentages. It means that each team will regress toward the mean sometime during the year. The Cubs have time to fix the problems they have. I disagree, I bet between you and I we can pick the playoff teams for 2006 right now based on the upper Gauissan bell curves of the past 3-4 years. Throwing all voodoo "their due" crap out the window. The Cubs will have better people getting back on the team for the Cubs to push toward the top of the bell curve by the end of the season. The other clubs ahead of the Cubs as of today will regress. Unless the bottom falls completly out of the Cubs season all they have to do is hang around until they can realize the bounce. If the timing is right the CUbs will surge when the regression happens making the season for us Cub fans very exciting.

Unfortunately you don't know when the regression will play out. The 2005 White Sox proved that a baseball season may be too short a time. Either way I figured the Cubs for mid to upper 80s in wins this year. Lee's injury is costing us about a game a month. So now we are looking at low to mid 80s. I think Wood will be great this year and Marshall or Miller could be great surprises. I haven't thrown in the towel yet. Good, don't throw in the towel at all! I hesitated writing this thread thinking I might be talking over some heads. Some arguments are decent. Look at the total population of teams and baseball and average there record. That's the mean. The Gaussian peak is usually around .500. All teams will regress in that direction. Some one mentioned the Sox last year. Look at the last month. They sure began to regress but the season ended just in time. The Cubs got off to a credible start but then lost D. Lee. I believe they'll get a boost during the mid season months and be in the thick of it at the end if only they can be within +/- 3 games of .500. They'll ensure at least a wild card chase. Hang on Cubs fans because that's what we do!!!!!

For those that down know what this means "Regress toward the mean" is a statistical fact. Most teams will be within .500 at the end of the year. The Reds, Astro and Cards are off to a smoking start. I don't believe any of them will continue on there current pace and will regress toward the mean. The mean being .500. If the Cubs can eek out at around .500 until Wood and Prior and D Lee/(Any help) then they have a nice chance of getting that bounce in wins. The offense is in a bit of a tailspin right now and the "go-to guy" doesn't seem to be coming up at the right time. These things will happen to all teams this year mark my words. It's just happening now to the Cubs. So don't get down, or give up. All teams must work through these times to see who will step up and begin to deliver. I'm glad Wood is pitching soon in Peoria. I get the feeling he isn't rushing back this time and will stay once up in the majors this time. The season is early. Relax and have an Old Style enjoy the season and don't get bent out of shape when the Cubs lose because some times they will. I just hope it's not very often.

When asked about being awarded this honor Wood replyed with a simulated answer. All the while, Prior threw long-toss in the background, D Lee simulated hitting a clutch hit and Angel Pagan simulated stealing a base.

Welcome, Hopefully you have found a new home.

http://i77.photobucket.com/albums/j74/KurtEvans/brokearmmountain2.jpg I just can't even put into words. This club is cursed!!! So laugh a little.

This start indicates what a dog fight this division will be. The only hope I have is the Cubs regaining their brass in Prior and Wood. I have no expectations from Miller. The Reds lost Griffey to the DL already. If the Cards expect Poo-holes to hit games winners all season then they'll be in for a long year. The Cards will have a problem scoring when he grows cold. The pen is going to be a major weakness and begin to tear apart the starters. This isn't a bad thing. The Cards are not balanced and will begin to sputter. Milwaukee, I hope, will not have the confidence to be a winner. If this team begins believing in itself the entire division is in trouble. The pitchers will regress back to the mean along with some of the younger players. But watch out for these guys. This team is more balanced and but I'm not sure they have the horses with enough experience to go the distance. The Pirates, well looks like another bad year from the beginning. They are really stuck on neutral. Looks like a back office cleaning might be in order soon. Houston, well I'm surprised with their start and expect them to regress very quickly to the bottom. But they have pride and heart. They will wear down and have major offensive problems. The Cubs seem to have a nice blend of offense and pretty good D so far. The starting pitching is the weakness, but the pen (sans) Ohman and Wuertz seem to close the door more often. Dempster has been incredible. Not everything is clicking for the Cubs but they'll be around for the season barring anything major and will look to be even better by June with Prior and Woody coming back with any help from Wade a bonus. Put your helmut on Cub fans and fill the cooler with Old Style this years race is gonna be good!

It always starts with a hit!!!

sure did. both against rusch. It'll come out that Rusch tips his pitches I garantee that! The Reds have the secret suace on him somehow.

I hope, that is if we don't come back, that we get it all out of our system in this game. Pagan DP is a good thing in this game. Got it all out and relax.

3 innings left we have some time.

123 wow. Things are looking better (they can't seem to be ever worse).

Yeah, it's like the Tsunami. I took and walk in the mountains, came back and everything was out of wack!!!!