Brandon Glick

Oh I can certainly understand the prospect fatigue with him (and any prospect in general who takes a long time to figure their stuff out, if they ever do). I can't speak for other Cubs' prospect people, though from what I can surmise the reason he's well liked is because the Cubs FO really loves him (and anyone with any sort of inside connection who hears that would obviously be inclined to feel similarly). For me personally, I think Franklin has some of the best, call it "pitchability", in the system. He's a high IQ pitcher. He can work his way in and out of jams that most SP prospects don't have the composure for. It's his command that betrays him (which of course, is absolutely a huge red flag and something he needs to reign in over the next 16 months to remain on the radar). His changeup is so high floor that he can be a split-neutral guy from the get-go (which is extremely valuable for a pitcher who would theoretically go through an order two+ times every outing). There's no doubt his curve has been bumpier than most. But that's the prospecting game. Most of these guys bust and drop off the radar forever. It's not about perfectly identifying a guy, it's about finding the ones who seem likeliest to overcome all the hurdles on the way to becoming a big league-caliber player. Franklin's experience with struggling at every level should help him as he makes his way to Triple A, but he definitely has to speed up his process and growing pains.

"...But he’s only listed here because he’s Rule 5 eligible after the season and will need to be put on the 40-man roster anyways over the offseason to be protected (if the Cubs feel the need to protect him, of course)." Franklin is far from a finished product, and I would never advocate for him to be in the majors this year, but he's a legitimate prospect. Obviously you want the results to be there for all prospects, but a lot of the time these guys in the minors are working on tweaks to their pitch shapes/deliveries/pitch mixes/etc. that get in the way of direct results. It's a developmental curve for a reason - it's not a linear path to becoming an MLB-caliber player.

Justin Steele. The rebirth of Jameson Taillon. The high-functioning ghost of Kyle Hendricks. And… what else? Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports The Cubs’ rotation right now, heading down the stretch here in 2023 and in the heat of a playoff chase, is far from settled. Justin Steele has been a lockdown option atop the rotation, but he’s already gone past his previous career high in innings (119 innings pitched last year, 121 already this year). Jameson Taillon has seemingly rediscovered himself thanks to a reworked pitch mix. Still, his massive first-half struggles raise questions about his ability to keep up his recent performance (2.67 ERA in five starts in July, 3.00 ERA in two starts in August) through the end of the season. Kyle Hendricks has been a highly valuable innings eater, but he’s coming off a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder and was ineffective over the previous two seasons. Beyond that trio, already littered with their own asterisks, the Cubs have a lot of questions to answer in their rotation. Marcus Stroman started this year on fire, earning a deserved all-star selection for his first-half performance (2.38 ERA in 102 innings through June). But ever since the blister issue in London against the St. Louis Cardinals, he’s struggled mightily (he has a 10.13 ERA in just 16 second-half innings!), and now he’s on the IL with a hip inflammation issue that the Cubs are praying is the source of his downtick in performance. Drew Smyly similarly started the year hot (3.15 ERA in 60 innings in April and May), coming off a scorching second half-last season (2.83 ERA in 57 and ⅓ innings). However, he’s been absolutely torched recently, giving up a preposterously high 7.22 ERA since May 28. He’s also been almost unbelievably susceptible to the long ball, giving up 1.76 home runs per nine (which, among pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings this year, ranks ninth-worst in all of baseball). The Cubs are responding in accordance with all of this information, moving Smyly to the bullpen and giving long-man Javier Assad another chance to lock down a spot in the rotation. Assad has been exceptional in long-relief, but he’s generally been a two-pitch pitcher that will need to expand his arsenal beyond the fastball/cutter combo (and occasional slider and changeup) to make it through the second and third time in an order. Beyond him, the Cubs have some intriguing, though perhaps not-quite-ready, options available in-house to try and fill the void at the back end of the rotation that currently exists. Ben Brown. Brown was all but certainly the next man up following his dominant start to the year at Double-A Tennessee (0.45 ERA in 20 innings pitched there). However, his recent strike-throwing troubles at Triple-A (40 walks in 65 innings) suggest he still has some refinement to work through before he’s ready. It’s also possible he’d be better utilized out of the big league bullpen this year, given his incredible fastball/curveball mix. And, of course, he was just placed on the Injured List, squashing any chance of him contributing in the immediate future. Jordan Wicks. Armed with a 60-grade changeup and above-average command, Wicks is the most MLB-ready pitcher in the Cubs’ system at the moment. He hasn’t been dominant at Triple-A this year (4.24 ERA in 23 and ⅓ innings, with some meh peripherals to match), but his profile and diverse arsenal of pitches could make him a viable fifth starter down the stretch. Riley Thompson. This is a name you’ve probably heard here and there as he’s steadily climbed the ladder over the years, though he’s having a tough go of it in his first taste of Triple-A this season (4.95 ERA in 60 innings, with an ugly 6.10 FIP). He was an exciting prospect following two really strong seasons in A ball to begin his career, but he lost two crucial years to the pandemic and still has yet to regain his footing. Hopefully, the Cubs can help him get there because the fastball/slider/curveball combo is genuinely exciting. Still, it would take a catastrophe of biblical proportions to see him on the big league team this year. Kohl Franklin. Full disclosure, I love this kid. In my eyes, he has a top-three changeup in the system, and he started the season in such an electric way at High-A this year (2.79 ERA in 19 and ⅓ innings, with a sizzling 13.97 strikeouts per nine innings). He’s hit a speed bump at Double-A, mostly because of a spotty walk rate (4.58 walks per nine innings) which has always been his most glaring issue. He’s a true starting pitching prospect, but he’s only listed here because he’s Rule 5 eligible after the season and will need to be put on the 40-man roster anyways over the offseason to be protected (if the Cubs feel the need to protect him, of course). Cade Horton. He won’t get called up, having just made it to Double-A, and he’s already thrown 65 and ⅓ innings this year after barely pitching in college. However, his arm is undeniably special, and he will (hopefully) be a staple of future Cubs rotations. He just won’t be able to help out this year, unfortunately. On top of the guys listed, Hayden Wesneski and Caleb Kilian are already in the big league bullpen assisting as openers and in long-relief. With Smyly moving out of the rotation, chances are one of them could join Assad in the rotation, at least until Stroman returns. The Cubs will need a strong effort out of whatever five they choose to start in the hunt for a playoff spot. However, it’s fair to lob a little criticism at the front office for not trying to plug this hole with a rental starter at the deadline (when the Stroman and Smyly issues were already apparent and actively hurting the team). Who do you want to see the Cubs give a chance to this year? No pressure on answering that question. It’s only a spot in the playoffs on the line. View full article

I think this encapsulates a lot of what the fans are feeling - this team has momentum right now. The farm is doing well, risky moves like the Belli and Dansby signings are paying off, and guys like Amaya and Madrigal are playing their way into a future roster spot. It would sting like hell if this doesn't continue; hopefully there's a few big offseason moves and prospect graduations to put the Cubs back on the WS contention path.

I hear this - all of me wants Belli in right and PCA in center for the next half-decade. But whether they re-sign Bellinger or not, I think it's fair to evaluate this season as some sort of success since the team is competitive again AND guys like Belli (and Swanson) have been excellent moves.

Brilliantly put. I think there's actually semblance of confidence now in the front office that they have an actual direction. It's not aimless anymore.

If a guy being two spots out of the top 10 (with 2 of the guys ahead of him draft picks from this year) on one list means PCA is a worse prospect than before, then the Cubs need to pack it up

Absolutely - I definitely don't think it's as black and white as "this season was perfect" or "this season was a waste". Everyone will have their own scales on how they feel, but I think it's a good thing that the scales are still being balanced as opposed to thrown out the window in July like the last two years.

This is what I'm most worried about too. There's been some disappointments to be sure (Suzuki, 2nd half stroman, smyly, etc.) but most of the guys on the team are producing in like their 70th-80th percentile outcomes. It would suck if this isn't enough. But at the same time, this is still a team fresh out of a rebuild. There are plenty of pieces still to put together. I'm glad we're competitive with the parts we have.

Well put. I definitely think people are going to come at this (come the end of the season) with very rigid/inflexible parameters that will determine their answer. I wanted to pose the question now just so that we can all remember that, no matter what goes down these next two months, at least we got a team worth rooting for again.

I think you hit the nail on the head. There's obviously quite a few games left to be played and the season is far from done. I just remember how rough it's been since ~2019, knowing that the team wasn't going to make any noise. It almost became a chore to watch as the old core grew stale (I still LOVE those guys, but it was clear everything had run its course in Chicago). It's nice to have a fun team playing competitive games again. Hopefully that means they'll get to the playoffs and test their mettle against the best, but if nothing else, this year has been a refreshing change of pace.

There's a tense final stretch ahead for the 2023 Cubs, who find themselves in a playoff race. Now, we just have to agree on where the finish line is. Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports The Cubs are, as of this writing prior to the games of August 9, in possession of the third Wild Card in the National League (by percentage points over the Reds) and just a game and a half back of the Brewers for first in the division. Had you told that to any Cubs fan on Opening Day of the season, odds are that they would have taken this outcome and run. Is that, alone, enough to call this season a success? How about the way the Cubs came out firing on all cylinders after the All-Star break, going 17-8 with recent statement series wins against the (then-)division-leading Reds and the superb Braves? Would the fact that the Cubs defied all the odds and national prognostications that they would be sellers for the third year in a row (instead buying the best rental bat on the market, in Jeimer Candelario) be enough to convince you that this season, no matter how it ends, was a good one? What, ultimately, defines a successful season? How does one fan base attempt to establish the parameters that would aid them in arriving at a consensus? There’s no doubt that question--whether the season was a success or not--will be easier to answer come October. If the Cubs are in the playoffs, it would be a pretty open-and-shut case that this season was positive. If they absolutely implode, cratering closer to the first pick in the draft than first in the division, then most would probably call it a failure. But what happens if the club remains competitive, finishes the season above .500 and misses out on the last Wild Card by a game or two? After watching Frank Schwindel and the Great Minor League Home Run Race of 2022 (between Alexander Canario and Matt Mervis) be the predominant storylines in Cubs fandom in the second half of the last two seasons, isn’t simply having competitive baseball in August and September again a success? This entire discussion is about the Major League team, but there have been important developments down on the farm this year, too--from Owen Cassie’s explosion to Pete Crow-Armstrong cementing himself as a true blue-chip prospect. Further, although the Cubs didn’t add any notable prospect talent at the trade deadline, they also didn’t deal anything away that isn’t from an area of significant strength in this organization. (I will still miss you, Kevin Made.) No matter what, this is not a lost season. It's not anything akin to the utter dysfunction going down on the South Side (sorry, White Sox fans). However, the Cubs have a chance to do something special right now, and falling short of even the first rung on that ladder will feel exceptionally disappointing. The only thing we as fans can do--and the same goes for the players on the team--is take it one game at a time. We can scoreboard-watch like hawks, incessantly and meticulously combing over the schedules of every other National League contender to see exactly how the Cubs can make their way into the big dance, and drive ourselves crazy. There are still two months of games to be played, after all. Maybe the fact that these two months matter so much is enough--or maybe, these two months are just the appetizer for something much bigger. View full article

Saw that too. It'll be an ongoing discussion for fans and the front office alike as long as the Cubs remain competitive. There are two spots on the 40-man right now, but keeping those into the offseason could prove extremely valuable.

No matter what side you take, this entire discussion was worth it just to get here

Oh trust me, it was intended. All the way. I've been doing the prospect thing for a while now. I've seen enough "can't miss" guys fail and enough "who the hell is he" guys succeed to know it's a crapshoot. And really, that's all it is. A crapshoot. You just gotta keep throwing darts at the board to see what sticks. And that's the point: you have to at least throw the dart. You can't prevent yourself from doing so just because the odds are it won't work. Yea, it'd be great if the Cubs could just have a guaranteed 4 WAR guy at every position on the diamond. But those guys are expensive and you can't just buy every surefire player on the market (at least not this side of George Steinbrenner). You need young guys to come up and produce. Mervis could be one of them. He just needs a chance. That's all I want for him (and every other guy who produces enough at the highest level of the minors to deserve it).

Tiger's response is basically perfect (at least in terms of my own opinions on the matter), but to add very quickly: Just because LaHair flamed out doesn't mean Mervis will. It's kinda like going into a new relationship expecting to get cheated on because your ex cheated on you. Like yea, you're gonna protect your heart from the chances it happens again, but the past with someone else doesn't determine the future with someone new (this makes me sound like I love Matt Mervis... don't get me wrong, I'm sure he's swell, but I'd at least like him to take me out to dinner first).

New merch idea for the Obvious Shirt store???

I don't know. I get what you're saying about Mervis not being an elite prospect and not forming our team plan around him. That's fine and well (and true). But, I mean, what else is the guy supposed to do? He's doing everything at the top-end (like 90th percentile outcome) of his profile in the minors. I'm not advocating the Cubs give him the next two years to figure things out. They HAVE to go into next year with more than what they did this year at first. Obviously. But how in the world is the guy supposed to prove whether he belongs in the majors if he never gets a chance in the majors? He had 99 PA. That's it. And as has been pointed out by others, there are innumerable guys who struggled deeply at first only to improve with more exposure to the bigs (I mean, that's literally the whole point of being a prospect. Adjusting to a new level and then adjusting to that level's adjustments against you.). He won't be Rizzo or Judge or Trout or likely any of the other guys who stumbled badly at first only to become stars later. But every winning team has "good" players who fall short of being elite. Mervis can absolutely become a good player. He just needs a chance. Not an infinite amount of leash. But a chance. And if isn't with the Cubs, it'll be elsewhere.

I was debating writing an article on Horton, but seeing where the comments have gone I think I should write one on Brailyn Marquez if I want to steer the discussion in that direction 😅

But how do you know if a guy can play in the majors if he doesn't get a chance in the majors? We already know he's better than the competition at Triple A. That question has been answered. The jump from Triple A to the Majors is, by FAR, the biggest developmental curve any player will ever face. It takes so many guys multiple chances to figure it out, and most never do. I'm not saying the Cubs have to give Mervis a terribly long leash, but he already proved what he can at Triple A. Eventually, he has to come back up to the big leagues and see if he can sustain his success there.

I think if the Cubs had sold at the deadline this year, Mervis is up right now and playing every single day, trying to work through the last hurdles to become a solid every day player. The Cubs have just found themselves in the fortunate position of needing guys who are 100% ready to go now. Mervis is a futures play. He's more upside than finished product right now. Most guys in the minors are. But you can only know if he'll succeed in the majors by giving him extended run (eventually). If he sucks out of the gate next year, fine. Hopefully the FO has enough foresight to have a backup plan in place. But this kid is a developmental win for the organization. Gotta give him a chance when not in the heat of a playoff push to see if he can become a guy you want during the next playoff chase.

Basically the same conclusion I think I've arrived at. This tank wasn't as profound (or elongated) as the Epstein years, but that means the team doesn't have the same top-end talent. Doesn't mean they can't become a true contender in time, but the window isn't as obviously open as before.

The only question is will they spend like the Cubs did to supplement such a good, young roster. The Angelos are... frivolous, to put it kindly.