Stratos
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Everything posted by Stratos
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If the Cubs look really good at the deadline I think Ricketts would be willing to go over the LT. He's done it multiple times in the past. Though that was with a historic "World Series core" Cubs roster in win-now mode.
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Do mutual options/buyouts etc count towards the LT AAV?
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Given we'll likely lose Happ/Suzuki/Nico/Taillon soon, if the Cubs acquired Bregman then this definitely becomes a win-now year, and if i'm Ricketts I go over the LT and keep buying. Grab a veteran bench guy, maybe a SP in trade for low-minors talent, maybe another loogy.
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I wonder what Cease would get as a FA on a 1-year deal. 40m? That would be his worth in a trade. Odd that Cease is projected for lower WAR than Bregman.
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ZiPS projects Brasier with a better ERA than Robertson and about the same xFIP. This looks like be a win for Jed, he probably saved around 9m over Robertson/Yates with similar projections for all 3. I assume we give up nobody significant. Only concern is the velo and k/9 drop for Brasier. Hopefully some of that is injury-related and doesn't drop much more.
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Some time over the next 2 seasons the Cubs very likely lose Nico, Happ, Seiya, and Taillon to FA or trade. I imagine our prospects replace most of those guys, so they have payroll room longterm, and some of the above could possibly get moved next offseason to make space for a big Tucker AAV in 2026 if they extend him. Caissie + Tucker (at around 40m AAV) is very close in AAV total to Happ + Seiya.
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If the choice is something like Canha + Moncada + Robertson versus Bregman, I'm well in the camp for Bregman. How many recent seasons have we wasted many millions on near-replacement dudes or old guys that fall apart? I don't mind Robertson but he's 40, and as for the others we should be allocating our millions towards real talent.
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- alex bregman
- matt shaw
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Wow. I mean again it could all be Boras smoke. And also Hoyer's job is on the hot seat. Is he going to risk his job betting that Matt Shaw has a good rookie year and Dansby and Nico recover from surgery well? Nor sure yet what i think, but 4 years is a lot better than 6+. Bregman will be 31 on March 30. If this happens I can see Nico being traded next offseason and Shaw at 2b. If he opts out Shaw is at 3b and Triantos is still a 2b option whenever Nico leaves.
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Its just hard for me to see a Bellinger-like Bregman deal making sense for Bregman unless he just got unlucky with a weak market for 3B this offseason, or Boras is just biting off more than he can chew. Now is the time for Bregman to get a longterm deal, he'll never be in a better position. But we know from Bellinger/Montgomery etc that if a Boras client is this deep into the offseason without a deal then Boras hasn't been getting the offers he thinks his client deserves, making a shorter term deal more likely. Seems Boras consistently overvalues his clients and if no sucker bites they go shorter term/opt-out. Looking at Soto and Snell its hard to argue with the results most of the time.
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Ok thanks, i didn't see anything on twitter/BN etc
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Matt Trueblood, where do the reports of the Cubs making a "creative multiyear" offer come from? Is this a Northside exclusive?
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With Nico/Swanson are coming off injuries i'd keep Nico if Jed can afford it. Trading cheap 4 WAR for older expensive 4 WAR with a QO doesn't seem very smart for the Cubs.
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All Boras lies until it happens.
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Probably mostly a salary dump
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I forgot about the QO. You're probably right.
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Note that Shaw can play some 2b if Nico isn't 100% by OD. Same at SS for Swanson. Bregman might be adding anywhere from 1 to 2 WAR to the team if we assume a solid but not amazing year for Shaw and Shaw adding depth at 2B, SS, and 3B. Could be more WAR he adds if there's injuries. A couple months in AAA throughout the year wouldn't kill Shaw either, especially working on the glove at 3b and 2b.
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I think going from 40 IP to 160 still building back from TJS is unlikely for him. My impression is most orgs still don't like huge increases in IP year to year due to injury risk. If he triples his innings to 120 i think that's an upper range spot for him. Could make 30 starts but on a lower than average pitch count.
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If Triantos can hit like Nico with a little more power I guess there's a chance for him to be something like a 110 wRC+ guy. If even half of his SBs translate to the MLB, say 15-20 per year then he adds some value as well. Jury still out on the glove is guess. Maybe he can be a 2.5 WAR guy if things go well?
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2 days old but:
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He could get a call-up this season. I'm very lukewarm on him as a prospect. The only plus tools he has are the bat-to-ball skills and the arm, and seems to have below average power. He could end up being an average MLB player or Albert Almora without the glove, who knows. The SB's he's had are interesting though.
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Small sample for Boyd last year though. Flaherty has a far larger track record of being very good when healthy, I think he has the higher upside but he's getting paid for that too. I agree the contracts do matter and Boyd has the better one. I'd be happy if Boyd throws 110 IP and has a sub-4 ERA. We know Boyd's a flyball pitcher and so will give up his share of HR, for a SP he's above average to well-above average in K/9 the last 2 seasons and historically, and his BB/9 has been very good the last 2 years and historically, That should hopefully equate to an above-average ERA and xFIP, even though it hasn't for his career besides last year.
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I think given how quickly they signed Boyd they likely targeted him because they see things in him they really like. They're pretty good at that. They hit on Imanaga. I don't have any data but guys after TJS are usually pretty good on arm health over the next several seasons aren't they? Big thing is building back the IP on him i guess.
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You're forgetting Brown. If he's healthy he has the potential to be a TORP eventually. I think he probably has the best stuff on the team among the SP, and Hodge might be the only guy on the roster to compare. Would be nice to have another solid and established SP. Given Brown/Assad/Wicks plus Horton maybe they're a little hesitant to sign another SP longterm and block their path. I think Boyd is a good fit, they have lots of guys already to find innings. I kinda like Assad, he doesn't have the out-pitch but has a good sinker and good competitive presence on the mound and is versatile. Wicks will go as far as his fastball i wager.
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Yes teams obviously have fears over his durability, and aren't going to give him a longterm deal that he wants based only on how he pitched last year. I think he got the short term high AAV deal with opt-out he was likely looking for given his market and with a team he had great success with last year. Rea for 5m is ok for depth given we lost Wesneski/Smyly. From a pitching standpoint the Cubs seem to prefer to buy low-ish on guys with a profile they see with potential for improvements and bet on their MLB pitching infrastructure get more out of them. I also think they see pitching as more risky than hitters due to higher rate of injury as well (if your 30m AAV SP needs TJS you've just lost a 3-4 WAR player for at least 2 years, which is enough to cost you a playoff spot or 2). Both those factors combined, Hoyer tends not to make huge bets using huge assets (prospects for trade, or money) on elite pitchers at the top of their game. That's why I have doubts they would fork over big prospects, especially position players, for 1 year of Cease/King etc. They seem more willing to spend more resources on position players since their abilities are far more stable and much less able to be improved, plus are less injury risk.
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Solid chance he does better in 2025, but predicting the future is impossible.
