Stratos
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Everything posted by Stratos
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Turning Point and Matt Shaw: Politicization and Baseball
Stratos replied to a topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Yes it is. Saying economic issues are politics but identity politics and issues about democracy/constitution aren't politics is just not true. -
Gore is a very solid pitcher. But his walk rate and groundball rate are consistently below average and those things aren't easy to improve and the Cubs shouldn't assume they can improve them, so regardless of his quality stuff he's going to have a certain ceiling.
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Tigers already have Skubal and Flaherty so they don't need someone like Imai as much as the Cubs do. I could just as easily see them being happy with someone like Gallen. Can't count out the Dodgers either, though not as likely. They were reported to be shopping Glasnow earlier in the offseason.
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If you wait the price can come down and you gain more leverage as teams come off the board. Maybe the price doesn't come down, but as long as you're not desperate or can still pivot there's little risk. I can't name a time when Jed had a bad offseason because he waited to long, he usually ends up with good players on good contracts. Had we paid Bellinger/Boras what they wanted in December two offseasons ago we'd have paid out the ying-yang. Montgomery and Chapman were also steals that offseason, and Bregman didn't get the longterm deal he probably wanted last year. Maybe it's mostly a tactic that works with Boras LOL.
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Well again, what's he basing this on? Speculation I'm assuming until he actually reports something. And even then there's a grain of salt. I'm not really worried about this offseason. Jed is never left up the creek without a paddle in the offseason and when he really wants someone out of need he tends to get them, even when boxed in a corner a bit Like Bellinger both times he signed, or Stroman when SP were flying off the shelf before the lockout. The offseason rewards patience because players can fall into your lap later in the offseason when their market collapses as teams come off the board.
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Which teams are actively looking for a SP of Gallen quality or better and also have the finances to sign them? There's 4 of those quality FA SP left on the market. Plus the trade market.
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Well King just signed. That seems reason to be less optimistic about landing one of King/Imai lol
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It doesn't sound like he knows anything though. There's no actual reporting going on here
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Turning Point and Matt Shaw: Politicization and Baseball
Stratos replied to a topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
IDGAF -
Imagine having Boyd, Shota, Steele, and Suarez haha. You could plunk Horton and Taillon between them so it wouldn't be that bad. I'd prefer King and probably Imai over him too.
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What do people here think of Ranger Saurez? His K/9 is league-average but the BB/9 are above-average and he gets lots of groundballs. Not sure how the velo will play as he ages though, dropped down to 90.5 last year. Could turn into a Stroman-like pumpkin sooner than Stro did. I'd probably pass.
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Chicago Cubs Have "Renewed Interest" In Alex Bregman
Stratos replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Been going back and forth thinking about Bregman for a while. Would be really nice on like a 3 year deal but just not on what he's going to demand. The 3/120 deal from last year is probably pretty fair and I think they should have done it. Would have lessened the loss of Cam Smith and Paredes too so the Tucker deal would have felt better. -
I didn't like the Soriano deal at the time. Harder to evaluate fielding value back then. FG and Baseball reference vary wildly on his WAR with the Cubs. That's was a lot of money at the time to pay a 115-120 wRC+ hitter who they stuck in LF and largely stopped stealing bags. If he were a decent fielding 2B for us that would be a bit different. It wasn't a Heyward bust by any means though. Regarding Heyward, i'm thinking that if I made a 184 million dollar bet and lost and I had to be reminded of it every day for the next 8 years I'd probably lose a lot of sleep and get gun-shy on another huge bet too. They did sign Swanson though.
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I'm pretty surprised how much people have taken Imai's comments about the language thing seriously. Or wanting to be beat the Dodgers rather than beat them. He probably does mean these things as random thoughts that cross the back of his mind during interviews that he just blurts out, but the few extra million dollars the top bidding team will throw at him will very likely send all these thoughts to the trash bin.
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Totally agree. Lots of things FIP doesn't factor, including quality of contact as you mention. E.g. it also wouldn't factor a guy like Matthew Boyd's ability to hold and pick off runners. I'd imagine the Cubs and other orgs have long had their own internal stats created by their own stat geeks that go well beyond FIP/xFIP and fWAR. Too bad us fans have to settle for some of the older/simpler stats.
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I also literally laughed out loud.
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Agree, that's a lot of money and years for a guy that old. The current velo doesn't concern me like the age. Velo and weird slots make everything else play up, so obviously the slot seems to make up for the velo. Also wonder how the EV of batted balls from hitters is impacted by such low pitch velos. He has 99th percentile exit velos. Basic physics would say no way you can hit a ball as hard off 83mph as 97mph. Anyways, the guy is an absolute freak and his sinker might be the craziest pitch i've ever seen on one of these graphs vs the league avg, and his slider also breaks UP:
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I remember when the Cubs did a similar thing when they promoted Hottovy to head pitching coach. He was young and pretty new and inexperienced on the MLB side but talented and was getting interest from other teams so the Cubs knew that if they didn't promote him that some other team was likely to poach him for a similar position. Glad to keep Zombro in the org. Besides the pitching knowledge he has obvious inside connections to Tread and it seems to be bearing fruit this offseason as the Cubs have signed some Tread pitchers already. My thinking is that in order for a team to be the best in the game on the field it means they should strive to be the best in every single aspect of the org at all levels, not just signing the best players. Just settling on being "good" at certain things isn't good enough IMO. Zombro seems like an elite piece at what he does.
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I suspect it's because the Japanese hitters aren't as big/strong as in the Americas. The Japanese pitchers aren't big/tall either but that matters less if you can still throw hard.
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Nice link. It would be super interesting to know how the Cubs and most other teams value Imai. It's really hard for fans to evaluate these Japanese guys except for articles like that.
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That's been how they've been playing the 2nd loogy the last couple of years if memory serves.
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There's not much loyalty in baseball among either players or owners because a lot of money is involved. It's just business, and that's fine. Is what it is. I'd likely bounce for an extra 10 million too.
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Can he get out RHB? He didn't last year. Seems like an average reliever as long as the velo doesn't dip more.
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Yeah 3 years for a reliever who will be 35 on Opening Day is a no-go for me too. If he were 30 years old then that's fine.
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I wonder if the trade route is something that could save some payroll and free up the money to pursue one of these high leverage relievers. Kinda like what they did last year.
