Stratos

Cubs did finish 3rd in NL in runs scored last year, albiet the gap between the Cubs and those 2 teams was huge, over 100 runs each. Pitching and inconsistency was the issue. Cubs have a chance to top their runs scored from last year if they sign Bellinger, with better output from 1B and DH, and Amaya probably hits better than Barnhart, though Amaya hit really bad in the latter part of the year. Braves have good players at almost every position and elite players at at least 4 positions, and have a big advantage at catcher than us, which is now probably going to be our weakest position this year.

For some reason all the projection outlets have Seiya at around -9 defensive run value next season, down from the -3.6 he put up last year and -3.0 in 2022. I wonder if they project him to DH a bunch especially if Bellinger is signed and PCA comes back up at some point during the season? ZiPS offensive projections for him match what he did last year: 124 wRC+. They also project him to play only 136 games, which is reasonable. I don't think they should dock him so much on the glove like they did, he's still probably 3 WAR player.

Well I assume he'd be at least better at 1B because the throws seem to be his issue, and likely better than Busch/Morel because of the range and athleticism and lack of throws. Good point re: Bellinger. But we don't know yet if Morel can handle 3B well enough to play there or not, or 1B for that matter. Interesting to note that ZiPS has Madrigal at 1.9 WAR next year over only 371 PA's and 86 games based on a very good defense and a 94 wRC+, which I think he's capable of because with only a .280 AVG, which shouldn't be too hard for him with his contact %. That's a 3 WAR pace over a full season. Morel could probably reach about 2.5 WAR if he's not a DH assuming below average defense like 2022 if he hits like last year.

Question: let's say Morel has a poor year defensively at 3B. What should they do with him then? The options are trade him, put him at 1B or DH, try him at 2B and Nico at 3B (unlikely), or just live with the bad glove at some position like 3B until another prospect is ready (e.g. Shaw). If he can't make the throws from 3B then he's a 2B, 1B, or corner OF. The throws from SS aren't much different most of the time and are longer from deep in the hole. I'd say 1B might be the best bet, or a trade. I imagine he'd be better defensively at 1B than Busch or Mervis/McGeary, those guys can DH. His offense will always have a certain ceiling (albeit still above average) with that K% and thus continue to have a mediocre AVG/OBP unless he makes a significant adjustment to his approach.

The only 2 ways this team can get better is by increasing spending efficiency (increasing surplus) or increasing total spending (payroll). The latter probably isn't going to happen, they've never spent significantly over the LT.

The projections try to determine the most likely outcome. Like if you ran the season 100 times the average outcomes would probably resemble their projections. And yes there's some variables the projections might miss. There's always going to be variability like good luck and bad luck, injuries, unexpected breakout seasons and long hot or cold streaks etc. A GM can't predict these things, they can only base their decisions on what's most likely to occur then let the chips fall where they may

For fWAR, a below average defensive 3B is worth about -5 runs per season compared to an average 3b. A bad 3b would be about -10 runs compared to average.

They project 0.1 defensive runs for him. Not sure how that happens if he plays 1B and maybe some DH, it will very likely be in the negative even if he plays it fairly well so more like 2.0 WAR, but even that is high for a rookie 1B. The other projection outlets say around -6 defensive runs and 1.0 WAR Let's hope he has a good year. Mervis is a decent backup option. Better than Hosmer was haha.

420?

Great news for the Cubs

Left-handed, defensive versatility, and almost 3 years younger means Bellinger is the better player going forward I think. The age difference alone is pretty huge. Also remember Bellinger played about 50 games at 1B, a position that has negative run value adjustment in the WAR calculation. If he had played all his games in CF his WAR would have been even higher, maybe around 4.5. His defensive versatility also adds value that isn't reflected in WAR.

Me thinks the Cubs know they could use another LHP in the pen besides Smyly/Little and are signing some guys to find one. They may be done adding MLB guys to the pen and won't acquire a lefty on a MLB contract. Or maybe it's just for depth, hard to say. There's still a chance that Smyly wins the 5th SP spot out of ST and then they could use another lefty if Little isn't ready for some reason. Never know.

We could have thrown in Madrigal and restructured the players we gave up, like include him instead of the Topa/Merryweather-type reliever and maybe give them a prospect not quite as good as Triantos, like BJ Murray.

How is it a roll of the dice? Bellinger likely picked the team that offered the most money, just like every other FA does. I don't think Javy Baez loved the idea of playing in Detroit or Bryant wanted to play for a terrible organization than was destined to lose every year.

The Mancini/barnhart/Smyly deals were mediocre at the time and we all knew it. But compared to what? Cubs fans wanted guys like Abreu and Conforto, and those are worse contracts than anything Jed signed. They wanted Turner and/or Bogaerts over Swanson, and those Turner/Bogaerts contracts are so embarrassingly bad they're beyond description, and were the moment they were signed and I said so and everyone got on me for it. If you don't like bad money then what would you say when Turner and Bogaerts are sucking wins from their teams because they're still on the roster when they're 40 and 41 years old, not to mention in the latter half of their 30's when Swanson is already a FA again? Verlander's contract was bad the day it was signed and Cubs fans defended it. Spending 40m AAV x 3 years for a 40 y/o pitcher is a very stupid contract only a fool would sign. Also, the players we missed on didn't "choose" other teams as you claim, the Cubs chose not to give them the most expensive offer. Players usually go with the team that gives them the best contract. If you think Hoyer's made some bad moves last offseason that's fine but we need context, so again show me a GM who had a better offseason last year than Jed because most teams did a lot worse and added a lot more bad money than Jed did. Your standard is perfection and that's just not possible, but its possible to minimize risk. A few modest AAV 2-year deals that aren't very good is better than having most of the other "better" FA's we passed on. I hope we pass on those lame replacement-level players on multiyear deals going forward, but i'm even more glad we pass on paying 41 year olds elite money.

How do you view minor league splits?

Please name a GM that had a better offseason than Jed last offseason? Mets? Padres? The overwhelming majority of FA signings last year were a bust for all teams, especially the ones we may have been interested in. The idea that a team is going to have zero dollars in dead money is simply unrealistic. If you're going to knock him for Mancini/Barnhart/Smyly then you have to give him credit for Swanson and Bellinger, which were among the 2 best signings of the offseason, and credit for not signing guys like Abreu, Rodon, DeGrom, Verlander, Correa, Rizzo, Bell, Conforto, Benintendi, Syndergaard, Vazquez, Navarez and so far getting the best of the 4 big FA SS at the cheapest price.

That makes sense, probably just tells us Boras' ask for Bellinger is still high enough to be unreasonable for all teams. There's no way the 4 big Boras guys left haven't all received a bunch of interest from teams.

Me thinks they just filled the RHP high end setup role with Neris. They could probably use another LHP in the pen, but they could also be done adding to the pen on MLB deals.

Not sure if this was posted. Moresi says a Bellinger deal doesn't look close with any team at the moment:

Morel can be a really good hitter if he stops trying to aggressively pull every pitch 450ft down the LF line. That should help him with the sliders and slower stuff away. Canario has similar issues, they both pull off pitches significantly IMO. These young strong guys that fall in love with their power won't reach their potential if they don't change their approach.

Source? That seems odd.

If the offseason is a failure its Ricketts' fault. There's only so much you can do when one of your best SP and your best hitter become FA, you have a mediocre bullpen, and you only have about 50m to replace them + make the team better. There was no path to improve this team significantly this offseason compared to last year's team if they stay under the LT unless they possibly started trading away a bunch of their best prospects. Given he also signed Counsell, Hoyer's done well this offseason with the budget limits he seems to have been given from ownership.

Ok so post Neris are we now in the 6th or 7th inning of our offseason?

Aspirations for 88 wins