Stratos

The projections try to determine the most likely outcome. Like if you ran the season 100 times the average outcomes would probably resemble their projections. And yes there's some variables the projections might miss. There's always going to be variability like good luck and bad luck, injuries, unexpected breakout seasons and long hot or cold streaks etc. A GM can't predict these things, they can only base their decisions on what's most likely to occur then let the chips fall where they may

For fWAR, a below average defensive 3B is worth about -5 runs per season compared to an average 3b. A bad 3b would be about -10 runs compared to average.

They project 0.1 defensive runs for him. Not sure how that happens if he plays 1B and maybe some DH, it will very likely be in the negative even if he plays it fairly well so more like 2.0 WAR, but even that is high for a rookie 1B. The other projection outlets say around -6 defensive runs and 1.0 WAR Let's hope he has a good year. Mervis is a decent backup option. Better than Hosmer was haha.

420?

Great news for the Cubs

Left-handed, defensive versatility, and almost 3 years younger means Bellinger is the better player going forward I think. The age difference alone is pretty huge. Also remember Bellinger played about 50 games at 1B, a position that has negative run value adjustment in the WAR calculation. If he had played all his games in CF his WAR would have been even higher, maybe around 4.5. His defensive versatility also adds value that isn't reflected in WAR.

Me thinks the Cubs know they could use another LHP in the pen besides Smyly/Little and are signing some guys to find one. They may be done adding MLB guys to the pen and won't acquire a lefty on a MLB contract. Or maybe it's just for depth, hard to say. There's still a chance that Smyly wins the 5th SP spot out of ST and then they could use another lefty if Little isn't ready for some reason. Never know.

We could have thrown in Madrigal and restructured the players we gave up, like include him instead of the Topa/Merryweather-type reliever and maybe give them a prospect not quite as good as Triantos, like BJ Murray.

How is it a roll of the dice? Bellinger likely picked the team that offered the most money, just like every other FA does. I don't think Javy Baez loved the idea of playing in Detroit or Bryant wanted to play for a terrible organization than was destined to lose every year.

The Mancini/barnhart/Smyly deals were mediocre at the time and we all knew it. But compared to what? Cubs fans wanted guys like Abreu and Conforto, and those are worse contracts than anything Jed signed. They wanted Turner and/or Bogaerts over Swanson, and those Turner/Bogaerts contracts are so embarrassingly bad they're beyond description, and were the moment they were signed and I said so and everyone got on me for it. If you don't like bad money then what would you say when Turner and Bogaerts are sucking wins from their teams because they're still on the roster when they're 40 and 41 years old, not to mention in the latter half of their 30's when Swanson is already a FA again? Verlander's contract was bad the day it was signed and Cubs fans defended it. Spending 40m AAV x 3 years for a 40 y/o pitcher is a very stupid contract only a fool would sign. Also, the players we missed on didn't "choose" other teams as you claim, the Cubs chose not to give them the most expensive offer. Players usually go with the team that gives them the best contract. If you think Hoyer's made some bad moves last offseason that's fine but we need context, so again show me a GM who had a better offseason last year than Jed because most teams did a lot worse and added a lot more bad money than Jed did. Your standard is perfection and that's just not possible, but its possible to minimize risk. A few modest AAV 2-year deals that aren't very good is better than having most of the other "better" FA's we passed on. I hope we pass on those lame replacement-level players on multiyear deals going forward, but i'm even more glad we pass on paying 41 year olds elite money.

How do you view minor league splits?

Please name a GM that had a better offseason than Jed last offseason? Mets? Padres? The overwhelming majority of FA signings last year were a bust for all teams, especially the ones we may have been interested in. The idea that a team is going to have zero dollars in dead money is simply unrealistic. If you're going to knock him for Mancini/Barnhart/Smyly then you have to give him credit for Swanson and Bellinger, which were among the 2 best signings of the offseason, and credit for not signing guys like Abreu, Rodon, DeGrom, Verlander, Correa, Rizzo, Bell, Conforto, Benintendi, Syndergaard, Vazquez, Navarez and so far getting the best of the 4 big FA SS at the cheapest price.

That makes sense, probably just tells us Boras' ask for Bellinger is still high enough to be unreasonable for all teams. There's no way the 4 big Boras guys left haven't all received a bunch of interest from teams.

Me thinks they just filled the RHP high end setup role with Neris. They could probably use another LHP in the pen, but they could also be done adding to the pen on MLB deals.

Not sure if this was posted. Moresi says a Bellinger deal doesn't look close with any team at the moment:

Morel can be a really good hitter if he stops trying to aggressively pull every pitch 450ft down the LF line. That should help him with the sliders and slower stuff away. Canario has similar issues, they both pull off pitches significantly IMO. These young strong guys that fall in love with their power won't reach their potential if they don't change their approach.

Source? That seems odd.

If the offseason is a failure its Ricketts' fault. There's only so much you can do when one of your best SP and your best hitter become FA, you have a mediocre bullpen, and you only have about 50m to replace them + make the team better. There was no path to improve this team significantly this offseason compared to last year's team if they stay under the LT unless they possibly started trading away a bunch of their best prospects. Given he also signed Counsell, Hoyer's done well this offseason with the budget limits he seems to have been given from ownership.

Ok so post Neris are we now in the 6th or 7th inning of our offseason?

Aspirations for 88 wins

They were at about 199m before the signing.. 5m buffer gives them 24m left. Just enough for Bellinger

If they sign Bellinger they're right up against the LT, with about 5m in space. That's before any possible incentives, midseason trade, callups etc. If they sign Bellinger they could be done for the offseason if LT is their limit.

His velocity went down by 1.3 mph and his BABIP was very low so we'll see. Don't like the gb% either. Most other metrics are really good though, like whiffs, chase, most batted ball data. Solid signing, didn't think they'd spend this much on a reliever.

Yes I agree my statement was incorrect.

The Dbacks had 1 more win than the Cubs and so were barely above average as a team. They made the WS by getting hot at the right time of year. The Rangers had much better hitting and SP than the Cubs last year, you're right you don't need a great pen if everyone on the team is yanking HR, but they also went out and got Aroldis Chapman. The Cubs also had 10 fewer wins than the Brewers while having a larger run differential. The Brewers played close games and locked down leads. The Cubs don't have a lot of HR or 2B power, they will play quite a few close games. Their offense last year was driven by singles, BB, and speed, we aren't going to blow out games. The Cubs are set up to have about an average rotation and bullpen again and a very similar hitting lineup as 2023. Right now we have basically the exact same pen as last year and it failed us when it counted and we need to do better. Is swapping Fulmer for Fulmer 2.0 and Boxberger for Boxberger 2.0 good enough? Doubtful. The Cubs pen through June 15 was terrible, 24th in ERA in the MLB. 3 out of 6 months having a good pen isn't good enough. Alzolay gets hurt again and we're screwed.