Stratos

Maybe Keegan Thompson

I like Assad, he doesn't throw anything straight and he came up clutch with us last year a bunch. He's projected for a 4 30 ERA and doesn't K a lot of guys, but maybe his stuff plays up a bit. Who knows. Let's hope he just hasn't been lucky.

They'd also have to make a spot on the 40-man for Edwards, while the other guys are already on it.

I think if this rotation ends up being above average it will largely be due to luck. Our only SP's projected for above-average ERA's this season are Steele and Imanaga. Assad, Wicks, Hendricks, and Taillon are all projected for average to above average ERA's well over 4 and I agree with that being the most likely outcomes for all of them. Smyly and Wesneski will provide no help there. We may see Brown and/or Horton down the line this year but they probably don't pitch enough to be difference maker overall. Hopefully we do get some luck like 2022 and some guys overachieve, and the pen does well also. Rooting for Neris, Leiter, and Cuas to have good years, and Alzolay stays healthy.

Eager for an average pitcher like Taillon to get healthy in order to replace an average pitcher like Assad in the rotation to join average pitchers like Hendricks and Wicks. Why sign Montgomery when there's Smyly and Wesneski bumping around? Fans like the longball so does it really matter if it's the opponents who are hitting them?

He used to be decent but he's been terrible for years.

I think Cuas and Little make the final cut. I think Edwards needs an injury to get in. He needs to be on a team where he gets innings.

Yeah I think that's the bench too

Hope it's a bone bruise

I thought Lovelady was recently cut from the ST roster. I think Little is likely on the team. Smyly may also get on "release watch" if he doesn't have a good April.

Not good odds for Carl Jr making it. Interested what they do with Cooper when Wisdom is healthy. We also lack LHB power on the bench for the DH slot, unless they use DH a lot to rest regulars. Mervis is always available to DH to replace Dom Smith.

K% also skews based on walks. K% is calculated by K's divided by plate appearances. That means the K% of a pitcher with a line of 7 IP, 5H, 5 BB, 6K is significantly different than a line of 7 IP, 5H, 1 BB, 6K. Anyways, let's even assume that K% is the better stat, the difference isn't significant and it still doesn't change the argument much. Bottom line is that in AAA, Wicks had a below average K/9 and an average K%, in the MLB he had both a well-below average K/9 and K%, and so far in ST he has a well below average K/9 and I'm not sure what the ST K% is but I assume it's below average. That can always improve, but pretty much every indication so far is that overall he's been throwing below-average stuff. Coupled with average BB/9, HR/9, and ERA/FIP/xFIP and the results or projections haven't exactly been exciting thus far. But let's hope he can improve. As for the "pitch to contact" thing, well that's what guys who throw changeups more than any other pitch and fastballs that don't generate whiffs are supposed to do anyways. I don't expect the K/9 to stay in the 6's, he's projected by all outlets on FG to have a K/9 in the mid-7's. Maybe he does better who knows. Whatever it is, along with all of his other average stats in the small samples thus far, it's another unknown for another SP in this rotation with real potential for average to below average overall results (e.g. ERA) to continue. Let's hope he surpasses the projections. His 4-seamer was crushed last year, which is where most of the HR seem to come from (similar to guys like Taillon and Wesneski) but his sinker had much better results. If that continues maybe he can make an adjustment and start using the sinker more, but I also assume the 4-seamer helps play up his change-up which may pose an issue, unless he can get the change to sink like Hendricks does. I still like the guy but I don't see much more than a solid average pitcher in the short or longterm unless the fastball, control, and/or GB% improve. He has potential to eat some innings though.

Yes that's true, that's why I added "if those players want to stay". But I assume since they're NRI contracts, if some have to go down to Iowa I assume those guys don't go on the 40-man so no big issue there, just the roster crunch in Iowa which I imagine is also an issue, including playing time. If Mervis, McGeary, BJ Murray, and one of Smith/Cooper is down in AAA there's a playing time crunch at 1B/DH. Murray can play 3B but Slaughter is there too, plus Bote fitting in. They have no shortage of position depth, which is great. If I were Smith and Cooper and I weren't on the MLB roster i'd opt out if there's any other market for them. Looks like Belt and Martinez have overvalued themselves. With the tv deals hurting revenue for a bunch of teams plus the disappointing results put up by most FA's signed last year and the general trend of younger players being more valued including more team money going to extensions and therefore less to FA I think all these solid FA's still left on the market have overvalued themselves.

Yeah that's if everyone's healthy. And as you say comes down to whether they want RHB or LHB. As a bat they might like Cooper/Smith over Canario at the moment, but Canario plays OF and they don't really need 4 1B (if including Bellinger). For the 40-man stuff, they'd probably rather trade a 40-man guy like Hodge for a non-40 prospect like they did Horn to make room for a guy they want to keep on the 40 and can be useful on the MLB team now or in the next few months. I think if they really want to keep Cooper, Smith, Peralta, and some interesting non-roster relievers they think can help them this year and those players want to stay, the Cubs will try to find a way.

Cooper would be in for Wisdom I assume unless they think Smith can hit vs LHP for Cooper, Hawkins said they envision Busch platooning to start. Mastro is in for Madrigal unless Mastro is already their 5th bench guy choice, then I guess Bote might replace Madrigal? If Happ starts on the DL to get a few more PA's then Canario is definitely on the team and very likely Smith is on the team too. If Happ is healthy Canario could still make the team, it would be between Canario and Smith for the last bench spot, but I think they probably need a RH bat for DH over a LH bat like Smith since they have Tauchman who can DH vs LHP and for RHP all they'd have is Gomes/Amaya and Mastro. At this point if everyone is healthy it looks like 8 guys vying for 5 bench spots.

I don't really care where they have Opening Day, but profits > tradition for the MLB. Even if Cubs Opening Day were in Korea they'd have some other kind of 2nd Opening Day with their first game at Wrigley.

I think the claim that K% is used more on these forums than K/9 is incorrect. If you're talking about the site articles that could be true I don't know, but I don't write articles. If someone on these forums mentions "K rate", the rate stat they're referring to is probably K/9.

If the Cubs are going to pass on great deals like Chapman and Snell then I can't ever seen them going much over the first LT line, and Ricketts has never done it yet even with a WS caliber core.

How is what I said "wrong"? I said his K-rate is below average at every level since AAA and he's part of the unknowns in our rotation. His K/9 has been below average at AAA, MLB, and so far in ST, which is what i meant by K-rate which everyone should assume since virtually nobody uses K% around here for pitchers. You like Wicks so you dug into his numbers and cherrypicked some stats that agree more with your like of Wicks. Yes obviously 80-something IP above AA isn't large but it isn't tiny either, and the K/9 has been consistently unimpressive and below average at all levels above AA so far, where he was a very advanced SP compared to the hitters he was facing in the A and AA levels. All the projection systems on FanGraphs project him with a K/9 around 7.60, and around league average BB/9, HR/9, and GB%, and an average-ish ERA for a SP around 4.40. Every SP has potential to pitch above expectations, but my point is that there's a lot of real suspect unknowns in our rotation. Any of Hendricks/Taillon/Wicks and even Imanaga could fairly easy end up being league average or worse this year if things don't go their way. But in good faith let's use your stats too and assume the most likely scenario which is that his stuff is average to below average. Since his BB/9 throughout his career has been average, and his career HR/9 and HR/FB has been around average, and has been slightly above average with GB%, then if you're going to make a bet at least for this season then he's most likely going to be around an average SP. A well above average change-up, below average FB, basically average everything else besides mound presence & polish for his age, that's a pretty logical conclusion to point to him most likely being an average SP unless something changes. I'll take it, he's probably a MORP of the Taillon variety or slightly worse in terms of overall results, but let's hope for better.

I think they go as far as their pitching. There's lots of unknowns with Taillon, Imanaga, Hendricks, and Wicks or whoever is #5. The K rate for Wicks has been below average every stint above AA so far. Imanaga is hopefully league average or better, but Taillon and Hendricks have stink potential. Neris could easily regress back to his mean and be pretty league average too.

Interesting idea.... It would be cool if they'd publish the weight and length and dimensions of player's bats. Here's another idea: If Madrigal and Nico have such low K% and high contact rates, why don't they try to swing a heavier bat until such point that their K% gets to closer to league average. Gotta think the average would drop but the power and EV would go up. They could also keep their current bats but stop swinging at any pitches on the edge of the strike zone until 2-strikes to deepen counts and draw more walks.

Good article. I believe there's a 13 max pitchers rule in the MLB now, meaning 13 position players, which is 5 bench players. Amaya and Tauchman are guaranteed a spot on the bench, so that would leave 3 more spots up for grabs and not 2. There's a lot of solid bench options, I really don't know how they'll go. I think they definitely will want another utility INF, so between Madrigal, Mastrobuoni, and Bote. Mastrobuoni's MLB and ST results so far don't live up to what the tools and AAA stats suggest are possible. Disappointed in his fielding, and he comes off as a INF version of Tauchman offensively (with more speed) but that hitting just hasn't been there yet and he hasn't offered any power and not a ton beyond Madrigal, he slaps singles to opposite field more than Tauchman it seems. If healthy I think Madrigal gets the edge because of the glove at 3B to compliment Morel. I think they definitely also want 1 guy who can play 1B and can hit LHP, so a battle between Wisdom and Cooper. Cooper is the more versatile hitter but Wisdom is the more versatile fielder, and they may need him at 3B at some point this season if Morel fails badly defensively or is hurt, though Wisdom has minor league options. Toss up for me there. I think there's a decent chance they take a second 1B for the bench. When looking at DH vs LHP the options would be Morel with Madrigal at 3B, Gomes, or Wisdom/Cooper if Busch stays in at 1B. Vs RHP the option would be Tauchman and that's about it, so they may decide they want a power option to pair with Tauchman, which means Dom Smith or Mervis. I think Smith gets the edge. I think the Cubs are curious about Smith after the recent hamate bone surgery, as am I. But if Counsell wants to use the DH slot to give regulars a rest then the last bench spot could be an OF like Canario or Peralta, guess we'll see.

No no Rcal, you're a meatball. Because when someone disagrees with your opinion, they obviously must be an idiot and they deserve to be insulted. I think that comment shows us who the meatball is. I get your point but I don't personally want to get into the young vs old thing, that's not going to go well, and it sounds like i'm probably at least 20 years or so younger than you anyways. I don't like stereotyping groups of people, I know lots of people under 30 who don't think like you're saying, even if there's a smaller % of them.

Thanks!

Yes he broke the law 19 years ago. He still broke the law, he just can't go to jail for it now. So what's his excuse then for not fessing up now? He continues to repeat the lies he's been telling us the last 25-30 years and you want him on the field at Wrigley? Sammy thinks we're all as dumb as he is to still believe his BS. I don't want him within a quarter mile of any of our players. Canario would arrive at camp next spring with a John Cena physique, acne all over his face, the same bats that weighed 3 ounces lighter, and a mysteriously pale complexion. As for the Ricketts vs Sammy debate, I think they can both go to h*ll. How this sport even continues to get fans or why I still watch it is beyond me. The sport's been so corrupted by money for so long it's wild. How long until we hear some story about how some umps have been bribed over the decades too? The MLB is an a-hole factory where your dreams as a child go to die after you hit puberty and become wise enough to realize that a lot of the people you grew up idolizing are just a bunch of selfish narcissistic pricks that the owners use to rape your wallet by e.g. tearing down Wrigley and rebuilding a cheap replica on the same land as a casino but forget to use house-money to actually field a good team. And we're masochists too busy arguing about owners vs players when they should be told to go straight to h*ll. You think its been fun since 1994 to be a fan? I think it's been an embarrassing never-ending heartbreak dumpster fire.