Stratos
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Everything posted by Stratos
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If I were Ricketts i'd be not disappointed about missing the playoffs the last couple of years (21-22 Jed had some budget cuts and lost the core so more understandable), but i'd be happy he hasn't wasted a lot of my money on bad longterm deals. Jed could have easily spent to win-now and made himself look good then bounced before big contracts started to age poorly. Would be weird to axe him without at least waiting to see the fruits of most the prospects acquired when he was first was hired. I'd give him 2025 and 26. As i've said I think his biggest flaw is overpaying for below-average players on the shorter deals.
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What's nice this offseason is that pretty much all the guys we're losing to FA (Bellinger pending) were all basically dead weight with little to no real value in 2024. That means we can only add value with that money whatever we spend it on, we can't really do any worse. At worst the player(s) we spend on this offseason with that cash are a bust again like Hendricks, Mancini, Neris, Gomes etc. We were free of the Heyward contract finally last offseason but then spent 16m on Hendricks and 10m on Neris. Treading water. Stroman and Bellinger left for FA and we replaced them with Imanaga and Bellinger, which together was mostly a wash from Stro/Belli 2023. We acquired Busch but brought back Gomes who was negative 1.2 WAR. Added PCA but Morel was a bust. We need to stop treading water and add WAR. All the options I can think of to do this: 1) spend better (more efficiently, especially on smaller contracts), 2) trade assets in the minors for MLB players, 3) raise our total payroll, or 4) trade 1 or more expensive players and replace them with cheaper players (e.g. prospects) and spend that money saved to upgrade another position at a net gain in WAR. Example: trade Bellinger and replace with Caissie/Alcantara/Canario, then use that cash to sign a top SP in FA.
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Now would be a good time to look at how we did with last offseason's moves. We can look at what our needs were, who we acquired, and compare how they performed per their contracts versus the other options Jed had last offseason. Hindsight is 20/20 of course. Per my mediocre memory, our needs were: CF, 1B, 3B, SP, relievers. We also dumped Rossy for Counsell. ----------------------------------- I can start with CF: Options were Bellinger, Bader, Kiermaier, or going with PCA (after a terrible Sept debut) Jed's move: Bellinger, 3 years w/ high AAV with opt outs. Result: Bellinger did fine, WAR was suppressed by injury & playing DH for about 20% of the season. Bader, Kiermaier, and other options did poorly. PCA came up to field and run excellently but overall hit below-average. Transaction grade at the time: B+. Grade post-2024: B-
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It's a deciding factor on whether he's more or less valuable than Murphy.
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Murphy was hurt so his overall stats this year aren't particularly reflective of his ability. The previous 2 seasons he was a 5 WAR catcher. With a backup catcher that's potentially 6 WAR out of the catcher position, which is a massive upgrade over the negative WAR we got this year. I wouldn't bank on that but wouldn't bank on 4-5 WAR out of Swanson again either. Both are the same age and could start regressing at any time. Murphy is about 10m AAV cheaper. Swanson is replaceable with Nico, and Shaw needs a position to play anyways. A 5 WAR catcher isn't replaceable within the org or in FA nor anything within about 3 WAR of that. If a better trade were available for a younger/cheaper catcher i'm sure Jed would take it. Soler could be traded if we wanted. Even if we had to eat some money we still likely save money between the difference in Swanson and Murphy's AAV. We could use Soler's power at DH but not wild about his age and contract.
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So far during his reign Ricketts has supported going over the tax line to try a push a winning group of players over the top, not to try to patch holes in a loser. Would be nice if it were different but can't say I blame him. Jed has more than enough resources to get into the playoffs. The Brewers have the smallest market in the NL if i'm not mistaken and a crummy payroll.
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Don't worry they'll be back under this year.
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Firing Harris was probably needed.
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They need to make the 1st 2 rounds more games. 162 games and then 2 of 3 or 3 of 5 is just nonsensical. If they need to take a week off the regular season or add more rest days during the season just do it.
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I probably do this trade.
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Yeah but if its a money dump they don't have to get anything for Bellinger. They could get some crummy A-ball non-prospect and eat a few million and get some takers. I don't mind if he comes back, but i might prefer a bigger HR bat, and a change to our offensive formula probably wouldn't hurt. Get the best hitter you can and they can DH if need be, put Suzuki in RF if we need to.
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Agree with this. If the Cubs got just average WAR out of 3B and catcher they would have been pushing around 88-89 wins. If the pen and/or offense wasn't terrible for months they'd be over 90 wins. It's obviously really bad for a team when a bad player is getting hundreds of PA's and can negate much of the gains from acquiring a great player. A great player doesn't hurt obviously, but if you're looking to add 5 WAR to the team there's more than 1 way to skin a cat.
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If they want a bat upgrade from Bellinger I think they'd be able to trade him, especially if they ate a few milliojn of salary.
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I'm a bit worried about his history of high BB/9. No data to back this but it seems to me that one of the most volatile stats year to year for relievers (besides ERA of course) is often their BB rate. I'd imagine its not easy to find your consistent release point throwing an inning at a time, and on different mounds. Scott doesn't instill confidence that way, though he's trending better obviously. I like his GB%.
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Matt ShawKevin AlcantaraCam SmithOwen CaissieCade HortonMoises BallesterosJefferson RojasJames TriantosAlexander CanarioJaxon WigginsDerniche ValdezLuis VazquezMichael AriasDrew GrayCristian HernandezBJ Murray JrFernando CruzPedro RamirezBrennen DavisPablo Aliendo
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Would you like to try that post again without being weirdly aggressive for no reason? I don't respond to this nonsense.
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I think he probably isn't very good. Too many gopher balls.
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No idea but we have none of them as of today LOL
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I could be wrong about Hodge too, didn't really look at his minor league numbers. He's had some serious walk issues both last year and in AAA this year (small sample). Can't count on him either. So its a JAG-fest in the pen right now.
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I think this FO puts a very low priority on relievers even as prospects, and I get the logic on that compared to every other position, but we've also been paying the price for that. They trade or waive them like candy. As it stands we only have 1 seemingly effective above-average reliever and possibly 2 if Merryweather is back and effective which are both question marks. We probably have 1 or 2 effective SP who can also go to the pen. Brown is a late-inning guy if needed but could be our best #5 SP option. You can fill the bottom half of a pen with JAGs no problem but we still need to figure out the 8th inning and have some depth in case of inevitable injuries. You're right that building a pen in FA isn't the best strategy, you end up overpaying a lot for guys who are genuinely good. And guys like Fulmer, Boxberger were just average relievers when signed, basically JAGs not really worth investing millions on. Neris was a slightly above-average reliever at best and well into age-regression years, no idea why they signed him to that deal unless they thought a career year at age 34 was legit even though the xFIP was pedestrian.
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These guys are up for arbitration, plus Alzolay (who will def get non-tendered), any of them could get non-tendered: Yency Almonte (5.143): $2.2MM Julian Merryweather (4.109): $1.3M Trey Wingenter (4.049): $1.4MM Nate Pearson (4.005): $1.4MM Jimmy Herget (3.069): $900K Colten Brewer (3.063): $800K Keegan Thompson (3.006): $1MM
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Besides Hodge the pen is filled with JAGs. Merryweather hopefully comes back strong but hard to say, can we count on that? Between Brown and Assad, whoever isn't starting should help i agree. No idea how effective or not Wicks is as a pitcher. I'm not assuming he's above average. Horton is creeping down the road to Brennen Davis territory so the Cubs can't count on him to help. Lopez, Tyson Miller, Roberts etc are JAGs. Wesneski is who he is. I don't think our pen is particularly good and the depth isn't very good. Would be nice to have 3 guys in the late innings to count on and build around that. Probably isn't happening though this offseason. Besides Hodge our record developing relief prospects is terrible, or we ship them to other teams
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On the other hand, fielding tool trades by FG and MLB.com etc are notoriously inaccurate sometimes. We don't really know how Busch throws from seeing him at 1B but his hands are solid and his reactions are too. Might have below-average range after the first step or 2 though at 2B. If he could make the throws he'd probably be solid at 3B given his ability to react and catch hard-hit balls at 1B. Don't see him moving off 1B though, especially with Shaw and Triantos around plus Nico.
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Can't they just trade Bellinger if he comes back? Might have to eat a few million but shouldn't be a barrier. Doubt they trade him though unless they landed another big OF contract, which I also have some doubts. I don't mind Suzuki at DH though
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Well if you're going to ask me nicely like that how can I say no!
