Stratos
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Everything posted by Stratos
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123 year old buildings. This is pretty dumb.
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You're judging Drury on 167 PA's, his stats this season are largely irrelevant given the sample size. We'd probably need the guy for a few months next season until Shaw is ready. Shaw has good surplus potential on a team desperate for surplus, i wouldn't block him to pay a guy who will be age 32-34 hitting decline years. If they want someone quality on OD then trade for a guy like Parades.
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Interesting. Given we have Shaw probably ready later next season i'd go Drury and put that 20m somewhere else, maybe Soto. Just not into giving that much money to 32+ y/o position guys. Agree to disagree. People here don't like this idea but I'd even try Busch there for half a season with Bellinger at 1B. Busch has the hands and reaction time for 3B. Land Soto and put him RF, he's doing fine there this season. Try to trade Soto at age 30.
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He's only played 167 PA's this year because he was injured earlier. His wRC+ in a sample of a 1.5 months of PA's is largely meaningless.
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Unless he comes on a shortterm deal I don't see the Cubs signign Chapman. Too old for longterm, pass.
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I'd take a risk on Baty, but it would be nice to acquire a 3B that we think can perform immediately in 2025. Longterm project at 3B doesn't do much for us with Shaw in the wings. I'd be fine with a veteran holdover at 3B to start 2025. Brandon Drury is a FA this winter, could be had on a 1-year maybe for not much, and probably available this deadline for not much. Had a hamstring injury earlier this year.
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I'd do that trade without thinking,.
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Matt Shaw? haha
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Fear has nothing to do with it. How are they going to get a decent starter for a replacement player as you say? You can't make both arguments at the same time. Why would they trade a guy if they need him? We need depth and, as of now, a DH and backup middle infielder. How much do you expect to get for a guy who's an ok DH that sucks at fielding & having a 96 wRC+ year at the plate?
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I wouldn't trade Morel, he's decent backup at 2B/SS in case of injury. If Shaw or Triantos come up and DH is covered by someone who can hit as well as Morel then he'd be expendable.
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Well he's not "replacement level" in terms of being a replacement player, he's an above-average MLB starter. He has value to contending teams right now looking for SP, especially while having a good season and his contract. Good relievers also have trade value at the deadline, but good relievers can also be had in any offseason. We have trade leverage because above-average SP at the deadline are a bit scarce and teams want them, but during the offseason in FA they aren't as scarce, they come at-cost and acquired without giving up another player.
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They've done well with Taillon and Imanaga on value, i have some confidence they can find more. Taillon is a career 3.92 career ERA SP, which is solid, but can be replaced at good value just about any offseason. If they can get something for him worth the bother then sure i'd trade him. Taillon has 2 years of control left at a good salary, i'm sure they can get something pretty good back for that.
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We don't have to use WAR as a measure then, because sure WAR may not encompass 100% of a player's value in theory. My argument is essentually that every FO's job in terms of payroll is generally to maximize the talent on the team per the budget they're given. I'm using WAR to measure talent, but yes there's some intangibles and other things to consider. Jed's been very careful with money on guys like Taillon, Imanaga etc to maximize value but more careless with Mancini, Smyly, Barnhart etc. He needs to be even more disciplined on value, not less. We also need more surplus via good young players, which seems to be coming, and we'd have more this season without the injuries to almost all of our young pitchers.
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That's like saying after a month of play in the regular season that there's no correlation between hitting talent and BA and SLG because some bad hitter hit .350 in a month and some great hitters hit .220. Run the same playoffs back 100 times and you'll find correlation. Randomless/luck of small samples doesn't change that.
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I think Bellinger will probably be fine, he just hasn't found the HR stroke this year, he's been off just a bit on pitches he usually cranks.
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Measured by what? WAR?
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I disagree about correlation between WAR and post-season success. Small samples like 1 month of playoffs or 5 or 7 game series do lead to a lot of randomness though and the best teams don't always win. WAR is an individual statistic but team WAR and other team stats aren't. There's a fairly strong correlation in the regular season between team WAR and team wins.
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How does a GM maximize wins over the short and longterm?
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2024 MLB Draft Day 2 Thread
Stratos replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
2nd and 3rd round picks sound pretty lame. -
They could be sellers and buyers and position themselves for 2025+ while in theory remaining in the race. The issue is that don't really have a lot to sell even if they for whatever reason wanted to tank (unless they wanted to start moving position guys) nor is it worth going all-in on this team.
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Maximizing WAR per dollar spent is how you win the most games given the payroll you have (plus some intangibles thrown in the mix). The problem is Jed has wasted tens of millions on several low WAR players with barely above replacement tools who typically get released or benched/demoted mid-season. Wasting money is absurd, and that's what Hoyer has done with several signings, luckily not longterm ones. Fringe players filling out the bottom of the roster should be low cost guys on the scrap heap with potential or trading for career AAA guys with potential to contribute like Tauchman, Wisdom, Tepera etc
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Jed has spent money and payroll. His job is to literally maximize the WAR per million spent. The issue isn't avoiding terrible mega contracts to get stars, its that he's been really inconsistent at value-spending in FA, while also not having a ton of surplus from young players. Jed has done well with with his 3+ year acquisitions like Imanaga, Seiya, Taillon. He extended Happ and Nico. But he hasn't done the same care with value with low-end talent like Smyly, Mancini, Barnhart, Hendricks, Neris etc. The Billy Beane's A's or the Rays never went out and spend 9.5m AAV on Smyly or 7.5m on Mancini or 6 million on a washed up Arrieta etc, all guys with borderline replacement talent/tools.
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Even if we do sell there isn't much to move realistically if we're to compete in 2025 on Opening Day. Taillon, Hendricks, and maybe a reliever (the latter 2 won't demand much). They could even move Taillon if they get an appealing offer and hope they get lucky with whomever replaces him in the rotation the final 2 months. May just make more sense to stay put and roll the dice and hope to get hot in the last 2 months for a wildcard spot and possibly add a reliever, catcher and/or 3b at the deadline that don't cost anything significant. Can't see them adding a Candelario type.
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I think its possible some of the injuries Morel has played through this year including the hand may have had some effect on his offense, as well as an unusually low BABIP that should come back up. That said, he still may not be more than an average MLB player, and his inability to adjust to non-fastballs on the outer half limits him. I really doubt his aptitude to make the adjustments to improve the way he needs to, and the lack of skills in the field. A couple of weeks ago I saw a replay of a line-drive down the 3b line he missed in the field. He jumps on the balls of his feet right before every pitch, and on this play he was literally in mid-air of his hop when the batter made contact with the ball and so was totally unprepared to make a play on it. These kinds of things add up.
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2024 MLB Draft Day 1 Thread
Stratos replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I probably put him ahead of Triantos based on the power and glove. Triantos seems to have only 2 plus tools: hit and arm, and probably ends up with a walk-rate below the league average due to the contact ability. Triantos could end up a .270+ hitter, 10-15 HR and below average defense. I think the upside on Cam Smith is higher because of the power and glove but not quite as high floor.
