Rcal10
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Jim Bowden's FA Contract predictions
Rcal10 replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I think I would rather trade for Cease and not sign a second pen arm. The Cease trade drops Assad into the pen, if Assad isn’t in the trade, which would be the second pen arm you talked about. If your number was $70M including the pen arm and Cease cost $15M annual, saving $6M by not adding a pen arm would put them just under the $80M they will have to spend. And they would have a great 5 man staff. -
Jim Bowden's FA Contract predictions
Rcal10 replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Which Jansen? Pen arm or catcher? Either way, if it is the pen arm then they trade for a catcher. If it is the catcher they trade for a pen arm. Sneaky good off season if they added someone like Mountcastle as a right handed bench option. No “WOW” signing or major trade, but a pretty solid off season. -
To be fair, they had no chance with Ohtani. He wasn’t going anywhere. Judge was pretty set on NY as well. As for Turner, IMO, he doesn’t fit the criteria of a guy you break the bank on and change your entire FO philosophy to acquire. Besides that there were rumors even before free agency started that he wanted to be in Philly. He is a solid ballplayer but far from a generational talent. Soto is the last chance at a generational talent at such a young age. If there is ever a time to throw “stupid money” at a player now is the time.
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And maybe he will sign Eovaldi for 2 or 3 years and it turns out to be a good deal.
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But if you signed Fried for 5 years you have him at 33,34, and 35 the last 3 years of his deal. And, honestly I think he will get 6 years. So add 36 too. So rather than worry about Eovaldi now you have to worry about an aging pitcher in a few years. And on top of that, the aging pitcher at that time will be being paid more than Eovaldi. Plus, you run the risk of him getting hurt even before he gets older. Now if that happens you have a guy in a 6 year deal for a high annual salary who is injured. For me I would rather take the short term risk who also happens to be a right handed pitcher and will cost less annual and in years, and not cost the Cubs a penalty because of QO. Bottom line is there is risk everywhere with pitchers. But the best ones want to get paid well into their mid to late 30’s.
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I get that. I know they will be in on him. I also know they have a lot of dead money coming off. But they also have some good players to replace. And they were substantially over last year. Will they do it again? Probably. My point was not so much the Mets won’t be in on Soto, it was actually that there is no reason the Cubs shouldn’t be. They can spend as much on Soto as the Mets can. I also am pretty sure the Xubs won’t be in on Soto. Just saying it shouldn’t be a forefone conclusion that if the Mets wanted him the Cubs can’t do anything about it. They can. They can pay him more…
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Moises with a double and a homer today. Both balls crushed to right/right center. Sitting right behind home plate. Ball sounds different off his bat.
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- moises ballesteros
- jonathon long
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You are 100% correct on the Mets. But they are losing 2 middle of the line up bats and 3 starting pitchers along with that salary they have coming off the books. So they have a few more places to add players with that money. The Cubs are basically losing Hendricks. And they have $50M (give or take) to replace him and then add. And if Bellinger opts out that number goes to $75M (give or take), but they have to replace Bellinger. And frankly, they actually have whatever they want to have if they ever decide to play like a major market team plays. If they want Soto they can get him. They just have to change the FO philosophy on team building. And that won’t happen.
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But why? Why can’t the Cubs just give him the most money and most years? Why is it a foregone conclusion that if the NY teams and the Dodgers want a guy the Cubs can’t outbid them? I know they won’t. But I don’t know why they get a pass if one of those other 3 teams gets him. I give them a pass on Ohtani. He wasn’t leaving LA. I don’t think Soto is locked in to any one city.
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But the problem is younger guys similar to an older guy in results would want a longer contract that would take them through his older years. Using Eovaldi and Fried in this example, my guess is Fried gets a 6 year deal. So you have him 34-37 years old anyway. Just not next year. Eovaldi would probably get a 2-3 year deal. Sure he may drop off. But Fried could also drop off towards the end of his contract. But along with the risk of Fried falling off older, he is also a risk to get hurt even before he gets older. Sure, if the discussion is Eovaldi on a 2 or 3 year deal or Fried on a 2 or 3 year deal, give me the younger guy every time. But that isn’t the choice. The younger guy will want to be paid until 35-36. So taking the younger guy on a longer contract is just kicking the can down the road on the risk if having an older pitcher who breaks down. Between Eovaldi and Fried, IMO Eovaldi is way more likely the guy who the Cubs sign.
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Pretty much my thoughts. Maybe I pick Eovaldi over Flaherty and maybe add O’Neill in your potential bat signings if Bellinger opted out. But for the most part, this is about what I would expect too. If he opts in I would like to see Mountcastle as that right handed bench bat. Of course they can also trade prospects for a bat and sign or trade for a second pitcher if Bellinger opts out. They have enough minor league assets to use for bigger trades IMO. And if there ever was a year to do it, this would be the year.
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I would like to believe Jed will not care about the penalty for signing a guy with a QO. And as you said, he did so with Dansby. However that was also the year he lost Contreras and got a pick back for him signing elsewhere. That will not be the case this year. While not wanting to lose the pick(s) without gaining an pick back, might not be the only reason not to go after Fried, that on top of having to give him a longer contract, higher AAV, and him being a 3rd lefty at the top of the rotation might be reason enough to look into Eovaldi over Fried. Eovaldi doesn’t come with the QO penalty, is a righty, will sign for less years, a lower AAV and fits what they don’t have in the rotation. A hard thrower. And he is pretty good as well. Seems to be more the type of guy Jed targets.
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I think Eovaldi/Flahery is way more likely than Fried. Besides the QO, I think the length of the contract needed for Fried versus Eovaldi comes into play. Maybe not with Flaherty. I also think they would rather have a right handed starter. I don’t see the top 3 pitchers in the rotation being left handed. Plus Wicks will get some starts. For me, there are too many reasons Jed would go after Fried. If not Eovaldi/Flaherty I would guess a trade for a starter is more likely than Fried, as well.
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Nico Hoerner underwent successful right flexor tendon surgery
Rcal10 replied to KCCub's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Ask Lonzo Ball. -
If they want better than Taillon I would rather he already be better, not “may be better after the Cubs work with him”. That said, I like Keller. I would be fine with him as a MOR starter, for the right price. I am just not assuming he is better than Taillon. He is better than Hendricks, and that is who he would be replacing. So the staff would be better. But if the FO goal is someone ahead of Taillon I would rather they aim higher.
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Is he better than Taillon? Over the last 3 years his era and whip are higher than Taillon. He is younger, throws harder and probably has better “stuff”. But are the end results better? Does he give up less runs per game? IMO, they need to aim higher than Keller if the goal is “better than Taillon”.
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Straight without deferrals I can see your 14/$500M. Puts the average over $35M a year. That sounds much closer than the $30M average. But like you said, he may be just peaking. With some deferred money I can see him getting to !600M, if he so chooses to agree to deferring money.
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And with deferrals he got $700M for 10 years. But even using your figure, that is $46M a year. Judge for $40M a year. Why wouldn’t Soto get at least $35M a year? And if they get creative with his contract why couldn’t he get to $600M over 15 years? I feel you are undervaluing just how good Soto is. Honestly it all depends in how many teams are in on him.
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Oh, I don’t have hope the Cubs will get him. We agree there. And that isn’t even a knock against the FO. No fan base should feel good about their chances of getting Soto. Sure, the usual suspects (Dodgers, Yankees, Mets)probably have a higher chance, but even still it is probably no more than a 25-30% chance for any of those teams. With the Cubs I would put it at 5%. So not getting my hopes up.
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Yesterday, watching him hit that game winning homer, my first thought was 15/$600M. But then when Stratos came in at the 15/$450M he made me reconsider and made me think maybe I was crazy with that amount. I know Stratos is low. I think he could very well get that $600M if a bidding war starts and if there are some creative contract offers with deferred money. I could see a team going that high with deferred money so that his annual comes in around $35M for payroll purposes. Not as egregious as Ohtani, but some sort of creative financing. He is a generational talent. And as you said, no one coming down the pipeline like him. So I telling what happens. I just wish the Cubs would be in on it, no matter the cost.
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But Trout got that as an extension. He didn’t go to free agency and have teams bid on him. If he has he probably would have gone over that amount. Soto will get more than $30M a year as an average, no matter how many years he signs for, IMO. Probably closer to $35M. And he will most likely get that average for more than 12 years. Maybe not $550M for 15. That might be too high. But when teams start bidding wars, who knows. 🤷
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I think you are way light on this. If he is getting $450M it would be for 11 years. If he goes 15 years IMO we are talking $550M. Maybe more if teams get into a bidding war.
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I don’t have a real issue with them not dumping at the deadline. And I am not sure if this small amount of money they went over the LT will affect this year and the next, but I do think he should have been under. Whether it cost them a few million more over the next few years if they are over those years, or it cost them draft picks or IFA money, or whatever else it may cost, I would think if they were this close they should have been able to go under. Trade Smyle and pick up all but $300,000 of his contract. Someone would have taken him for basically nothing. Trade Tauchman, same think. Pick up whatever was needed to make a deal and get under the LT. Neither would have dented their playoff chances. IMO it was a mistake made by the FO. Is it egregious? No. But it was a mistake.
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What? Ok, whatever. In any event, Weaver signed for $2M with a team option. So whatever make him this player you knew would be good was missed by 29 other teams. Actually I am pretty sure the Yankees got much more out of him than they expected, as well. So he fooled 30 teams but you are not surprised. The point I was making originally anyway, was Weaver was signed as a low budget signing. He is a perfect example of a guy who would be considered a dumpster dive signing, who turned out very good. But I still wouldn’t assume he would be good next year. Regardless of what you saw as good on Weavwr, results were not good, prior to this year. You said he stays healthy, is versatile and throws a lot of pitches well and yet he signed for $2M. If all you are saying was true, would he have cost a whole lot more? Are all organizations just stupid? Or is Weaver JAG? I would say JAG. And this is nothing more than just taking a chance on a low budget guy a team like the Yankees can cut if he sucked.
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Weaver has been in the majors since 2016. So any MILB success or tools he showed were a long time ago. His last 4 years in the majors he has sucked. As I said, I give the Yankees credit for signing him and him being successful. But it was nothing more than a roll of the dice. It worked this year. I wouldn’t bet in would work again next year. Tools or not, he has been pretty bad in the majors. He was a dumpster dive signing that worked in 2024.
