Nobody can say, cuz it's a pretty uncommon circumstance. Ultimately, Maddon had every right to opt out without Tampa receiving any compensation. So my best guess is that it'd be a fine. It's pretty unlikely that tampering is proven, imo. Well yeah but it would be a bit more punitive if they can prove Maddon opted out because he knew the Cubs were offering him their job. When Maddon opted out, the Twins were the only team with an open managerial spot, so it immediately seems fishy that Maddon would opt out of his job when there was only 1 team that was definitely looking for a manager. Especially because like a week before he stated how he was dedicated to staying with Tampa Bay long term and abruptly changed course. I don't think the Cubs tampered at all (based on Theo's extremely confident remarks and the promise of full cooperation), I'm just saying why the Rays might get more compensation than a fine if the Cubs were caught tampering. Also, considering their willingness to give the MLB investigators full cooperation, if they maintained their innocence to the investigators and were later found to have tampered, the MLB could suspend Theo and Jed and/or take away draft picks/draft and IFA pool money. It's been reported that Joe Maddon made an offer to re-up his contract in Tampa and Rays management declined. http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24782084/before-taking-big-cubs-deal-maddon-made-olive-branch-offer-to-rays yeah, this is really the cubs' best argument. the stuff with the lack of openings looks somewhat shady, but it's really easy to say that maddon opted out because he wanted to make more money and thought he'd get it from the rays if he were a free agent. they refused to pay him what he wanted so then he went and found somebody who would.