frostwyrm

Shoulda traded Z and rebuilt in 2007, but that ship has sailed. Hendry has totally committed the Cubs to winning within a 2 year window and it's too late to turn back. Z will get whatever he wants.

Ron Coomer. Slow fatass who only played corner IF positions and put up numbers that would only be acceptable from a good defensive SS or C.

Nope. Worse, actually. Last April Miller made a play with the Brewers that still sticks in my mind. On a medium-depth flyball to left-center Miller tagged up at first base and advanced to second base standing up. That blew my mind. That was the moment when the full awfulness of Juan Pierre's throwing arm became clear to me.

Offering Z for ARod would have been the first thing I did after deciding to use 2007 for rebuilding.

Marquis becomes the 2nd most expensive middle reliever in Cubs history. Kerry was 1st.

Will the Cubs even be in the FA market in 2008? After Z's extension we'll have about $100M committed for 2008. If the payroll stays at $110M we'll have only $10M to replace Barrett, buy a bench, and pay Murton. Maybe the Trib will increase the payroll. Otherwise the only FA's we could afford will be warm bodies to fill out the bench. I suppose Hendry could just backload the living crap out of Z's deal.

By midseason the Pierre trade will look like a complete disaster even to casual fans. Nolasco will easily outproduce his replacement Jason Marquis at a fraction of the cost.

Myself, I'd prefer LF: Cabrera CF: Beltran RF: Vlad :D I'd like to know if back in 2004 Hendry knew the Cubs payroll was slated for a big increase over the next 2 years. I hope he was ignorant of it because failing to give Beltran $119M looks pretty stupid in light of Soriano's $136M deal. Also, passing on Vlad because we had Alou and wanted Maddux seemed utterly asinine even at the time.

You want a balanced argument? Okay, people talk about Hendry's bad luck, but how about his good luck? In 2003 he inherited two starting pitchers(Z, Prior) who delivered a full season of superstar-level pitching despite having only half a season of big league experience. That is one gigantic piece of good fortune there. If those guys matured at a normal rate they wouldn't have peaked before 2005. And of course Hendry was lucky enough to take over right as ownership decided to bump up the payroll, which has remained higher than any other payroll in the division, and it's still rising. If you total up all his good and bad luck Hendry deserves no sympathy. He should have been shoved into the same Greyhound bus as MacPhail.

Myers for 3/25.75 is a steal compared to 3/21 for Jason Marquis.

I usually don't like to give anyone a starting job based on past achievements but Prior's upside is just so much higher than anyone else's on the staff, except Z and maybe Hill. If Prior is fully healthy I tell him he'll have to pitch his way out of the rotation, otherwise he's in.

I just don't understand why he didn't play winter ball. He could have demonstrated that he can still reach the fences, still play acceptable defense, and that his body is not too fragile. And obviously it would have shown that he seriously cares about doing the necessary work to become a good player again.

By the sounds of it, it's Texas or the highway. How has Sammy done Spring Training wise in his career? Well, back when he was good he would miss the first few days. I don't think he'll do the prima donna thing this time around. I think he already has. He waited til late December to start training for his comeback. He's still too cocky, he thinks he can turn on the old magic with a minimal effort. In Sammy's position any humble human being would have trained his ass off all summer and played winter ball. I thought I remember hearing really early in the offseason that he was actually working out in the DR. Note the date. I remember when this story came out because rotoworld posted a sarcastic comment about it. http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-dominican-sosa&prov=ap&type=lgns http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_previousnews.aspx?sport=MLB&id=1538

It all depends on what he's trying to do. We have kids throwong right now and you can see the ones that don't have confidence in their stuff or fastball, sometimes very easily. The question was how does he throw without confidence. Could you explain? Does he scratch his brow alot, does he not make eye contact, does he hang his head down low, does he scuttle to and frow, does his head - hang - low. Bum BUM! Think Spalding in Caddyshack. "Double Farts!"

Because when healthy he's a very good pitcher. But if he's healthy.. doesn't he already have a spot in the rotation.. why does he need to contend? because he needs to prove healthy. I'm confused. If he's pitching, doesn't that prove he's healthy? So why does he need to contend for a spot in the rotation if he can pitch? He pitched last year-9 starts. He wasn't healthy enough to be effective though, and had a 7.21 ERA. He has to prove that he was healthier then he was last year, not to be able to just pitch but to actually be effective doing so. I agree with Omar. If Prior is healthy he ought to able to throw all his pitches, which are all excellent. Even if his mechanics are a bit off right now he should still easily be good enough to be one of our top 5 starting pitchers, and he should see enough action in spring training to smooth out his mechanics. If Prior is 100% healthy you have to pencil him into the top 5.

By the sounds of it, it's Texas or the highway. How has Sammy done Spring Training wise in his career? Well, back when he was good he would miss the first few days. I don't think he'll do the prima donna thing this time around. I think he already has. He waited til late December to start training for his comeback. He's still too cocky, he thinks he can turn on the old magic with a minimal effort. In Sammy's position any humble human being would have trained his ass off all summer and played winter ball.

Nobody wants Pagan? According to Dusty he was one of the horses we missed. How can you leave a horse off the roster?

No pitchers gained through FA are going to be a bargain. But Howry and Eyre could be both easily moved w/o eating salary. Probably true. The market is sky high right now, and Howry had a good season. Eyre wasn't particulary good(.800 OPS allowed) but the market always overvalues lefties. Eyre was pretty good when he wasn't injured (or nursing a boo boo or 2). If you look at his splits he did great until then. Eyre really needs to get in shape. I think he dropped 20+ lbs this offseason. We'll see. The guy was happy to work under Dusty and Larry b/c they didn't make you run a lot... :lol: Dude was fat.

No pitchers gained through FA are going to be a bargain. But Howry and Eyre could be both easily moved w/o eating salary. Probably true. The market is sky high right now, and Howry had a good season. Eyre wasn't particulary good(.800 OPS allowed) but the market always overvalues lefties.

One of Hendry's worst traits is grossly overvaluing fluky good seasons from mediocre talents. Eyre, Howry, Dempster, Neifi, and obviously Soriano have all gotten fat contracts based largely on one season. Hollandsworth was named an opening day starter based on a quarter season's worth of AB's. Macias parlayed an 11-20 streak into 2 full years with the Cubs. Burnitz got a starting gig based on playing one half of one season at Coor's Field. Howry's been good so far but he's only one third of the way thru his contract. Can't really say Howry's been a bargain, since he ought to be good considering he's being paid top dollar for his role.

I'm setting the bar pretty high for this season to be called a success. The Cubs are going to have to make the playoffs, period. Anything less than that, with the money they spent, will be considered a failure. After Z gets his Zito contract our window becomes 2007 and 2008. Beyond that we're screwed until 2011, and even then we'll have some handicaps. I really believe we have to win a World Series in the next 2 seasons. Anything less would constitute utter failure. This is small market thinking. I don't see the Dodgers, Yankees or Red Sox losing any sleep over long term deals so I don't see why the Cubs should either. In any case, I am glad the window is 2007 and 2008. I am sick of hearing about long term plans. Let's do it now. Even if your sky is falling pessism is right, it just means that they are screwed until 2011 after the window closes in 2008. It is has been 98 years since a World Series, so what's another 3 seasons after 2008 as a trade off for taking a shot RIGHT NOW? Even in 2011 it won't be easy, seeing as Fonz and Z will be eating up $40 million of the payroll until we are all old men. Also, Aram is due $14.6M in 2011. We'll probably have to eat most of that to ship him off to the AL.

At a bare minimum we'll need another $20 million unless we have an unexpected bumper crop of productive rookies. That figure assumes we have no health disasters with our expensive guys.

I'm setting the bar pretty high for this season to be called a success. The Cubs are going to have to make the playoffs, period. Anything less than that, with the money they spent, will be considered a failure. After Z gets his Zito contract our window becomes 2007 and 2008. Beyond that we're screwed until 2011, and even then we'll have some handicaps. I really believe we have to win a World Series in the next 2 seasons. Anything less would constitute utter failure.

Hendry's job depends on winning this year. That's the impetus behind everything, along with the ratings/popularity slippage and possible sale. Big moves were going to happen one way or the other, and rebuilding was never an option for 2007. Not saying I like it, but it is what it is. Meant to say 2008 in my quote, I went back and changed the post. I do think 2007 could have been used for rebuilding if only we didn't have a GM who is desperate to save his job, which is one of many reasons why Hendry should have been dumped by now.

I agree it's got a good chance to be an albatross towards the end, and Hendry should have broke the bank for Beltran and not Soriano, but it is impossible to know if he had the green light to do so back then. Plus, with the way Soriano is built and the shape he keeps himself in, he might not be so terrible at 37 and 38. Unfortunately, you can't pick and choose who is going to be the best free agent in a given off season. I believe Hendry when he says that if the Cubs didn't pay Soriano that much money, someone else would have. We see it happen every year. Why should this season be any different? So given that, the choice isn't between Soriano at 8/136 or Soriano at 6/90. The choice is Soriano at 8/136 or not Soriano and who knows who else. Maybe Drew, maybe not. There was no clear overture from his camp that he was willing to play for the Cubs. If not Drew in CF or RF, then who? The drop-off was pretty steep after J.D. So it seems to me that you aren't looking at these contracts from a realistic point of view. Of course Soriano is overpaid and in comparison to other FA contracts signed last year or the year before, it looks ridiculous. But in reality, every market is different and impossible to anticipate. And who knows what a bargain will be next year or 2-3 years down the road. Plus, if you had to choose between Soriano or who knows what else, which in reality may have been the choice Hendry faced, which would you choose? Easy choice for me: use 2008 to rebuild, look to make a run in 2009. Not for one second would I have considered going 8/136 for Alfonso Soriano. This entire spending spree would been postponed for a year. Z would already have been traded for ARod. No way do I give any pitcher a Zito type deal, which is what Z will be getting soon. Neither of Lilly/Marquis would be here, especially not Marquis. IMO Marquis is purely a panic move to save Hendry's job. Aram gave us a hometown discount, so I guess I would have kept him. Pie and EPat would have all of 2008 to show us what they've got, and all the young starting pitchers would be given a chance to step up and claim a rotation slot for 2009. Obviously Pierre should have been traded for a prospect who could have helped the big team in 2009. Here's the problem with that. One of Hendry's "cards" to get Aram to stay was probably telling him how the purse was opened and they were going to be really aggressive this off-season. As Aram probably wanted to be on a team that would compete to win now. I do agree with you on Lilly and Marquis. However I am happy we are in a win now mode. If the price of keeping Aram was handing out all these insane contracts to win now then I would have let Aram walk, as painful as that would have been. He's not Albert Pujols. You don't base a team's entire future around placating Aramis Ramirez. Also, it's very possible Aram might have been persuaded to stay if he believed the Cubs were making a big push in 2008. Edit: changed date.