frostwyrm

I don't think it makes Hendry look dumber. I think the Tribune told Hendry they were opening the purse strings because they knew if Hendry spent a bunch of money this year he would raise the value of the Cubs. I read somewhere that after this offseason the Cubs value has gone up to around $600 million. How does spending a bunch of money in an inflated personnel market make a team more valuable? Are the Royals more valuable because they signed Gil Meche? I'm not an economics wiz but I always thought organizational debt was an undesirable thing for a business. I don't understand. Investing $21M in a crapbucket player like Jason Marquis is considered a good thing? In that case Hendry should have signed Jose Macias to a 3/30 deal and pushed the team's value up even further. In all seriousness, can somebody with an econ background explain how all these huge financial committments to players are supposed to have increased the value of the team? I'm completely baffled as to how this works. I always thought debt was a bad thing for a business, and absence of debt was a good thing. Have I been wrong all these years?

I don't think it makes Hendry look dumber. I think the Tribune told Hendry they were opening the purse strings because they knew if Hendry spent a bunch of money this year he would raise the value of the Cubs. I read somewhere that after this offseason the Cubs value has gone up to around $600 million. How does spending a bunch of money in an inflated personnel market make a team more valuable? Are the Royals more valuable because they signed Gil Meche? I'm not an economics wiz but I always thought organizational debt was an undesirable thing for a business. I don't understand. Investing $21M in a crapbucket player like Jason Marquis is considered a good thing? In that case Hendry should have signed Jose Macias to a 3/30 deal and pushed the team's value up even further.

I don't think it makes Hendry look dumber. I think the Tribune told Hendry they were opening the purse strings because they knew if Hendry spent a bunch of money this year he would raise the value of the Cubs. I read somewhere that after this offseason the Cubs value has gone up to around $600 million. How does spending a bunch of money in an inflated personnel market make a team more valuable? Are the Royals more valuable because they signed Gil Meche? I'm not an economics wiz but I always thought organizational debt was an undesirable thing for a business.

This makes retaining Hendry look even dumber. He's been allowed to make huge financial committments that will require a huge payroll to contend for the next few years, meanwhile the Tribune was for sale. We have no idea what the new owner will do to the payroll. This is yet another reason why the Cubs should have used 2007 for rebuilding. Considering all the circumstances I find it almost impossible to imagine a more inappropriate time to attempt an overnight worst-to-first turnaround.

I can't see any way this doesn't get done. Hendry's spending patterns show he is absolutely desperate to contend within the next 2 years. Letting Z walk would screw up the whole plan and cost Hendry his job. I am certain Hendry will throw however much money at this situation as it takes to get Z's signature on a dotted line.

Any new owner absolutely has to understand that Hendry has made comittments(including Z's coming deal) that render the Cubs unable to contend before 2011 unless they maintain one of the largest payrolls in the NL. We could be looking at an incredibly brutal few years of baseball if the payroll goes back to being just above average and not huge.

I'm not sure I agree with you that the closer concept should never have been invented. There is still a mental toughness about closing out the 9th inning that some relievers simply can't handle. Now, this doesn't have to be your best reliever, and it's probably preferable if it isn't-but a closer by committee usually only works IMO if you have multiple people who could be closers by themselves instead of going to a committee because you have no one who could be a closer by themselves. For the Cubs, if Dempster can bounce back he's pretty good for the role. He's not the team's best reliever, but he does have the ability to be a closer, which allows us to bring in our ace relivers like Howry and Eyre in key situations. A lot of the pressure of pitching the 9th has been artificially created by the closer/save construct. Ridiculous as it is the save is a highly regarded stat and careers and tons of money can be made by compiling a large number of saves. That's where the pressure comes from. If you take away the save as a stat and discard the closer concept then the 9th is not such a big deal anymore.

I think you guys miss my point. A few isolated instances of people selling their services below market value are not going to cause a fundamental breakdown of the free market dynamic of supply and demand. Oswalt's contract does not give the Cubs one iota of leverage to use to talk down Z's price and is therefore irrelevant to Z's negotiation. If Z wants full market someone will surely give it to him. If he takes less than full market value then it certainly won't be because Oswalt forced him to.

In a less stupid universe the best reliever on a baseball team would be a "designated fireman" who would pitch in the most crucial situations and the closer concept would never have been invented.

Have they really? And if so, to what extent? Besides Daryl Ward who looks downright out of shape or injured, the Cubs do look to be "in shape". Wood, Zambrano, Dempster and Eyre all lost some weight. Prior isn't back to being himself, but technically he's "healthy". Wuertz is in the same boat. Ward looks injured or just terrible. Wood is wood, or should I say glass. But besides those guys, Lou is right, the Cubs stayed healthy this spring. Last spring, the Cubs gave up 3.58 walks per game and drew only 2.80. This spring those numbers are basically reversed. They have given up 2.89 walks per game and drawn 3.71. We've all seen the improvement Ronny Cedeno has made in hitting to right field to advance the runner and being more selective. He has drawn 11 walks in 55 ABs while last spring he drew only 4 in 55. Is Lou telling the truth? Have the Cubs actually made these improvements? Can veterans be taught new tricks? Can patience and throwing strikes be taught and taught so quickly? Or is it that Hendry has brought in some guys, both FAs and from the minors, that through more strikes and drew more walks and were more patient? I'll believe more when it happens during the season as well. But comparing last spring's numbers to this spring's is all the imperical data we have at the moment. I hope the Cubs didn't sign Daryle Ward expecting him to be in shape. He's been a big fatty for a long time now.

Why? He is offering a hometown discount and getting more money than pitchers like Carpenter/Oswalt did. Oswalt's contract is not even close to market rate. Just because one or two guys got screwed doesn't mean the entire market will shift downwards.

The new owner better not drop the payroll. The 2009 team will be fortunate to win 60 games if the payroll goes to a lowly $100M.

When Kerry returns from the DL I think we'll find out pretty quickly if he's still capable of performing. If he breaks down again within the first 2 weeks I'd say he's most likely not going to do anything worthwhile this year. By June we should have a good idea of whether he should just quit baseball altogether or try to keep going.

Late April -- Izturis to DL and out for a month. Cedeno/Theriot to SS. Theriot wins the job outright. Izzy becomes trade bait. Salary will be eaten to move him.

Walking a double? It's not like Pierre is automatic in SB attempts. He's gotten caught 26% of the time in his career and he'll be 30 yrs. old in August. He only has to lose a small portion of his speed to drop his SB% into the 60's. At that point he won't even be good enough to start for the Pirates. And 204 hits is not much of an achievement if you get a gazillion plate appearances and refuse to take a walk.

Kerry really needs a productive season if he wants to keep his career alive. If he tanks again he probably won't get anything better than a minor league deal for 2008 and no guaranteed money. IMO if this season is a total bust he ought to just retire. It's not like he can't live comfortably on the money he already has.

5/90 was what I guessed a few weeks ago and I still think it's a good guess. There's no way Hendry wants to go to ownership or the media and say he let his ace walk because he wouldn't up his offer from 5/80 to 5/90, which is only a 2M per year difference and a bargain compared to Zito. Hendry likes his job better than that.

Right after Marquis signed I wrote that I thought it was very questionable whether he would even still be in baseball in 2009, when he earns just shy of $10 mil. He's not doing anything to change my mind.

So basically they are close because he wants to stay positive, and he's really not sure what Praver and Hendry are up to. He's still saying he'd be willing to talk after the year is over if it doesn't get down before opening day. I'm not sure we can reliably draw anything from Z's comments. I like the guy but he's not the best source for coherent/realistic statements.

As bad as Neifi is, he's still preferrable to Tomas. I wouldn't even give Tomas meal money. It's difficult for me to understand why he's even being comtemplated as an option by a potential contender in Major League Baseball.

I don't see how anyone can blame people for being suspicious when the Cubs announce a "minor" setback. The organization is justifiably distrusted because it has a history of untrustworthy behavior. The Cubs have a long track record of releasing unrealistic injury reports to the public and it will take a long time to rebuild public trust.

If the Cubs are really serious about getting another veteram MIF I wouldn't count out Neifi just yet. He's a type of player that Hendry values, even if we don't. Wait till Izzy starts getting gimpy, which shouldn't take long once he starts playing in the frigid April weather of Chicago. Neifi might be added for "insurance".

I was one of the very early ones to stop counting on Wood and also on Prior. At this point I've got my fork in hand and I'm almost ready to stick it in Prior. It's a shame, not so long ago we were all projecting a Hall of Fame career. Now I'd be happy if he could just become a solid #3 starter. Kerry looks like a better bet to have success, obviously not as a starter though. I'm not sure Prior will be particularly good in any role.

Seriously Neifi will be available. The Tigers are leaning heavily towards Ramon Santiago and we all know Leyland unwisely made some tactless statements about Neifi. It wouldn't surprise me if they eat $2M just to be rid of him.

I'm sure the Tigers would eat at least $1.75M to move Neifi.