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frostwyrm

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Everything posted by frostwyrm

  1. frostwyrm
    If Pie actually got cut from a DWL team my expectations for his MLB career just plummeted.
  2. frostwyrm
    It's still too early to be certain, but come 2009 the Cubs will likely have the worst team in the history of pro sports on a dollar-per-win basis.
  3. frostwyrm
    Zito is guaranteed $137M over 7 years. That's an average of $19.57 per year. If we want Z in a 4-5 deal it will certainly cost $20M per year, probably more. We could add years and reduce the avg. salary, but I wouldn't want to sign any pitcher for as long as Zito is signed for. Thing is, Hendry doesn't care one iota about the Cubs longterm future, so I can see him offering an 8 year deal, heavily backloaded as usual.
  4. frostwyrm
    It's crystal clear to me that Soriano was pitched around in 2006. Aside from Fons the Nats lineup sucked big time. Soriano 2006 splits: Runners on: 212 AB, 42 BB, .274/.396/.566 Bases Empty: 435 AB, 25 BB, .278./.326/.556 Fons' walk rate was enormously higher with runners on. Coincidence? I think not. That's hardly exclusive to Soriano. Murton had a near .060 difference last year, Pujols had a .063 difference last year , those guys are regarded as patient hitters. Soriano's walk rate was particularly high with RISP: 117 AB, 36 BB, .231/.411/.462 He only got 67 BB all year and over half of them came in RISP situations, which were rather scarce for him. His RISP ISoD was 0.180, with bases empty it was only 0.048. Maybe I'm off base here, but it really looks to me like people were pitching around him.
  5. frostwyrm
    Just because .328 is average for a leadoff hitter doesn't make it a good idea to get that out of that spot. As much as we complained about Dusty, I would say over 1/2 of ML managers would put a speedy basestealer #1 over a guy like Murton. Again, that doesn't make it a good idea. .340 should be the bottom of acceptability from a leadoff hitter's OBP. .328 is low. League averages include benchwarmers making spot starts or serving as injury replacements, and also rookies playing for rebuilding or non-contending teams, and crappy vets playing for cash-strapped small market teams. Soriano's numbers should only be compared to those of everyday leadoff hitters, preferrably the ones with big salaries.
  6. frostwyrm
    I'm not sure Fons will derive a big OBP advantage from batting leadoff with the Cubs. He'll have DLee and Aram batting behind him, as opposed to the lameass Nats hitters from 2006. Pitchers will have good reason to challenge him a lot more in 2007, which hopefully will lead to more HRs, but IMO it will almost certainly lead to a significant reduction in walks. The key to getting Soriano out has always been outside the strike zone. I'm not sure challenging him is really that good of an idea for pitchers. Personally I would challenge Fons, which does risk the solo HR, but also seems to reduce his OBP quite a bit, which would be a very good thing with DLee and Aram due up. Solo HRs are lame anyway. They don't scare me unless you're giving up a bunch of them.
  7. frostwyrm
    I'm not sure Fons will derive a big OBP advantage from batting leadoff with the Cubs. He'll have DLee and Aram batting behind him, as opposed to the lameass Nats hitters from 2006. Pitchers will have good reason to challenge him a lot more in 2007, which hopefully will lead to more HRs, but IMO it will almost certainly lead to a significant reduction in walks.
  8. frostwyrm
    It's crystal clear to me that Soriano was pitched around in 2006. Aside from Fons the Nats lineup sucked big time. Soriano 2006 splits: Runners on: 212 AB, 42 BB, .274/.396/.566 Bases Empty: 435 AB, 25 BB, .278./.326/.556 Fons' walk rate was enormously higher with runners on. Coincidence? I think not.
  9. frostwyrm
    2nd or 5th would be acceptable. I don't want a $136M power hitter batting behind Izzy and a pitcher. An overabundance of solo homers always bugs me.
  10. frostwyrm
    What happened to Womack? Is he still on a minor league roster?
  11. frostwyrm
    Junior has gotten a little porky. He even has a bit of a double chin. Obviously the broken hand wasn't due to fatness, but I wouldn't give him a free pass for some of his other health difficulties because he hasn't stayed in shape.
  12. frostwyrm
    If we fall out of contention it would be cool to bring Sammy in to keep the fans interested. If we're in the race I'd rather stay away from him.
  13. frostwyrm
    This is one of the best mental images of baseball I've had all offseason. Wrigley during this would rival Dodger Stadium in Gagné's heyday. No Metallica/AC-DC theme song needed, just the place going nuts. I believe Kerry is on record as being a big metalhead. So his theme music should be....?? "Balls to the Wall".
  14. frostwyrm
    http://img86.imageshack.us/img86/4707/picture2lb6.png $72M already committed for 2009, and I can't say I see anything resembling $72M worth of production there, especially not if Tim is right about Aram suffering a sharp decline as he ages.
  15. frostwyrm
    There is nothing likely at all about that scenario. That's a pretty ridiculous outlook, IMO. 50 ABs? He had 319 vs. RH last year in 144 games, out of 455 ABs. If he gets plattooned, he likely gets about 400 ABs, of which 300 come against RH pitching. How the hell is 2006 a valid indicator of how Murton will be used in 2007? We didn't have Floyd and Ward in 2006 and we fell out of contention very early, consequently there was no reason not to play Murton. If the Cubs tank in May again and Floyd gets dealt in a firesale then maybe 2006 will be relevant.
  16. frostwyrm
    Last year, Ward got 130 AB in 98 games. I assume he had a few 2-AB games following double switch type deal. I don't know where to get the pinch-hitting stats. But basically, that looks to me like he was basically a straight pinch hitter. If he started 8 games and got 35 AB in those 8, that would leave 95 AB for the remaining 90 games. So, pinch hit about 90 games, a couple of times stay in on a double-switch and get a second AB. Either way, it looks like he started less than ten games. I don't think Ward is going to provide any threat to Murton's playing time. Unless murton is really dying versus RHP. Floyd or Jones, different story. Ward started 6 games at 1B, 2 in LF, 9 in RF. 17 starts total. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3841&context=fielding
  17. frostwyrm
    Most likely scenario I see is Murton gets only about 50 ABs vs. RHP and we go into 2008 still not knowing if he's the LF of the future because we still won't know if he's capable of being effective vs. RHP over the course of a whole season.
  18. frostwyrm
    With Floyd and Ward on the team there will be very few ABs for Murton vs. RHP. I don't see how sitting out a year vs. RHP could not stunt his growth.
  19. frostwyrm
    Hendry is so concerned with winning now to save his job that it's entirely possible he just doesn't care if he's screwing Murton's and the Cubs' future by not letting Murt have a chance to develop into a cost-effective everyday player for the Cubs.
  20. frostwyrm
    Trading Murton would make the market work in our favor for a change. Looking at the huge deals that mediocre OFers are getting, I have to believe that a young OF who is already a solid contributor and will be dirt cheap for the next few years would command a hefty price in trade.
  21. frostwyrm
    Hendry is extended through 2008. A little parting gift from Andy. Isn't it a wacky coincidence that Hendry is signed thru 2008 and he keeps giving out contracts that have balloon payments due in 2009? I can only guess he figures either he'll field a winner soon and get a fat extension, maybe big enough for a comfortable retirement, or he'll be let go, in which case these back-heavy contracts will be someone else's problem.
  22. frostwyrm
    I pity the next Cubs GM. He'll be buried under all these backloaded contracts that Hendry gave out.
  23. frostwyrm
    I can see no possible way that signing LH-swinging Floyd won't cause a big reduction in Murton's playing time. If Murton is just going to sit on the bench for most games I'd rather see him traded. He's at the point in his career where the only sensible options are giving him a shot a being an everyday guy or trading him while his value is high. Having him languish on the bench will only hurt his value.
  24. frostwyrm
    For now, it's the market. Doesn't mean you have to committ $22M in one season for these guys, not unless your GM is Jim "Captain Backload" Hendry.
  25. frostwyrm
    Lilly and Marquis will make $22 mil in 2009. What a bargain.
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