Bertz

Feels like the middle class of the starting pitching market is going to be fully resolved before the lockout

Asked and received What was it in his profile that drew you to him? There's A LOT of red on his Baseball Savant page. He's fast and he hits the ball really hard, and doesn't strike out much. His plate discipline is a wreck so I don't think he's a star waiting to happen, but I like him a lot for the RH OFer role. Like TT said there's a lot of redundancy with Hermosillo, but pending what we add in the OF having two guys like this is probably a good thing. We're hopefully adding a starting caliber outfielder this winter. Having both a Hermosillo and a Ramirez makes me a lot more comfortable with that guy being left handed (e.g. Conforto).

Asked and received

Really fun drive for the most part though. More of that please

Honestly, I think Kilian's got a decent argument for #2 prospect in the org right now. These last two starts have certainly been good results wise, but much more importantly (for me at least) it's the verification of his velocity. The scouting reports have generally been like "yeah he touches 96 but don't get too excited this is a back end starter." Which for the record is not unreasonable, there are plenty of guys who throw 92 and touch 96 once or twice a game. 96 is the headliner but overall it's below average velocity in today's game. But we've now seen Kilian lives at 94, regularly touches 96, and even once got up to 98. This is not a finesse guy that can rear back, it's just plain old plus velocity. I imagine the spin numbers are nothing to write home about, but with that velo it's still plus stuff overall. Results wise he's completely unimpeachable, he dominated AA and the AFL, it's highly unlikely AAA slows him down much next spring. You can fairly take the blue chip teenagers over him because of their immense upside, but otherwise I think it's hard to take any other non-Brennen prospects in the org above Kilian. Like this is basically what Shane Bieber was before he discovered spider tack.

This does not look like someone who's playing

Would love to nab Harold Ramirez to fight for the RH Platoon OFer role on the team.

Yeah I think those two. Since Brendon Little is hurt I imagine he won't get taken, which is also why he wasn't rostered. I do worry a bit about a few of the starters with some pedigree who were hurt all year. But those are probably unlikely.

also floats Didi Gregorius as an "intriguing" option; would at least be novel to have a whole team one day with arthritic shoulders/elbows Sharma also said he thinks the team needs to add 5 (?!) starting pitchers and that Steele has a better shot at being a SP than Alzolay or Mills. I'm starting to worry that spending too much time with Mooney is turning his brain into mush. Like, let's say Jed is as dour on next year's team as is portrayed here, and that he's planning to "probably assemble a group that could win 87 games next year if everything breaks right, which rarely happens." Not unreasonable. Let's say Jed has this huge boner for financial flexibility going forward. Less reasonable (Bote's literally the only money on the books past '23), but sadly pretty believable. Taking those as a given though, a lot of the other stuff Sharma and Mooney are putting out there make no sense. - You certainly wouldn't consider a Willson Contreras extension. He's a catcher, and not a super durable one, who's about to turn 30. That is not a guy you give extra money to now expecting him to still be generating surplus value in 2024 - You do not close the door so hard on Hoerner at shortstop. The durability is an issue, clearly, so you certainly bring in another shortstop. But you get a guy to put behind Hoerner, not in front of him. You want to give Hoerner every opportunity to be the guy, both because he's higher upside for this year and because he's cheap and team controlled for the next several - And biggest, by far, is that's not at all how you handle the rotation. If the team's dual goals are "2022 upside" and "future payroll flexibility" you definitely need to add a starter or two. Jon Gray or Yusei Kikuchi or Steven Matz make a ton of sense as they're likely to be mid-rotation types, but have a chance at being a lot more than that. But why the hell would you consider the guys a tier below? Dylan Bundy, Anthony Desclafani, Alex Wood, etc. are all good enough to warrant multi-year deals, but limited enough to limit their upside to "nice July flip candidate." Much like the Hoerner example, you're also blocking a rotation slot that can go to a Steele/Adbert/Thompson, guys who have higher present upside and who offer future financial gains if you successfully develop them. Adding those types of starters is something you do when you're trying to raise the floor on the current team, not something you do when your big moves on the position player side are Freddy Galvis and bringing Rizzo home Like I'm not deluded into thinking the team's only two options are "AJ Prefer on a bender" or full on tanking, but their vision for the offseason seems to be "let's take as many half measures as we can" when just about the only thing we can say about Jed's tenure at this point is that he's been trying like hell to avoid them.

also floats Didi Gregorius as an "intriguing" option; would at least be novel to have a whole team one day with arthritic shoulders/elbows Sharma also said he thinks the team needs to add 5 (?!) starting pitchers and that Steele has a better shot at being a SP than Alzolay or Mills. I'm starting to worry that spending too much time with Mooney is turning his brain into mush.

Beyond parody

IF true (big if), that changes the market quite a bit I think. The Tigers will probably get one of them (Correa) but who else is bidding besides their previous teams? -Padres, Phillies and Angels seem to be capped out -Mets are kind of a mess but are one option -Red Sox seem to be looking at the second tier (rumored to be interested in Javy). -White Sox don't really have a need for a SS -Don't have a solid grasp on what the Cubs or Nationals are going to do. I'd expect the Cubs to get involved if the market is lower than expected Who else? Jays, Cardinals, Giants? Maybe the Mariners or Rangers. All possibilities but I don't see any of those teams except maybe SF offering a gigantic contract the way the Yankees would have. Wouldn't be surprised if Seager ended up back in LA and Semien back in Toronto unless I'm missing some news. I think you're only missing the Tigers. Feels like they want to really throw some money around this winter. But yeah, from the rumor mill it seems there are three camps: - Teams specifically into Javy (Red Sox and Mets) - Teams specifically into Semien (Jays, White Sox) - Teams broadly into grabbing a shortstop (Tigers, Rangers, Mariners, Cubs and until now Yankees) If the Yankees do indeed go with someone second tier, that's huge for our chances.

If the new CBA doesn't include the double hook, I think there's a good argument for doing this. And IMO the argument gets better the more limited Jed's resources are. Personally, I want two starters, and for the lesser of those two to be at least in the Duffy/Kikuchi tier of "probably league average but with some real upside." If the budget doesn't hold for that, then IMO skip right past the Dylan Bundy/Michael Pineda/Tyler Anderson aisle and make that other rotation spot a piggyback deal. I'd much rather do something like Justin Steele + Carlos Martinez than e.g. Dylan Bundy.

Interesting. Fangraphs has him as eligible but I'll definitely defer to Arizona Phil. I don't quite get how one becomes eligible but it looks like the Fangraphs list has a lot of 2018 draftees which I think isn't right unless they were college guys?

Yeah, that level of velocity is nice, but these days not super rare or differentiating without something to go along with it. Like I see 11 guys I could at argue for keeping above Cam? Now there's obviously a certain amount of gamesmanship; if someone is far enough away you can leave them unprotected even if they offer some pedigree. But the Cubs have 5 open spots on their 40 man, and even with a fair amount of mental gymnastics I don't think I can get Cam above 7 of the guys below: The guys with a 2022 ETA: Nelly Velazquez Andy Weber Ethan Roberts Brendon Little Bryan Hudson The Dynamite Relievers in A Ball (Manny Rodriguez types) Danis Correa Eury Ramos Promising but Hurt Pitchers: Riley Thompson Jack Patterson Kohl Franklin Yovanny Cruz

I do think Sanders is the most likely to get poached from the Cubs. The velocity plus MLB proximity is a good combo of upside plus not being a total punt of a roster spot. At the same time the Cubs probably have 8 or 9 guys more essential to protect.

I think it just really ties into what you think is the best approach for improving the Cubs. Thor is probably the highest risk/highest reward player on the market. So if your #1 goal for the Cubs is to get an ace in the door, Thor and Rodon are probably the best chances of doing that without paying Ace dollars. But like others have pointed out, he's pitched two innings the past two years and hasn't been truly himself since 2018. Personally, I wouldn't have wanted Thor for us unless we are going to run a payroll of $200M something. Thor's super cool but there are a number of ways I'd much rather allocate those resources at a lower budget level.

Re: Gray, this was an interesting look at him. The tl;dr seems to be that for pitchers the 3rd time through the order penalty is that much more severe

Yeah, Steamer sees him as essentially equal to Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman, which seems a little rich for my blood. But he's clearly a solid #2/#3 type at least, and pretty young. This is probably a situation where that opt out is especially valuable, and brings the "real" value of the contract up closer to $90M.