Bertz

The big thing here is that the Cubs are mostly done with the rotation. Sounds like they'll add a flier but probably no one else that would definitely own a rotation spot. I think that's the right call. I know I've been the most vocal "let the kids play" guy with the rotation since the start of the offseason, but aside from Rodon (whose medicals are probably a disaster given the Sox actions) I'm not sure there's anyone out there I'd rather have in FA than just letting Mills/Steele/Kilian fight for a spot. Probably Yusei Kikuchi, but he's getting a 3 year deal based on last reporting. It is interesting that three starters seemed like a given, and now it's two. I'm wondering if that's because Stroman's such a rock, or because they've found an opportunity to reallocate ~$10M elsewhere. Say it became a lot more realistic to sign a $35M/year shortstop instead of a $25M/year one? The infield defense is the other biggy talked about. 3B isn't really talked about, but it really feels like adding a shortstop (even just Jose Iglesias) AND adding Kyle Seager sure feels inevitable?

This is interesting, and pairs with an article on vertical approach angle from last year. I kind of think this is part of why the Cubs have turned into a team that can spin reliever straw into gold the last few years, but it hasn't extended to starting pitching. The Cubs have brought in some guys with extreme deliveries (Kyle Ryan, Brad Wieck, Dan Winkler) and gotten more success than you'd expect from them. So while funk can get you through an inning versus the right part of the batting order, to go 5-6 innings you need talent and not just smoke and mirrors.

Welp, scratch him off the list?

Given the need at 3B and the staff's groundball rate now with Stroman on board, Seager seems like a fait accompli

Broken hand/forearm?

I didn't realize Duffy's injury was so severe. He was my choice for the other starter to add this winter, but this cools me on him a lot. Because we do now have depth at SP, I'd still much rather have good-but-fragile Duffy over some of the pure innings eater types. But I think I'd now rather have Richards and Kikuchi among the second tier starters.

Offensively I actually like Vogelbach's fit on the roster. I just don't think it's workable defensively. With the Gomes addition meaning Contreras probably DH's one or two days a week, plus the huge number of outfielders on the roster, I don't think a pure 1B fits on the roster. Rivas is nice because he has minor league options, so he can come up after someone gets hurt or gets sent down for sucking. Hoerner and Wisdom are the only guys on the roster who can play the left side of the infield. The team currently has two hitters to add, and I think one needs to be a surefire starter at 3B/SS and the other needs to be able to at least moonlight there.

There was also a question he answered that said he hasn't bailed on Howard yet

I was disappointed in the lack of substance. It spent most of the article talking about how the Stroman deal fit their needs and bookended it with essentially "maybe they'll go after Correa too, who's to say" It's so frustrating that for the first time, maybe ever, the team has multiple very good beat writers yet the two who actually sometimes get scoops (Mooney and Rogers) are by far the worst at the day to day.

They *really* need to do this. And if Jed falls short on Correa he damn sure needs to come away with Story. 1. Financial flexibility isn't an issue. I'm generally more sympathetic to this type of argument than most (from the GMs POV not the owners, obviously), but it's not a contributor here. If you add Correa at $35M per, current payroll is still south of opening day last year. Next year's payroll at the start of the offseason would be a modest ~$160M, and the team would rank 12th in the league on dollars committed to '24, and 11th in dollars committed to '25 2. Next year's FA class sucks. There's a couple of superstars who are definitely getting extended (Judge, Turner, deGrom), a couple of superstars on team options (meaning they only hit FA if this year goes terribly), a decent number of 3 WAR SPs and OFers, and Xander Bogaerts. So your next 9 figure contract probably needs to come now or wait for the offseason prior to '24 3. There's nothing in the org at SS anywhere close to MLB. Nico Hoerner and Chris Morel are both fringey defensive shortstops. The next closest SS of note to MLB is Kevin Made, the 18 year old who OPS'd .662 in A Ball this year (that's great for an 18 year old! He's not clearly knocking on the door) 4. The pitching staff is very groundball heavy, and that seems unlikely to change any time soon. So SS defense is going to be a priority for the team for several years at least

I’d be shocked if this thing lasts in to the season and they start losing games. I’d bet they have something done in February at the latest. This is so optimistic but how can you feel this way? They've had months to negotiate and walked away after 7 minutes yesterday. What will create the incentive between now and February that wasn't already there? February 1st is roughly the point it starts affecting money. You can get all of the offseason stuff done in 2-3 weeks and have spring training still open mostly on time. Most of the league reporters think they sit on their hands until then, but don't expect more than a week or so of spring training to be affected.

Not actually familiar with the prospects but at a high level they shouldn't be enough to get out of Bradley's contract AND get Renfroe back?

I don't understand what happened with Hermosillo the past few days. I assume some esoteric procedural thing only Arizona Phil understands?

I don't like Dom but literally LOL'd at this

After '23, Heyward and Happ fall off, while Stroman falls off if he's good, and Hendricks falls off if he's bad. Given the timing of what's on the farm too, post 2023 offers a good opportunity to either *really* push the chips in, or dial things back a bit if the next two years don't go so well.

Wow that is not as much money as I expected

Yeah, no transactions that would impact the 40 man roster at all. Also, you can't sign guys who were in the majors last year to minor league deals. Technically no trades either, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see them happen and just have to wait until the lockout is over for then to be finalized.

If you take all the reporting for the last few days, it feels like this is roughly where we're going to end up? For the Owners - Expanded Postseason (only 12 teams though) - Ads on uniforms - MLBPA drops their greivance from last summer - Harsher Luxury Tax penalties For the Players - 5 years or age 29.5 for FA - 2 years to arb - Increased league minimum salary - Increased luxury tax level - Modest anti tanking and anti service time rules It shouldn't take 2 months to get there from where they're at currently, but it's absolutely going to.

I was just looking at this out of curiosity. Miley's velocity is 2 mph above Davies, and Stroman would be 2 mph above Arrieta and a shade more than Williams/Sampson/Stewart, so you do get gains even if you aren't signing a bunch of flamethrowers. Plus you hope Alzolay (best velo on the roster) throws more innings, and with the stability offered by Hendricks/Stroman/Miley they might consider trading Mills for offensive help(especially if they sign/trade for some other arm) and get more gains that way. What Stroman would represent is a real need to get a strong defensive SS, though, you're not maximizing that rotation if you have a Hoerner/Madrigal defensive middle infield most days. Let's pair Stroman with Kikuchi, who's the best combo of groundballs and velo among the second tier guys. Assuming all 5 guys were to throw the same number of innings to make the math easy, a rotation of Stroman Hendricks Kikuchi Miley Alzolay Would average a 47.4% ground ball rate based on last year's results. That would be slightly better than any rotation managed last year. The velocity would still be ugly though, as by the same method they'd average 92.0 MPH, which Houston did last year en route to ranking 27th in the league. Though honestly it's mostly just Hendricks being an outlier; the other four guys average out to 93.1 which is roughly average.

Probably depends on how long this has been coming. The main obstacle would be the physical right? Normally that doesn't happen in parallel but normally there isn't a literal deadline you're trying to finalize before. Seems like if you know you're close within the last 24 hours you could clear that logistical hurdle to avoid the messiness of waiting months to finalize, but maybe they didn't know or I'm understating the complexity of that step. Yeah, I wonder if given the circumstances they're doing things in parallel or even a bit out of order I would also think Stroman (or any other prominent FAs) could thorough physicals from 3rd party/team trusted physicians already in hand.

You probably can't make this signing official prior to the lockout at this point. That said, it shouldn't really matter if you agree on terms today and finalized the contract in February?

!!!