Bertz

!!!

The Cubs are doing much better about diversifying the lineup, which I really appreciate. - Happ and Frazier are both super patient, with some swing and miss - Madrigal's frankly a unicorn in terms of contact. Schwindel is pretty extreme himself for someone with power - Wisdom is probably the most extreme launch angle guy in the league - Madrigal led the league in going opposite field last year. Hoerner was in the top 30 - Hoerner is a fairly unique combination of patience and contact rates - Aside from Wisdom and Frazier, most of the more questionable hitters on the roster look platoonable Clearly, you'd rather have a more talented lineup. However, after seven years of having 7 guys all with the same approach and Javy, it's nice to see this lineup diversity. It should prevent the extreme hot and cold spells we saw with the last group. It's also part of why I'm bullish on this group if you spend some actual resources and supplement them.

The Good 1. Projects to a .750 OPS, so it's not like he's that risky 2. Showed in 2020 what it can look like when he's got it all clicking 3. Is outrageously patient, the third lowest chase rate in MLB the last two years 4. Three remaining years of team control The Bad 1. Despite decent speed he's a terrible defender 2. Already quite the medical history 3. For a bat first guy, doesn't hit the ball particularly hard Not my favorite target, but RHH outfielder was a need, and something I didn't want Jed to spend a lot of money on. He also wouldn't be the first guy that just needed a change of scenery out of New York.

There's one spot

hmm EDIT: They may also be readying to jump very quickly on some non-tenders Wendle would fit this roster like a glove, there's a big need for LHH infield help. But yeah they're going to do something else today or tomorrow. Otherwise you'd wait until post lockout to dump those two.

Cubs were at 37 this AM, added Gomes, and have now removed Hermosillo and Megill. The latter two were pre-arb, so really only something to do if you need the roster spots...

That's why the team still only projects at ~85 wins. That said, Steamer thinks those latter three are all better than league average hitters, and the former two would have Hoerner and Davis breathing pretty hard down their necks. Even with adding Correa the middle of the order is a little light, but on the flip side you're not giving many PAs to bad hitters. It's a very Oakland-y lineup.

Let's say, just for argument, the team adds Correa and Stroman, and then limits themselves to 1 year depth signings. Let's say Danny Duffy, Brad Miller, and Tommy Pham, because those are the 1 year guys I like most. 2022 Payroll is ~$185M Team projects to ~85 wins Lineup: RF - Pham LF - Happ SS - Correa 1B - Schwindel DH - Miller C - Contreras 2B - Madrigal 3B - Wisdom CF - Ortega BN - Hoerner, Gomes, Ramirez, Heyward SP: Stroman Hendricks Duffy Miley Alzolay/Steele Next winter, payroll is ~$160M at the outset of the offseason, and all you've lost to FA are Miley, Contreras, Pham, Miller, and Duffy. Meanwhile, barring major injury Davis and Kilian have made their MLB debuts. This isn't 2019, adding a big deal or even two no longer paints Jed into a corner. Take a big swing dude.

One thing to keep in mind is that Willson has admitted he loves stirring up horsefeathers on Twitter. I'd totally believe that this time it's real, but Willson loves a good troll job.

I don't think Willson gets extended. I think the plan was that this year they'd have Willson start and Amaya come up in the 2nd half and apprentice. Now with his injury, I think Willson and Gomes split catcher ~50/50, Willson also gets the plurality of DH at bats, and then in '23 there's a Gomes to Amaya handoff. That or Willson gets traded and Gomes is now already in house as the starter.

This is a good signing, I'm just not sure if we went big at "backup" catcher because Willson is on the way out or because Amaya's arm exploded.

I don't think that really lines up either. Like if Jed was going to punt the next two years, he doesn't take Nick Madrigal back as the big catch of the deadline. I also don't think you declare Hoerner not an every day shortstop so early, and honestly you probably only add one more SP and call it a day (with the idea that you're going to rely on Adbert/Mills/Thompson/Steele to fill 2+ spots). The Cubs are going to spend money, and the team's going to project at .500ish or better. I'm just worried now that our offseason is going to be something like: Freddy Galvis Yusei Kikuchi Garret Richards Kyle Seager Andrew McCutchen Robinson Chirinos A reliever or two These are all quality depth pieces. At positions of need too. But unless you hit the absolute jackpot on one or more of them, they don't move the ball forward for 2023+ at all. So what ends up happening is one year from now Jed's looking at basically the same team (Willson is gone but Davis has arrived), and there's still a ton of work to do. Honestly just replacing Galvis above with Story would calm change my attitude immensely.

Here's another fun consequence if you stay away from multi year FAs this winter, next year's market sucks! https://www.mlb.com/news/baseball-s-next-free-agent-classes There's no way in hell Turner and Judge don't get extended after how quiet the Yankees and Dodgers were this past weekend. If DeGrom opts out do we really think Cohen won't move heaven and earth to retain him? Nearly everyone else fun is tied to a team option, meaning they only make it to FA if they suck this year. We're likely left with Bogaerts, re-signing Willson, and a solid crop of mid rotation starters.

The lack of hearing about the Cubs in rumors (I know Stroman and a couple others we were mentioned amount 6-7 teams but for the most part its been quiet) means either they are likely not spending until after the lockout or all the stuff Jed and PTR said about a retool is BS. If its the latter why lie about it..to keep ST renewals high? I'm probably overreacting. The Cubs were probably not going to get a top FA and they hinted at that multiple times. The 1-3 year contract guys are mostly still out there, so perhaps the plan is still in place. It's just so horsefeathering quiet. It's so frustrating for me because there's a ton of middle ground between what the Rangers are doing (which is a lot of fun, but probably stupid) and pretending like 3+ year contracts are illegal. Like if the Cubs sign Trevor Story for $25M per year they'd have basically the same amount of money committed to 2024-2025 as the Brewers. Hardly backbreaking, even if he busts as bad as Heyward. Now there's plenty left in FA that we could still have the offseason I want, but to your point the silence is deafening. It does not seem like there's much fun waiting for us on the other side of the lockout, just nothing but a handful of Freddy Galvis and Kyle Seager types. Hopefully Jed just runs a really tight ship and we're all flipping out over nothing.

Pretty similar farm too. Tons of depth, but only one guy (Jung) who's a surefire contributor next year.

Carlos Correa right now

Holy horsefeathers

For those curious, the Cubs are 26th in the league in dollars committed to 2024 and beyond. It's literally just David Bote and the buyout on Kyle Hendricks' club option. The average team has ~$33M a year committed in '24-'25. There's zero reason for a big market team like the Cubs to be afraid of signing one or two medium or long term contracts this winter. It's austerity theater.

I would even go so far as to say that I'm not even cataclysmically worried about spending money on FA in general, with rare exceptions it's a bunch of post-prime guys wanting really long commitments. But at the same time, one of the main assets you have for improving the team quickly is money, and you have to get pretty creative to use that money if you're not spending a big chunk of it in FA(whether that's 30M for 1 guy or 10M for 3). I'm all for creativity, but it's a narrow needle to thread when you don't know what the rules/motivations/timelines are going to be coming out of the CBA. Exactly. Like I'm not asking for Correa, Freeman, and Scherzer. But on the flip side doing say Galvis, Moreland, and Kikuchi instead doesn't actually accomplish anything unless you hit HUGE on one of them a la the Jays with Robbie Ray last year. And like you pointed out a few weeks back there aren't actually many bad contracts to take on and buy prospects. There's like Pat Corbin, Madison Bumgarner, and Eric Hosmer? Like, Jed's gotta do something so that we're not just sitting in the same place next year plus Davis minus Contreras. My ideal is/was a Gray or better SP and one of the big SS's, but I'm open to alternatives as long as they actually move the ball forward.

I didn’t expect the Cubs to build a contender but I didn’t think (and still don’t think) they are going to run out a sub $100 payroll. I figured they would pick up at least 2-3 pieces for the “next great Cubs team” though maybe not star pieces. They still have plenty of time to do so. My concern is that PTR is not going to let them spent money until the new CBA is approved and not giving the FO wiggle room in case the market is unexpectedly more active before the lockout. But still plenty of names out there and time running short to sign deals before Dec 1 so maybe it will work out. Just concerning to see how few rumors the Cubs are being mentioned in. I think for me the concern is that the top and middle tiers of SP are going to be largely picked clean by the end of the day. And during Jed's postseason presser, he most explicitly name checked SP as the area for improvement. I don't have a problem going cheap at SP if it means we're going big elsewhere, but given all that's been put out there if we go cheap at SP how likely should we really think it is that we're going big elsewhere? Jed doesn't tell us everything, but he's not some douchebag like Matt Nagy who tries to play 5D chess with every media discussion.

Eh, players don’t want to join up with this horsefeathers show As opposed to the Rangers?

Annnnnd he's gone

I think, thankfully, neither side has leverage. Everyone knows that this horsefeathers work stoppage is going until the 11th hour, so people are acting now to make sure they don't lose the frantic game of musical chairs in early February.