Bertz

I thought someone said he was having visa issues, but I may be mistaken on that. I don't know if we've gotten confirmation, but for anyone mysteriously missing who's on a 40 man that's the safest assumption. I'm curious at what point we enter Kilian watch. We're certainly not there yet, he's not even fully stretched out. Plus there's all of the machinations that are going to hit in ~2 weeks when the injured guys are back in the fold and rosters contract. That said, once we hit mid May if he's still shoving there's pretty much no reason not to bring him up? Is it 100% dependent on how Steele is doing at that point?

My guess is until rosters contract he takes a role like Rucker and Chavez of taking bulk low leverage innings. If he starts to show something that quickly he sticks on the roster, if he doesn't like you said they phantom IL him. I'm curious about the odds of this paying off big. On the one hand Newcomb is your classically ideal change of scenery type, and his repertoire seems tailor made for Hottovy to fix. But on the other, the Braves are one of the smart orgs with pitching, so you would think they've exhausted all options.

I absolutely LOVE this

I’ve been reading a lot more lately on MiLB, and not seeing much positive about him as a prospect. Is there a possibility he’s a thing? He's the one that went bonkers in the Arizona Fall League. He's probably not a guy. But there's some chance. He probably won't ever have the contact or consistency to be a star, but I think a Hunter Renfroe type outcome seems very reasonable. Streaky lefty-masher who mashes everyone in his best year.

Funny how the oldest prospect in the MB lineup was the first one to start hitting. Almost like that means something?

Annnnndd now a dong .269/.424/.615 Early season data is fun

Velo down a bit, hard contact up a bit. That said he's fine. It's not bad luck or anything, this is legit hard contact, but he's missing bats and keeping the ball on the ground. His xFIP is 3.32, and for a vet like him we know he's not a guy who's gonna underperform in that way in the long run.

If the back of my napkin is correct, PCA is up to .240/.406/.480 after that last HBP

Hopefully this gets rained out now, sheesh

The crazy amount of groundballs is definitely a red flag, but I think a less deep shade of red than an equivalent plate discipline or contact deficiency. It can and often is a canary in the coal mine that something is wrong. Like I remember Starlin's last year here he ran a 60+% GB rate for a month or so, BABIP'd his way to solid production, and then cratered the rest of the way. But at the same time, I believe it's been empirically shown that GB rate is more on the pitchers than the hitters. I don't know if the Cubs' slate of opposing pitchers has been exceptionally GB heavy, but it's easily possible in only 11 games.

Yeah I assumed that this was something they could do in 2020 with no fans but that it was a one-off. I wonder if the schedule being tighter this year because of a lockout necessitated bringing this back.

Brennen with a walk before I've even finished my first coffee of the morning is fun

Effross has been out best reliever, I certainly wouldn't do anything with him. I think you option Leiter, Rucker, and Roberts, DFA the worst of the vet relievers (as of now Chavez), and kick the worst OFer off the team. At the moment that'd be either Ortega or Frazier, and because it's so close you'd choose Frazier because he has options. I do also wonder if how easy it'd be to trade Mills, I think if that's a real option it simplifies things to an extent and would be attractive.

I know the Rays' whole thing is a roster that's greater than the sum of its parts, but man I do not see how this team keeps up with the rest of the AL East this year

He might be more than just a senior signing

Patrick Wisdom has improved his contact rate from horrendous to bad, and he's still hitting the horsefeathers out of the ball. Very early obviously, but he might be ready to level up from last year.

I'm curious if this is mechanics, the cold weather, or he really only has the juice in his arm to do a couple innings at full velo

Chris Clarke shoving too. I hope we get some video on that front

At what point does Jared Young pass Rivas on the depth chart for strong side platoon duties?

Definitely a response to the Rays using an opener, but I don't hate it? Especially while Villar is hot.

I would be very interested in giving Newcomb a shot. Even just give him 2-3 weeks until Miley is ready to show something. But we could really use another lefty in the pen, particularly one with some velo.

Yeah that's not clear, but it seems like it's the result pitch. I'd love to get greedy and get plate discipline (chase, contact, etc.) but I'd imagine it's rare for a guy to e.g. be super susceptible to something early in the count but much less so later. Maybe if more guys choked up like Rizzo? Several of those going the other way too, whereas previously I feel like batting right he's mostly just swung hard and hoped he ran into one.

Yeah and this doesn't help with velocity at all but he is leading all of baseball in wFB which I believe is weighted runs above average against fastballs, and broken down into wFB/100 fastballs seen he's 4th. It's possible with the small sample size that he's faced a number of lower velocity pitchers but he's definitely crushing fastballs better than almost anyone else in baseball. He's seeing an average fastball velocity that's slightly above the midpoint for qualified hitters: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=4&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=4,d&page=2_50 I think I found it? This was pretty tucked away but I feel like MLB ought to make a much bigger deal that this is available: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=FF%7CFT%7CFC%7CSI%7C&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2022%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfInfield=&team=CHC&position=&hfOutfield=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&hfBBT=&metric_1=api_p_release_speed&metric_1_gt=95&metric_1_lt=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=xwoba&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&min_pas=0&chk_stats_pa=on&chk_stats_hits=on&chk_stats_xba=on&chk_stats_xwoba=on#results Small sample, but Seiya excels here too. He might just be perfect? Also Happ is apparently crushing velo this year too, and that hasn't always been the case.