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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    This made me curious, it looks like using Fangraphs' evals that the lead prospect would be around a 45 FV, here's what a list of those look like from teams that may be buying: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&team=tor,atl,bos,chw,phi,min,nym,sdp&filter=scoutgrade%7Cf%7CFV%7Ceq%7C45%7C45&pageitems=200&pg=0 Some interesting names, especially for potential short term impact. Groshans, Steer, O'Hoppe, Muller, Walter, and Woods-Richardson caught my eye in particular. Yeah my intention was to say a 45 and a 40FV, but since we aren't in the MiLB forum I didn't use that jargon. But KB and Rizzo each brought back two 45s (FG technically had Alcantara as a 50 already but I think general consensus was more like a 45), and Javy brought back one. And that aforementioned Britton trade was for 3 40s. I'd also add the Yankees as a suitor, and honestly they might pay a premium because they already know Robertson isn't one of those guys who will turn into a pumpkin under the bright lights of NYC.
  2. Bertz
    I am but a simple caveman lawyer. When you say “haul”, do you mean like better than any of our deadline deals last year? I'd guess not quite that much, but fairly close. It's hard to say exactly how much he's worth, since I don't think there's been a reliever as good as Robertson traded with only half a season of team control since we acquired Chapman. That deal's not a good comp for about a thousand reasons. The Yankees gave up three of their top 30 prospects for a still good but exiting his prime Zach Britton, and that feels like the lower end of what we should expect? I'd guess Robertson if he keeps it brings back an org top 10 guy and an org top 30 guy. And if he gets packaged with Contreras we get back back an overall industry top 50 guy.
  3. Bertz
    David Robertson topped 95 MPH four time today, which for him is some extreme gas. He's gonna bring back an absolute haul at the deadline
  4. Bertz
    Guy seems like he is Soriano-level streaky He and Nelly are so similar. Feels like one of them ought to get traded prior to opening day '23
  5. Bertz
    2nd dong of the day
  6. Bertz
    Yeah I think he's a guy that a few years ago would have been liable to put up some random juiced ball 25 homer season. Even if the power doesn't progress though, he's really taking a star turn. He's played at damn near a 6 win pace since the start of last year, and he's over 4 WAR for his career in less than a full season's playing time. I don't think the defense is actually *that* good, but he's going to continue to pace comfortably above 3 WAR/600 PAs. The durability is the big issue, but plenty of young guys have overcome that (while old guys who become brittle nearly always stay brittle).
  7. Bertz
  8. Bertz
    Ryan Jensen 2.0 with another strong outing. 3 scoreless with one walk and two strikeouts. While the control is clearly much improved, the strikeouts and groundballs are down since he came back. Hopefully that's just him getting used to the new delivery, and not a permanent tradeoff. I'm happy to trade one of those for the control gains, but not necessarily both.
  9. Bertz
    The lineup is hardly amazing but league-wide slugging is .393 this year
  10. Bertz
    Yeah I was thinking the same thing, absolute trash for the last few weeks. Nothing visibly wrong though, so hopefully it's just normal ups and downs
  11. Bertz
  12. Bertz
    Out of 178 qualified hitters in High A this year, only 24 of them are in their age 20 or younger seasons. Yohendrick Pinango has been the 9th best hitter among that group, while Owen Caissie has been 11th Only 2 guys in their age 19 or younger seasons are qualified, and Caissie is 2nd of those two
  13. Bertz
    It's temporary because I'm interested in seeing whether this new delivery is really such a difference maker, but I'm actually much more interested in it being Ryan Jensen day than DJ Herz day. Actually between Jensen and Roederer both of my top two storylines are at Tenn right now.
  14. Bertz
    With Bote back, I'd move towards having Wisdom split his time about 50/50 between 1st and 3rd.
  15. Bertz
    I really hope fixing Hendricks ends up being something as simple as pitch usage. His stuff is the same as ever, and I believe that's all the Cards ended up doing with Wainwright so there is precedent. But if the answer was "throw your sinker more dingus" it probably would have taken less than a year and a half to crack.
  16. Bertz
    A LOT of things have gone wrong this year, but as far as the team's future outlook goes Nico's seeming star turn outweighs many of them combined.
  17. Bertz
  18. Bertz
    Down in South Bend, Kohl Franklin is so snakebitten that (judging from GameDay) he's actually pitching decently for once but is still getting BABIP'd into oblivion
  19. Bertz
    I believe ~half of minor league parks have Statcast installed, and you can scrape data from the Baseball Savant website. And it's I think league by league, so like the PCL has it but the International League doesn't. I'd imagine the big boys like FG and BR won't spend the effort building out a process to add the data until it's available for all or at least most games. So what you've got now I believe is either sourced from teams, or is fairly piecemeal. Like I'm pretty sure Eno Sarris did a "best Stuff+ ratings in the PCL" article a bit ago, and the reason it was just the PCL was clearly the limits on data availability. Contact rate is an annoying thing that we should have though. FG has swinging strike rate available, so like the raw data should be there for contact rate.
  20. Bertz
    Oh this is much much better!
  21. Bertz
    Bote up Nelly down presumably tomorrow. Bote is on the 60 Day IL so there'll be a DFA as well (Leiter?).
  22. Bertz
  23. Bertz
    I love his LH swing. Up to .240/.340/..407. And like a lot of guys in the system he had a pretty terrible April to dig his way out of. Don't look at the pitching down on the farm today though
  24. Bertz
  25. Bertz
    Steele actually holding his velo into the middle innings is promising. Like TT has pointed out the data is looking better and better on his front. I've been reticent to jump on the bandwagon because his fastball is usually like 88-89 by the 100 pitch mark, but if he's holding deeper into starts (be it for weather, conditioning, whatever), that alleviates many of my concerns.
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