Bertz

I think the argument is that the 40 man has an imbalance in players who are corner outfielders on a good team. Happ, Suzuki, Velazquez, Davis, Canario, Ortega, maybe toss Morel in that group too depending on the roster build(or PCA's ascent), and it's very deep with too much to go around, especially relative to the infield. So this offseason is a good time to make a decision and trade *somebody*, maybe more than one somebody. Happ is a more narrow trade fit than the guys with more team control(and is more unique than the rest for reasons you said), but the rewards are potentially higher because you also free up his money to do something more substantial with your offseason plans. Yes there's a quality gap between Happ and the youngsters/Ortega, but between their quality and the sheer numbers that difference is less than similar gaps in cost on the IF or on the pitching staff(because of how $$ misses compound on a staff like we've seen this year). I'm definitely with you on the first half. I think there's not really room in the org for all three of Davis/Nelly/Canario. The team probably needs to fill at least one of it's holes via trade, and the headliner of that trade should be from that surplus of RHH defensive tweener CFers On the Happ part though, what you're saying totally makes sense in a vaccum but IMO if Jed wasn't able to find a deal at the deadline where the trade return plus Happ's '23 salary was more valuable than keeping Happ, it seems very unlikely that'll be on the table this winter. I know we don't think of Happ's as a model of consistency, but aside from 1H '21 he's routinely been between a 125 and 135 wRC since he got back from being banished to Iowa. He's a pretty safe bet for roughly 3 WAR, and helps mitigate some of the uncertainty around Seiya and the parade of youths that get rolled out in CF until Ross finds someone who sticks, and then Happ rolls off right in time for PCA/Caissie to duke it out in 1H '24.

One thing that sucks about signing Contreras long term is that his roster fit gets really crummy very quickly once he starts declining. As a ~125 wRC+ guy and a below average defensive catcher you can currently shift his playing time between catching and DH/1B pretty much any way you want and be happy with the net result. Have a full time catcher you love already? Great, Willson's still a desirable bat-first guy. Want to give him something closer to full time catcher duty? We've seen that that works too. But what about a year or two from now when he's slipped a bit? Yes DH's this year have a 106 wRC+, so technically something like a 110 is "above average," but to be a full time/most time DH? The bar is a good bit higher, more like 120-130. Willson can't really slip that much offensively from where he is right now and stay productive as a primary DH. Playable sure, desirable no. Instead of with the bat, what If he slips defensively and has to move further off catcher? You've got a good but not elite right handed hitter locked into one of those roster spots. In a vacuum that's not the worst thing in the world, but given the org's surplus of RHH bats it definitely seems like a waste to pay market rates for a non-elite RHH bat with no defensive value? I know "but what if all his defensive value evaporates overnight" seems like a silly hypothetical, but that's unfortunately the deal with catchers. Go look at Victor Martinez or Carlos Santana, once guys stop catching so much it usually snowballs pretty quickly. And unlike say, a shortstop, who can gracefully slide down the defensive ladder after getting moved off the position, catchers inherently go immediately from top of the defensive spectrum to damn near the bottom. I just generally tend to think that Willson, even on a 4-5 year contract, is gonna be kind of a drag in the back half of his deal. I'm cool with re-signing him, but IMO the argument needs to mostly be centered on "he's a cool dude and should be rewarded" because I'm very unconvinced it's the right call from a win/loss perspective. Especially since the implications we've gotten from the industry (the blase attitude the Cubs have had towards keeping him, the lack of TDL interest, the more explicit reporting from Passan/Rosenthal/etc.) say that if anything his defense is a good bit worse than we're privvy to. Also, on the other discussion, why the hell would we move Happ? The lineup cannot afford to get any less left handed, and with the critical mass of outfielders in the upper minors having a good reliable OF in his walk year on next year's team is perfect. The dealing Happ ship sailed on August 2nd IMO.

It's very weird because just looking at the Dodger roster it seems the most vulnerable it's been in years (which by their standards means a ho hum 95 win team), but they are absolutely crushing everyone and there aren't really any underlying numbers that say it's not deserved.

This appears to be the Estrada consensus from pitching Twitter

Luke Little with 4 perfect innings tonight. Very curious to see if next year they start letting him go past 15 batters in an outing

Seiya seems to be fully out of his funk. He hasn't hit for much power recently but we obviously know he's capable.

FWIW Thompson made it into Canada

Awesome, damn near best case scenario, he should get essentially a full month at Iowa. Plus the AFL, and that's ~150 PAs against high level competition we weren't sure he'd be getting this year a few months ago. It's certainly unlikely but opening day '23, would seem to be on the table if he resumes hitting.

Curious what pitchers get the call

I have somehow Mandela Effected Sergio Mitre beating Roy Halladay into having occurred in Toronto. I would have put like $100 on the Cubs/Jays series from 2005 having been in Canada.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ And that's including Shohei's 2022 production, which at this point is unattainable. Shohei's probably worth like ~70 at the time of trade, so like swap out Hernandez for one of Canario/Kilian/Wesneski? Qualitatively, the best comp for a Shohei deal is probably Mookie Betts, and he essentially cost Verdugo and Jeter Downs. The deal was much bigger, but IIRC the rest was largely luxury tax shenanigans and not impacting Betts' value. Cub colored glasses, I think Steele and Davis is pretty comparable to Verdugo/Downs, maybe a bit better? But I could buy a third piece being necessary here, after all unlike the Soto deal, with Betts everyone was pretty unanimous in thinking the return was light.

The Sean Newcomb experiment was a worthwhile one, but it's time to cut bait. Assuming he's allowed in the country, Brendon Little should meet the team in Toronto. I already assume Adbert will replace Farrell, and hopefully Estrada gets the extra bullpen spot on Thursday.

Cubs 1B have collectively hit like catchers, so getting even adequate 1B production is a massive offensive boost and probably balances the loss of Willson. That said, it's generally better in these scenarios to start from scratch rather than taking last year and doing a bunch of debits/credits from there. Here are the current rest of season wRC+ projections for that batting order: Morel - 91 Happ - 120 Reyes - 109 Suzuki - 126 Hoerner - 104 Wisdom - 105 Narvaez - 98 Madrigal - 97 Kiermaier - 92 It's not perfect way of looking at things since obviously everyone will be a year older (though the lineups young enough it might do as much good as harm?), but I think it shows that there's not really any black holes in the offense. While Keirmaier and Narvaez are defense first guys, they're not exactly Andrelton Simmons. Especially since they'll get some platoon help from Gomes and Velazquez.

*sigh* Of the relevant players on the roster, Steele and Thompson were definitely the two I was most worried about

Just thinking out loud about going all in on run prevention this winter. Something like: Carlos Rodon (~$30M/year over 4-5 years) Kevin Keiermaier (~$10M) Omar Narvaez (~$10M/year for 2 years) Late inning reliever x2 (~$15M) SP - Rodon, Stro, Steele, Thompson, Hendricks 3B - Morel LF - Happ DH - Reyes RF - Suzuki SS - Hoerner 1B - Wisdom C - Narvaez 2B - Madrigal CF - Keiermaier Aside from Wisdom, who's fairly inexperienced at 1B, everyone above is defensively somewhere between good and great at their respective positions. The rotation is probably a top 10 unit, and with Alzolay in the 'pen and Kilian and Wisneski at Iowa it's got as much quality depth as any other other team in the league. Offensively, the lineup probably projects to about average, but it's pretty easy to spot downside risks. Though having Davis, Canario, and Mervis hanging out at Iowa helps mitigate many of those. It'd be really cool if Mckinstry started hitting, because a quality LHH infielder plus the Iowa reinforcements would paper over most concerns. I think I prefer the offseason variations that involve one of the shortstops, but the above probably nets out to a similarly competitive team and given how many fewer long term dollars get allocated it might be more up Jed's alley.

This, the Phillies, and the rule changes should honestly be enough to keep large market teams from going full tank again

That second drive checked pretty much every box you could ask for

I’ve only heard lower back tightness which is not ideal but far from worst case scenario I guess. He’ll probably go on the IL On the topic of Steele: Also he’s starting to get a name for himself. Here are some Brewers fans before the game lamenting having to face him again: Fangraphs gave him some love too

Are we thinking he comes up next week when rosters expand? Adbert replacing Farrell and Estrada getting the open spot seems to be the most reasonable path forward, especially since it seems like the org really doesn't want to call up Kilian.

Dude is really turning into a thing