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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    1. PCA <gap> 2. Wicks 3. Brown 4. Horton 5. Alcantara <gap> 6. Davis 7. Canario 8. Amaya 9. Caissie 10. Mervis 11. Ballesteros <gap> 12. Ferris 13. Made 14. Hernandez 15. Triantos <gap> 16. Estrada 17. Palencia 18. K. Franklin 19. Hodge 20. Herz The 20's would basically be McGeary, Kilian and a bunch of current or about-to-be relievers (e.g. Little, Horn, and Jensen)
  2. Bertz
    The Marlins bullpen is pretty shredded right now. Nardi and Floro are good to go, but everyone else today would either be their 3rd game in a row or 3rd in 4 days. For the Cubs everyone but Keegan should presumably be in the table.
  3. Bertz
    He gets Mikolas and Flaherty the next two days! With Kyle about to have his 3rd rehab outing, Decent chance this is Wesneski's swan song for a little bit. Probably good timing, he could stand to work on things at Iowa and get back to missing bats.
  4. Bertz
    Looks like one more!
  5. Bertz
    Wowza! That'll play. He's going to be a nice add to the bullpen in a month when he's eligible to come off the IL.
  6. Bertz
  7. Bertz
    I know Alcantara's been pretty mediocre this year, but it'd be really nice to win this one and lock up a series W before he has an opportunity to shut us down.
  8. Bertz
    I think the most striking thing watching Kerry Wood's game is how the stuff would still be outrageous today. You look at like Mark Prior or Carlos Zambrano, and it's almost quaint because they'd they'd be like vaguely notable #3 starters in today's game. Ben Brown probably has better stuff than either of them, and he's at best a fringey top 100 prospect. The octane level of stuff around the league has just taken a huge leap forward in the last 15 years. But Wood? He had a sweeper and curve with huge break, he had a fastball with lots of run that sat 96-98 and regularly touched 100. If he was around today he'd absolutely be in the conversation with Hunter Greene and Shohei Ohtani for best pure stuff in baseball.
  9. Bertz
    7 losses in a row now, 2 games back of the Rockies Not gonna lie makes it me nervous for next week, I hate coming up on teams deep into a losing streak, feels like they're about due to come out of it with a vengeance
  10. Bertz
    He's looking like a DFA candidate at the end of the year, which is absolutely wild considering where he was a year ago at this time
  11. Bertz
    3 Ks and a walk in Ferris' first inning. I'm firmly in the "age is just a number" camp for pitchers but if we have a high pedigree teenage pitcher continue to perform in full season ball....holy horsefeathers
  12. Bertz
    Amaya already stealing a strikeout via framing
  13. Bertz
    Sorry, I see now my wording is misleading, what I'm saying is Mervis at Iowa has the essentially perfect peripherals of those guys as MLBers. Ironically though, Tex is the only one of those guys who hit as prospect like he did in MLBGuys who walk a lot, don't strike out a lot, have power, and put the ball in the air. The latter were all Flyball Revolution guys. But putting some numbers around it, since 2010 there've been 22 seasons of guys with a BB rate greater than 10%, a K rate less than 20%, a GB rate less than 40%, and pulled 50% of their batted balls Pujols Asdrubal Cabrera (the only wRC+ less than 117 on this list) Brian Dozier (x2) Edwin Encarnacion (x5) Jose Bautista (x5) Jose Ramirez (x2) Mark Teixiera (x3) (+3 more times before 2010) Max Kepler Paul Konerko Steve Pearce (his insane out of nowhere 2014) As you'd expect from me calling these peripherals perfect, these seasons averaged a 141 wRC+. Mervis has to continue it in MLB obviously, but short of having a time machine and doing it younger he's done as much on paper at Iowa as one could possibly do. I think the plan was to call him up Tuesday but then Gomes got concussed and made additional roster machinations more complicated.
  14. Bertz
    I love Morel, I believe over the offseason on here I threatened to throw myself into an active volcano if anything ever happened to him, but he's still swinging and missing A TON down at Iowa. This isn't Mervis, there's still some pretty fundamental development stuff for Morel to work on. I think it's correct to wait until either he closes some holes in his swing or someone goes down with an injury to call him up.
  15. Bertz
    I think this is two separate things: One Run Game luck and Cluster Luck The one run game thing is clearly the issues from the last two weeks. Fulmer's issues in the Dodgers series and basically the entire pen's issues from the past week. They are frustrating but really IMO it's a several bad dice roles in a row. Most of the pen has experience pitching and pitching well in close games, so aside from maybe Rucker I don’t think there's actually any reason to think it's more than a temporary run of bad luck. The losses are banked though, and it doesn't always even out in the end. The cluster luck, the team was actually on the positive side of the ledger as of a ~week ago. The offense not coming through with men on over the past week was basically a reversion to the mean from earlier in the year. Now the team is slightly unlucky on the pitching side, but not egregiously so. This is more or less a wash IMO.
  16. Bertz
    Sounds like the defense is playable but not great.
  17. Bertz
    Gonna be a dong party today
  18. Bertz
    Mervis is interesting because the data on him is essentially perfect. Seriously, if you plug his AAA peripherals into a FG leaderboard search from the last 15 years the names you get are all monsters with MVP caliber offense like Mark Teixiera, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Jose Ramirez. But the scouts are more or less lukewarm on him. Feels like there's a floor of roughly Rowdy Tellez, but the ceiling is impossible to gauge.
  19. Bertz
    Oh this would be ideal. Even if he can only go 3-4 innings
  20. Bertz
    With the outage this didn't get posted yesterday as far as I can tell, but ZiPS now sees the division as a four-way heat. All the non-Reds are within two games of each other.
  21. Bertz
    Yeah if Bellinger's back to hitting like a 1st division starter at 1B, it's pretty easy to lock him up because he could always slide back into the infield in the event you have too many good outfielders. You're probably limiting yourself to only rostering one of Davis/Nelly/Canario and only one of Mervis/Caissie, but there's a great chance attrition will force that hand anyway.
  22. Bertz
    Honestly, I think Neidert getting the start would be a sign they're about to call up Mervis so I'd take it even though I agree in not liking him on the merits. Having Assad take the start on short rest seems like the most straightforward option though, assuming Gomes goes on the IL. Setting aside any 40 man gymnastics, 3ish innings of Assad and 3ish innings from Merryweather/Estrada is probably the most likely path to a W IMO.
  23. Bertz
    I've refrained from getting too excited about McGeary since it seemed like he was just way too advanced to be at SB, but if he keeps hitting at Tenn there's not a ton of reason to pump the brakes
  24. Bertz
    Yeah I think this is right. I'm fine with Hosmer on the roster, but give him the Rios PT and Mervis the Hosmer PT unless/until Mervis fails. I hope/assume this is going to happen soon. We just finished a run with a ton of lefty starters, hence the near-0 playing time for Rios. But that's done, so I'd think once they make a call on Gomes and figure out what they're doing for tomorrow's SP it should be Mervis time. I've been amongst the most understanding of the leash Hosmer has received but Mervis not being on the roster Friday will make even me pretty irate.
  25. Bertz
    Hey guess what, the next pick is also super fast
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