Bertz

The Mariners are the most strikeout prone offense in baseball a year after being the #2, so in that sense them sniffing around Nico makes a lot of sense. That said I don't think this makes a lot of sense from the Cubs' side unless two of these three things are true: A) You're committed to Morel owning a starting IF spot going forward B) You're targeting a specific IF in FA this winter C) Your internal evals on both Triantos and Shaw are sky high For A, 3B seems unlikely at this point so I'd assume it'd be sliding Morel back to 2B? It is the one place he's shown some defensive chops in MLB. That would actually be a savvy way to inject some offense into this team. Though I'd be nervous about committing to Morel holding down a new defensive spot for a second year in a row. B's pretty straightforward. There's a pretty decent IF crop in FA this year with guys like Bregman, Kim, etc. Shaw and Triantos are both having killer seasons and look to have September-issues ETAs, but there's just no way you can count on both successfully holding down spots next year so like I said it'd have to be paired with one of the above. Overall I'm still fairly skeptical about this. It feels like IF is not yet deep enough organizationally, plus while Nico's not an offensive force he is a good compliment to the types of hitters we do already have in house.

If you remove guys who aren't really shortstops anymore, e.g. Fernando Tatis Jr., ZiPS has Dansby Swanson as 10th in the league amongst SS and worth 4.2 WAR/600. Our dumbass fanbase learned literally nothing from how nasty they were to Ian Happ and how dumb that looks a few weeks later. Now those same chuds have set their sights on Swanson as the new designated punching bag, but very little of this stuff really holds up to much scrutiny.

Assuming Soto's not an option at the ownership level, I wouldn't plan on doing heavy lifting on the lineup via FA personally. - Bregman's and Alonso's reputations far outstrip their current production at this point, both are Boras clients too so there are those associated headaches - Ha Seong Kim is awesome but not a great fit for a team with Swanson, Hoerner. and potentially PCA already in the lineup - None of the outfielders like Teoscar or O'Neill are appreciably better than what we have in house - Willy Adames would be fun if he was willing to shift off of SS to 3B, but as the top SS on the market I don't expect he'd want to do that I'd probably be into a d'Arnaud or Jansen at catcher, and certainly complimentary/bench options are fine, but otherwise I think you handle pitching in FA (Jack Flaherty?) and the lineup via trade.

Setting aside his first game where he only threw 4 pitches, Michael Arias had his 2nd game at Iowa with more than 50% pitches in the strike zone. I've been looking at that more and more for these stuff guys at Iowa where you're frankly more worries about control than command.

Sure, and his wheels. I think if you wanted to win a game tomorrow of the 4 I'd take Dansby 3rd. I think my points are: A) Dansby has played really well to this point in his tenure and the talent gap between him and the others is fairly narrow B) Specifically thinking about contracts, Dansby's currently looks like it'll end up being the best for his team, probably significantly so over Turner and Bogaerts

Coming into today Dansby Swanson has been the most productive of the 4 shortstops since they all signed their contracts https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2023&season=2024&pagenum=2&pageitems=30 He's the cheapest of the four, younger than Turner and Bogaerts, and not physically compromised like Correa. You can complain about plenty of things Jed has done but complaining about Swanson is straight up dumb.

Hunter Bigge with a 4 out save. I definitely think he's up in a month when the 40 man situation is cleaner.

Leiter already throwing bullpens is hopefully a good sign.

Peralta's been a bit wobbly lately, including some missing velo. This one might not be as tough as it looks on paper, though the Brewers are still favorites either way.

Relatedly, feels like Hodge is Counsell's #1 guy right now. Got The save on Thursday and then the 8th against the middle of the order yesterday.

That K rate is scary (slowly getting less so?) but man what power

Amaya is not having a good season but he framed the hell out of that 9th inning

Fans don't really get how streaky MLB teams are just inherently. Like the Angels have won 5 in a row as part of a 14-8 run. The Yankees, the clear class of the AL, are in a 4-10 stretch. Last year's historically awful Oakland A's had a 7 game winning streak. Etc. Even if the Cubs are a 75 win true talent team, them throwing up a 20-10 stretch over the next month is imminently plausible. Do you plan for it or expect it? God no. But like we just saw the frigging Royals start the season 34-19 this stuff happens all the time.

I think we're at the point where you should expect and plan around selling, but not so far back that it takes a ridiculous heater to get them back on track. Both 5 and 6 seeds looking like they'll require <85 wins makes a lot of things possible.

This is great, I had not started digging into prep pitching yet because it's simply not super relevant in round 1, but they are *extremely* relevant in round 2. In fact that's probably my ideal demo in the 2nd. Of the names mentioned here Levonas stands out. I'm not sure what the aging curve on spin looks like but those are some pretty absurd RPMs from an 18 year old, and paired with already solid velo that's a potentially special arm in a few years.

I don't think we have the prospect depth specifically at 2B for this to be imperative right now. With similar arguments around Happ/Suzuki you've got a critical mass of upper minors outfield prospects, plus guys like Triantos and maybe even Morel who probably could be outfielders if you wanted to go that way. At 2B like you said it's mainly just Shaw and Triantos. Maybe you could get wacky and do Morel or Busch? But especially with 3B currently open organizationally I don't see the pressure to move Hoerner, or frankly anyone on the infield. That said it's not crazy to think the tune could be a little different by this winter. If you're looking to add a FA hitter this winter the best non-Soto options are infielders like Adames and Bregman and Gleyber. Also a few weeks from now in the draft the team could end up with a Cam Smith or Christian Moore, infielders with possible September '25 ETAs. Suddenly you've got a legitimate glut. That said even in the above situation, I'm not sure Hoerner is the guy I want to dump. He has a unique offensive profile that compliments a lot of our patient (one could argue passive) low contact types. Sure the team needs power and Nico's not a power hitter, but I think the solution is getting more power from the spots that are supposed to provide it rather than further homogenizing the lineup just to squeeze in an extra 5-10 expected dongs.

Nittoli was clearly just a warm body who was physically in the area and this has been planned since Wednesday night Curious to see how Roberts does. He didn't seem quite ready but here we are.

*sigh* Sounds like Brennen's dead again

Bellinger in a walk year probably brings back something in the neighborhood of what we got for Rizzo/Bryant/Javy? But the downside those options introduce can't imagine those options...I can't imagine a deal coming together. Maybe the Yankees consider Bellinger at Yankee Stadium such a likely cheat code that it's worth it?

Busch doesn't have that Bellinger pulled fly ball magic, that said while ball in play regression will come for him I don't think a 34% strikeout rate is going to continue with his contact rates. Having an extra ~5% of his PAs end in a ball in play should mitigate the coming drop in BABIP.

Yeah Jaxon Wiggins chances of pitching for the MLB Cubs this year are about the same as mine. Even if he continues dominating he'll get a couple starts at AA and that's it. I also wonder about Horton in the bullpen. With the injury he might need to stay in the rotation and keep making starts just to get innings. He'll certainly get his cup of coffee but I'm no longer sure it'll be more. I think if you're looking for MLB bullpen help from the minors, these are the guys I'm looking at, in order of likelihood: - Daniel Palencia. He looked *really* close to having figured it out when he went down with injury. That game he closed against the Brewers was maybe the most dominant inning from a Cub since Kimbrel left. He's (knock on wood) healthy again so hopefully after another couple weeks of knocking off rust he can come back up and contribute. He's no longer the shiny new toy but he's still IMO the most likely to be a GUY - Hunter Bigge. The only guy in the org who might have more velo in the tank than Palencia. He started the season late due to injury but he is kicking ass at Iowa over the last few weeks and new for him actually throwing strikes. Cubs Twitter is howling about him not being up yet, and that's silly with only 8.1 AAA innings under his belt, but he's not *that* far off - Ethan Robert's. His results at Iowa coming off of TJ are dominant. He's not yet throwing as many strikes as I would like, and his velo is not yet where it was pre-surgery, but I do expect him up later this year and I'm hopeful he can be a thing

It is extremely normal for guys to not walk while they're in the midst of a heater. Walks are not as streaky as power but they come in waves too. Triantos was slugging .600+ in that span you called out (in a dead ball league!) of course he's going to look to continue doing damage. I don't see the point of worrying until he's not walking and also not hitting. Also I mean his walk rates in '22 and '23 were totally normal this isn't Corey Patterson where it's some career-long attribute.

He has more XBHs than strikeouts over that period why in the world would he walk? Just to check the box?

RHH Adam Frazier is still probably really high on the likely outcomes list. But if he's got the speed to steal a bunch of bases and/or provide more defensive value from the outfield that's probablg enough to bump him up into 1st division starter territory?

I think from an organization health standpoint Yesavage is probably the guy I'm rooting for. There's not really much ceiling on any of the pitchers in the system between Wiggins and Horton. Getting a SP with some ceiling, fairly minimal relief risk, and a '26 ETA would be just what the doctor ordered. If we go position player, I think you play signability games. There's like 8 college position players the Cubs could reasonably take where I'd be like "okay, right on." Take one of the guys otherwise slated for a pick in the late teens or 20's and push some money to later in the draft. I like Waldschmidt and Malcolm Moore for this, but I'm not super picky.