Bertz

You're using projections for Bellinger but last year's results for the rotation. To be apples to apples you need to compare the Soto upgrade over Bellinger to the Burnes/Fried upgrade over some combo of Wicks/Brown/Wesneski/Horton. There's also a very good chance Bellinger opts out, then it's Soto's 6.5 WAR vs. Tauchman’s 1.5. The general idea is right that we need to compare the new guys to what they're replacing, which is why 10 WAR =/= 10 Wins. However with Soto you're concentrating 6-7 WAR into one roster spot. You're also, because it's a long term contract, paying ~$40M this year for ~$60M in expected production. There's plenty of that with a Burnes as well, but not with guys on 1-2 year deals. If you want to maximize 2025 wins in FA, Soto is pretty clearly the guy. I'd go as far as to say by an order of magnitude. There are plenty of good offseasons to be had without him, but he's in line for the largest contract ever for a reason.

As late as August 24th Patrick Wisdom was still hitting at all league average clip

Which do you think is more likely: - The highest paid and generally highest regarded manager in the game is missing this crucial skill that is commonplace among his peers - You're being unreasonable about how easy it is to differentiate "no longer has the ability" and a simple slump

Because for his career until about July of this year he hit very well against lefties and soft tossing righties?

I gasped when I read this

I believe it's something proprietary Dan whipped up but similar to pre-Statcast UZR.

He was new to 3B so being something that would prorate to like -5 over a full season doesn't feel very concerning. Those middle infield numbers though, yikes. SSS of course.

I think trying to use something like Arrieta from when the team was explicitly down as a lesson for team building philosophy for 2025 is foolish. They were in pretty pure asset accumulation mode at that point. Even Mancini I think the wrong lesson is being taken. The lesson there is less "Jed likes horsefeathers 1B uh hyuk" and more "Jed was so unwilling to dip into the farm and Tom was unwilling to give him an advance on his allowance and terrible 1B production was the price." Given the low number of holes the roster has and the money available, there shouldn't be any positions left out in the cold like that this winter. What you might more reasonably worry about is to what extent he's willing to dip into the farm. A trade or two of substance or a Soto signing are probably needed to hit that magical 90 win projection Craig and Jed have called for.

2025 Projections won't hit Fangraphs for another week or two but I'd guess: Eovaldi - 2.5 Lowe - 2.5 O'neill - 2 Hoffman - 1 TBD veteran catcher - 1 Additional bench/bullpen tinkering - 1 So 10 WAR on top of a team that already looks a bit better than .500. That said because the team already has some decent depth at a couple of those spots, 10 WAR isn't going to equal 10 wins in the standings. This team probably gets you up to 87-88 wins? I think you need Soto or a trade or two to hit that 90+ win expectation.

I know the pitching down there is pretty sad, but an 1150 OPS is still extremely fun

Ironically, thinking about this more has me curious what role Jed's got in mind for trades. Assuming Bellinger is gone, with ~$80M to burn and these salary expectations it is pretty easy to do a full offseason in free agency. Something like Eovaldi (21 / year) O'Neill (16) Lowe (12) Hoffman (9) Is less than $60M, leaving plenty to address catcher and do some additional bench/bullpen fiddling. So if you're Jed and you also have plenty of resources to pursue the trade market. do you: - Hold steady and don't meaningfully dip into the farm since you don't have to. By mid-season you will have a better idea of attrition and should also have a guy or three absolutely pounding on the door and can make your big trade(s) from there - Make a trade for an impact player who is not due an impact salary. This has the double benefit of letting you aim higher in FA. For example if you trade for Brent Rooker you address "big bat" for only $5M. From there it's a lot easier to be comfortable graduating from the Nate Eovaldi tier of FA starters to the Fried/Snell/Burnes tier - Use trade to try and reduce the number of multi-year FA deals you have to hand out. For instance instead of signing Yusei Kikuchi to a $14M per year deal, trade for Dylan Cease and his $14M salary. The team currently has very little salary set to come off the books next offseason. So to maintain financial flexibility next offseason, you probably want a move or three this winter to be one-year deals, whether they be trades or FAs

*psssssttttt* Every big market name is going to be rumored tied to him

I would expect that at least one, potentially all of Wicks, Wesneski, and Brown to start the year at Iowa. That said I don't expect Kilian to make it to the holidays still in the org so it may not be something that totally blows up this depth chart. Likely just throw Kachmar or Thompson (probably Thompson?) into the bullpen for a few weeks before the first reinforcement is needed in Chicago.

Garret Crochet at his approximately $3M salary has a pretty decent argument for the biggest move Jed could possibly make this winter to impact 2025. Even including Juan Soto. As amazing as a 6-7 WAR outfielder is, in the immediate term a 4-5 WAR starter plus $40M in you pocket to spend on other players is even better. Snell I'm less keen on. Honestly mostly from a watchability standpoint. His slog 5 and dive starts are something I just don't want to sign up for in a SP market that has so many viable alternatives.

I feel like in situations like this which offer especially high potential for "the discourse" to get really stupid I always come out on the wrong end. So expect the Bears to lose today, Daniels to ball out, and and all the worst take-havers you know to have a lot to say this week.

If you're the Dodgers you basically have to tell Ohtani next year "The stolen bases were fun but now that you're pitching again don't you horsefeathering dare"

He's likely going to debut in MLB at the same age where they were being drafted. Guys who produce as much as Moises in the high minors as young as he is tend to turn into special players at a pretty good clip. If you want to pump the breaks I'd point to two things: - None of his contact, power, or patience numbers are off the charts. So it's fair to question what that carrying tool will be towards stardom - If he doesn't catch his bat has to clear the highest possible bar. Schwarber is a great example: career 123 wRC+ but only 2.2 WAR per 600 plate appearances. Schwarber without the postseason heroics is a pretty pedestrian player

WOWZA

Dodgers horsefeathering around with the 3rd time through the order penalty and finding out. Cole is one of the few guys with an argument for being built different though so Let's see if the Yankees try the same thing.

A big part of the problem with Garcia is there's not anything you can count on him doing. Like last winter, the Dodgers signed Teoscar Hernandez knowing "When Teoscar is going right he's a middle of the order force, and even when he's not he's a quality platoon bat." Adolis Garcia does not have that floor providing skill. He was better against lefties than righties this year, but still only league average against lefties. He also was a disaster on defense, and given A) his age and B) that drop in defensive value came paired with a drop in sprint speed, you have to assume that the bulk of that defensive value that walked out the door did so permanently. So even if you are absolutely certain in the bat rebounding, the upside is a ~120 wRC+ full time DH? How much value does that really have? I think there's no world where he merits a top 8 prospect in the Cubs' system. I struggle to see a world where merits someone in the top 15. Also even as someone damn near the front of the "we don't necessarily need a big bat" bandwagon feel like this is kind of overcorrecting in the other direction. Bargain hunting for rebound players is not really sensible team building strategy where the Cubs are on the win curve.

My guess would be they're going to let who they can get dictate how the defense aligns rather than let a specificdefensive alignment dictate who they go after. Seiya is not a good RFer but he's not Kyle Schwarber or Adam Dunn.

I definitely get reservations on O'neill. He's kind of like a reverse of Happ where you know for certain he will masher lefties, but he only intermittently hits righties. For me I'd be very excited to get him in the door at a price like this, but very quickly lose interest as dollars (and especially years) start rising. Joc would be interesting. Obviously forces Suzuki back into nearly full time fielder duty, but a great way to juice the offense if Bellinger leaves.