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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    I think even if he's a fit defensively Bellinger's a pretty horrific fit offensively in San Fran which is probably why we haven't seen any rumors.
  2. Bertz
    This is probably a positive for Bellinger trade purposes. It means only one of the Astros/Yankees can get an impact 3B (Bregman), and Bellinger's fit becomes that much cleaner.
  3. Bertz
    Rosenthal namechecked the Cubs as well
  4. Bertz
    Yeah count me in as hoping some permutation of Cubs-Mariners happens with Castillo coming back this way. Some lesser FA's that I'd be down with: Alex Cobb - The arm is held together with duct tape but he's very effective when he's on the mound. The last three years he's got an ERA in line with guys like Freddy Peralta and Aaron Nola, and an xFIP in line with Max Fried and Shane Bieber. You're not getting a lot of innings but it's #2 starter type performance while he's on the mound Patrick Sandoval - His ugly ERA got him DFA'd but his peripherals say he was a league average starter. Add in some potential for improvement with his age and getting away from the dumpster fire in Anaheim and he's a fun target Jakob Junis - He's been a swing man for the Giants and Brewers the last few years and been very effective. Has not gotten runway as a SP even though he's performed as a starter when asked Spencer Turnbull - He had an amazing April as a SP for the Phillies, then some injuries started piling up and the effectiveness slid before his season ended late June
  5. Bertz
    I'll say that given how expediently the SP market moves and how the Cubs aren't simply desperate for innings, I'm a bit skeptical that there will be worthwhile options in free agency in January. The team absolutely needed one SP. From here the idea should be that a guy is clearly better than Assad. Though maybe something happens like Nick Pivetta's market gets crushed by the QO. Or maybe you add another guy you feel good about on a per inning basis without needing to worry about his innings, such as Alex Cobb.
  6. Bertz
    The duo over at The Athletic has been plugged into the Cubs thinking this winter. This morning, they provide a little clarity on the teams' pursuit of starting pitching, as well as some timing: The wait on the Juan Soto sweepstakes and how that impacts the Cody Bellinger market is mentioned as a factor in the Cubs' decision making. Presumably that could cut both ways, either allowing directly for a SP to be brought in as part of a Bellinger trade, or freeing up money to pursue a wider range of free agents. Walker Buehler is name checked as a potential target. Though that middle class of free agent starters is moving quickly, so he may be gone by the time any requisite trade dominos fall. View full rumor
  7. Bertz
    More information about "Cubs Likely to Add Another Starting Pitcher"
    The duo over at The Athletic has been plugged into the Cubs thinking this winter. This morning, they provide a little clarity on the teams' pursuit of starting pitching, as well as some timing: The wait on the Juan Soto sweepstakes and how that impacts the Cody Bellinger market is mentioned as a factor in the Cubs' decision making. Presumably that could cut both ways, either allowing directly for a SP to be brought in as part of a Bellinger trade, or freeing up money to pursue a wider range of free agents. Walker Buehler is name checked as a potential target. Though that middle class of free agent starters is moving quickly, so he may be gone by the time any requisite trade dominos fall.
  8. Bertz
    Man so if Hoffman's planning to transition as well the late inning relief market is basically just Tanner Scott and all the old guys
  9. Bertz
    I don't like the idea of dealing both Bellinger and Hoerner this winter, I'd like to keep it to one or the other, but yeah I wonder if both for Castillo+ is where we end up if this ultimately ends up happening. For Jerry, it gets him the two infielders he's looking for at a smidge less than the $15M he's reportedly got available. Jed gets a SP you can hang your hat on while freeing up $10M+. I'd also assume part of the + along with Castillo would be relief help, allowing Jed to put most of the ~$40M he'd have available at that point towards the position player side.
  10. Bertz
    Apparently this Seattle Times writer today followed up and said the Mariners "covet" Nico.
  11. Bertz
    85 is probably the auto-pilot number, what they'll hit without really taking any big swings. They're at 82-83 wins right now, and have ~$30M to spend. That $30M buys you on average about 4 WAR on the FA market, but because the Cubs (thankfully) don't have a lot of replacement level players on the roster 4 WAR does not cleanly net out to 4 Wins. 87-88 wins takes a trade of substance or two, but it's doable. I don't see a path to the mythical 90 win projection without Jed really going outside himself, but 88 wins with a loaded Iowa roster in this division would have me pretty happy heading into the year.
  12. Bertz
    The team already projects back in the same ~83 win range they've been stuck in. Unless they trade Bellinger and just call it a winter they're going to be ahead of last year on paper. It's probably not going to be by as much as we'd like but it'll be a noticeably better roster.
  13. Bertz
    The FA catcher market basically broke down like this - d'Arnaud is the best bat but the glove is getting dicey and he's old - Higashioka's probably got the best glove, and he had a good '24 with the bat. He's also old - Jansen actually has the upside to be an impact player, but he's made of glass and was kind of ass this past year - Kelly's generally well rounded and had the best '24. He was a mess in '22 and '23 though which obviously was not that long ago If none of these descriptions sound amazing it's because they're not. The worrying thing is this is the top tier of guys, things get bleak the next tier down. We're pretty much Kelly or bust at this point unless there's a trade option we're not considering.
  14. Bertz
    I wonder if Jansen didn't want to go somewhere with such a capable counterpart to fight for playing time. Sign Kelly and it's not harm no foul. I liked Jansen better but not appreciably. Miss on Kelly and there's a big drop to the next guy (Elias Diaz probably?).
  15. Bertz
    Grrrrrr
  16. Bertz
    Do we think there's any chance that, in the same way a Nico Hoerner trade doesn't require a backfill because of Matt Shaw, the team doesn't view a need to backfill Cody Bellinger because of Owen Caissie? The team will CERTAINLY not open next year with both Shaw and Caissie slated for everyday at bats. But would they allow for either depending on circumstances? Add a bench player at the same position on the opposite side of the plate for some early season platoon protection, and otherwise focus the freed up resources on pitching?
  17. Bertz
    Levine including the Mariners as a team talking about Bellinger and a few hours later Kaplan saying the Cubs have inquired about Luis Castillo is definitely a thing that makes you go "hmmmmm."
  18. Bertz
    The bullpen's in such a weird spot because one reliever in the Yates tier and I'll still be nervous with PTSD from this past April but two more relievers in that tier and I'll suddenly become unreasonably confident that we've got a late 2010's Yankee bullpen of doom on our hands.
  19. Bertz
    Yates is pretty damn high on my reliever pref list. Him and Jansen would make me very happy.
  20. Bertz
    Tucked in an article about the Cubs' efforts to trade Cody Bellinger, Bruce Levine today also clarified targets for two other items on the to-do list: catcher and the bullpen. As the top two catchers on the (pretty weak) free agent catching market, Danny Jansen and Carson Kelly have long made sense as Cubs fits, but neither has had many tangible ties. Further, the note about Jansen's trade talks this winter appears to be new reporting. On the relief front, Chafin and Yates are both new names. Again, they make sense logically; the Cubs need left-handed relief help. Chafin is a long-time quality lefty setup man, and Yates' changeup allows the righty to function like a southpaw. View full rumor
  21. Bertz
    More information about "Bruce Levine On Cubs' Catcher and Relief Targets: Danny Jansen & Carson Kelly"
    Tucked in an article about the Cubs' efforts to trade Cody Bellinger, Bruce Levine today also clarified targets for two other items on the to-do list: catcher and the bullpen. As the top two catchers on the (pretty weak) free agent catching market, Danny Jansen and Carson Kelly have long made sense as Cubs fits, but neither has had many tangible ties. Further, the note about Jansen's trade talks this winter appears to be new reporting. On the relief front, Chafin and Yates are both new names. Again, they make sense logically; the Cubs need left-handed relief help. Chafin is a long-time quality lefty setup man, and Yates' changeup allows the righty to function like a southpaw.
  22. Bertz
  23. Bertz
    I think I'm here as well, but it depends on how much of Bellinger's salary is just going to turn around and be used on his replacement. If the plan after a Bellinger trade is e.g. to immediately turn around and sign Anthony Santander or Pete Alonso, then Bellinger and Hoerner are largely independent workstreams. If there is not a specific target who opens up after a Bellinger trade, and you're just trying to get some walking around money to apply generally, then yeah it feels like a potentially big problem to deal both guys.
  24. Bertz
    Not quite, but he's way stepped up the rumor mongering recently which sets off alarm bells in my brain.
  25. Bertz
    Generally I wouldn't be in a rush to extend SPs early in arb. Do it in pre-arb where you get a discount or hold off until as late as you can IMO.
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