Bertz

Can't hurt to ask!

My understanding is that the defense is supposed to be pretty top notch and the questions are around the bat. So it's probably one of those where it's just assumed he could slide back over to 3rd and excel. Like if we needed to move Nico over for some reason.

It's easy just ask Google Gemini

I don't love going multi-year for a player of this caliber. That said it's a nominal salary and left handed infielder is not something we're overflowing with on the farm. I do like that this paired with the Josh Rojas stuff seems to confirm that an (ideally LHH) infielder is a definite item still on the to-do list.

Bullpen right now is likely: Closer - TBD external acquisition Setup - Hodge, Pearson Middle Relief - Morgan, Merryweather Matchup Guys - Miller, Thielbar Long Relief - One of Assad/Wicks/Poteet Keegan Thompson and Rob Zastryzny are likely around in case someone gets hurt in ST. Or maybe with all the off days in April the team foregoes an early season long reliever and one makes the OD roster that way? Thompson is sort of in between a regular short reliever and a long guy as is Then you have Palencia, Roberts, Little, Neely, and Hollowell as your Iowa shuttle guys I wish I felt comfortable calling one of Thielbar/Merrweather/Morgan a setup guy from Day 1, but otherwise assuming that closer is on the way it's a pretty solid and very deep group.

It's kind of crazy how much the pitch models like Thielbar. PitchingBot is one of the ones on Fangraphs, and they actually have an ERA estimator. i.e. If a guy has a Stuff grade of X and a Command grade of Y they tend to have an ERA of Z. This model says Thielbar "earned" a 3.12 ERA over the last three years, which is 10th among lefty relievers behind Josh Hader and Aroldis Chapman. Even last season when Thielbar got blown up his projected ERA was 3.28, ironically tied with AJ Minter and right in the vicinity of guys like Bryan Hudson and Aaron Bummer. Stuff+ arguably likes him more. He's 11th in Stuff and 5th in overall Pitching the last three years among lefty relievers. Ironically again tied with AJ Minter on the latter. Again this model thinks he was just fine in 2024, he ranked 11th in Stuff and 10th in overall Pitching. I don't want to get too far out over my skis on this stuff, but he's definitely not the finesse lefty you expect when you see a 38 year old with a 93 MPH fastball. I think there's a floor of a quality LOOGY with pretty real potential for quality setup work.

These are the other FA 3B of note. I don't think Rojas is substantially better than most of these guys holistically, but he did feel like a better fit. I wonder if he went to the White Sox to ensure everyday at bats. Luis Urias Pros: Still young (entering his age 28 season) has been an above average hitter 3 of the last 4 years Cons: 3 straight years losing significant time to injury. SSS but Statcast says his defense slipped in a big way last year. Right handed hitter. Jorge Polanco Pros: By far the most likely guy to give you impact offense. Switch hitter excels against righties so compliments our current IF Cons: Coming off knee surgery. Not a ton of experience at 3B. Might be too good to not get a starting job somewhere Yoan Moncada Pros: Big time power and patience. Getting away from the White Sox feels like a potentially meaningful change of scenery Cons: Has not been an impact guy since '21, largely due to injury. Is much more effective as a RHH so his switch hitting isn't as useful as we'd like Paul Dejong Pros: Was a pretty great comeback story last year, played at about a 2.5 WAR pace with a strong power+defense combo Cons: He was mostly a disaster from 2020-2023 Donovan Solano Pros: Consistently above average bat Cons: Old, RHH, very much a 1B/3B tweener Amed Rosario Pros: Plays everywhere. Good contact and SB numbers. Surprising raw power Cons: RHH. SSS defensive numbers all over the dirt are ugly. Swings at everything

I'm curious what about the Padres' plans change based on the Sasaki decision. Like does landing Sasaki make a Cease trade more likely because you feel like you've backfilled his star power and can settle for improving depth? Or does it make it less likely because you've filled your biggest need for league minimum, so suddenly dumpster diving for e.g. a LFer (run it back with Peralta?) doesn't feel as bad? I think you can logic it either direction if they miss too. But yeah I agree a Dylan Cease trade feels kind of perfect from the Cubs' end. I actually like that he's in his walk year. In addition to keeping costs manageable, it feels like having the option to pivot to Cease if you fail to extend Tucker has value. And of course replacing Assad in the rotation with Cease is a massive massive upgrade. Like you say the Cubs would be heavy favorites in the Central and probably have an argument for being as good as any non-Dodger team.

Scratch this one off the list

It's absolutely astonishing to me that people watched last year's team and don't see the value in having depth that isn't horsefeathers. Like you couldn't find a better case study and yet the majority of the fanbase just completely whiffs on the lesson.

Gio Urshela should not be a meaningful part of any team's 1B plans

Josh Rojas has about 1.5x as much WAR the last three years, is nearly 3 years younger, and as a lefty more naturally compliments our current infielders.

This isn't really true at all. 23 of MLBTR's top 50 free agents are still on the board. Options are slim if you want one guy to give ~$25M per year on sure. But there's still plenty of talent available and even with the $35-40M we think Jed still has to play with there's still some tough decisions to make to fill out the roster.

There are three times where the team has not spent up to the LT: 1. Circa ~2015 when Bryant et al were so cheap the team more or less couldn't spend up to the line without getting worse 2. When the team was really bad in 2012/2013/2022 3. In 2021 coming off of COVID with in person attendance plans being very tenuous Ive yet to hear anything of substance about why this year would be a new 4th category. It's mainly just specious "it hasn't happened yet so it won't happen" ninniness.

Canario's fungible at this point. I expect he has a fight ahead of him to make the team, and even if he makes the team there's a decent chance he's out of the org by Memorial Day.

Yeah this is pretty close to the mental math I've got in my head as well. I expect they add another domestic SP regardless of the Sasaki decision but that's my only quibble. A pretty easy illustration for signing Thielbar is the bench and Trueblood's article yesterday. The team needs a backup 1B. Connor Joe would probably cost $3M, while Mark Canha would cost closer to $10M. Would you rather have Thielbar and Canha or Minter and Joe? It's not a trick question, either is defensible, these are just the types of tradeoffs we're talking.

I dunno in the year 2024 I'd prefer the team actually put some thought into their signings rather than just sort a leaderboard by ERA and make their decisions that way.

Funny thing I just saw: Thielbar had a higher Stuff+ than Minter last year A big part of that is that Minter was diminished last year likely due to his hip injury, but also the pitch models really like Thielbar.

That's pretty melodramatic

Thielbar's good when kept to LOOGY work, and intermittently can be effective against righties. Very similar to Hoby Milner who they were tied to earlier this winter. He's very much our Tyson Miller from the other side of the plate rather than a full setup man. I'd expect he gets ~$5M and the other reliever we end up is pretty unequivocally the closer as opposed to a Chris Martin type.

Connor Joe has a 190 wRC+ against the Cubs and an 88 wRC+ against all non-Cub opponents for his career. I don't think that's meaningful but I thought it was funny. I think Joe's probably on the Mt. Rushmore of active Cub killers with Ozzie Albies and Paul Goldschmidt. I think Canha is obviously the preferred option, but I'd guess he takes $8-10M to sign while Joe's more like $2-3M. Feels like this decision is pretty closely linked to the second SP. If we end up with someone low salary, like your Feltner idea a few weeks back, the team can basically grab whoever it wants for the bench and bullpen. Someone on a closer to market rate salary will require some skimping elsewhere and settling for Joe over Canha is one of the less painful places to skimp.

Yeah Steamer has him at 2.0 WAR/600 PAs and ZiPS has him at 1.5. That's a quality second division starter and realistically if you start setting your sights much higher you start getting into guys who aren't going to settle for sharing the position with Shaw.

So you'd like less transparency into the team's decision making?