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Haren was traded after a breakout season. Peavy has been outstanding for several years now and is a perennial Cy Young candidate, not to mention he won it in '07. What the A's got for Haren isn't a good comparison to what the Padres should expect for Peavy. If you look at Haren and Peavy's PECOTAs before this year, Haren's MORP for 2008-2010 totals to a little over $45M. If you look at Peavy's MORP 2009-2013 is roughly $82M. Now PECOTA is just one projection system and MORP is far from perfect, but I'm just using it as an example of how the two players were projected BEFORE this season. So, as of the trade Haren was projected to be worth $45M and had a $16M contract over the next three years. Peavy (as of last years PECOTAs is projected to be worth $82M and has a $78M contract over the next 5 years. Doesn't matter. If healthy, Peavy is a guaranteed ace. The big market, playoff caliber teams are going to go that extra mile for the definitive #1. Haren, while very good, and a better deal for the $, simply isn't that guy. The market for those guys is different. If the haul is similar, it will be because of health concerns after this past year that Peavy just had. Peavy is probably more valuable, but I think you're overestimating what Peavy has done in the past 2 seasons compared to what Haren has done, especially considering Petco.

That was a good one. The Marlins-Indians series in '97 was pretty damn entertaining, too. Nothing tops 2001.

I don't understand why people are acting like this is such a terrible World Series. I'm more interested in the World Series this year than I have been in awhile. Seriously, do we really need to see another Red Sox world series? Phillies vs Rays is good baseball with good stories all around.

He'll never be able to hit a sinker with that swing.

Would this qualify? "I love 20 year old kids who just recently found out about sabermetrics." If I was 15 years younger I'd take offense to that comment... I agree. That was a pointless and unnecessary shot to me. You know an argument is hopeless when they bring out the age card. Just how often have you personally used the phrase "You'll get it when you're older"? I'm only 23 also. I didn't mean it like that.

I'll do it as soon as you explain to me all aobut how VORP is formulated and how home/road splits are taken into account. Until you can do that, you really shouldn't be using it as your only crutch to an argument. "Oh wait...if you were able to do that it would have been done a week ago". Oh, you can't do that? Now I remember why the conversation ended. I'm not doubting VORP, but to use it so much in an argument when you really know very little about it is pretty ridiculous. Very ridiculous actually. These crazy kids who just found out about sabermetrics... By the way, I do think that he should be in the top 10 of the MVP voting after looking at the mediocrity of AL hitters this season. It seemed like there were more standout seasons in the AL this year. That said, I still think his good season was highly overrated/exxaggerated and he wouldn't be getting the same kind of treatment and love if it wasn't for his story and the fact that he's likable. I just checked over this thread and realized how very little you added to the argument. Your first post was an inspired "what's wrong with you?" and then once other people made their arguments you just piggy backed them. Then you dropped the "well he was 5th in VORP" bombshell (after someone had already posted it of course) and that was pretty much your contribution to the argument. Why do I get the feeling that you just started watching baseball a couple years ago and wouldn't watch at all if it weren't for the Cubs? Why do I get the feeling that you were just recently introduced to about 5 different stats that are common among Sabr people? You remind me of the kid who hides behind his older brother in a fight and then after he knocks the other kid down you jump out and yell "yeah...suck it!". Wait, wasn't that actually a quote from you earlier in this thread? <3 VORP. I know nothing about it........ but it's so badass.

Wait when did Peavy become Johan Santana on a Brawndo/HGH cocktail Good lord, If that's not going to get it done. No one else will be get him either. Short of the Red Sox. But that's besides the point anyways. Shark is not being traded this offseason. Peavy and Santana are the #1 and #2 pitchers in baseball, and it's not even particularly close. And since Peavy is under contract for three years, whereas Santana is under contract for one... well, it's gonna be pretty expensive to pick him up. How is Peavy better than Sabathia? Even with the help of Petco he's not better. When you actually take into account the park it's even worse. To say that he's a top 2 pitcher "and it's not even particularly close" (which is an extremely played out term on here BTW) is pretty silly. It's debatable whether or not Santana is still a top 2 pitcher also. He probably is, but I don't like his steady decline that he's been on over the last few years. His numbers are still very good, but they're nowhere near what they were a few years ago. I wonder what his numbers would look like if he still pitched in the AL. I've read a lot of stuff this season about scouts saying his stuff isn't even close to what it was when he was with the Twins.

Keep taking pointless and unnecessary shots. It's really helping your argument. I now agree with everything you're saying. :good:

Would have been a point either way

Wait, can you explain to me what I didn't understand? Please? Seems like you were the one discarding obvious logic, not me. It's cool though, because VORP shows you're right. It doesn't matter that you don't understand VORP, as long as it backs up your opinion. I love 20 year old kids who just recently found out about sabermetrics. I can't wait until you guys change the subject and start talking about movie quotes because you can't accept the fact that Josh Hamilton really wasn't that special this year.

People in this thread who said Peavy was as good or better than Santana: Meph, Rob People in this thread who expressed reservations about trading for Peavy, and/or disagreed with Meph/Rob's characterization of him: I don't want to go back and count, it's over half a dozen. You're embarrassing yourself with this over-the-top "what is wrong with everyone why does everyone think this thing that is clearly wrong and I must bombastically correct you for the error of your ways" schtick. You're exaggerating. Over half a dozen? I think not. That is over the top. You may call it bombastic posting, but if you feel strongly about a subject I don't see a reason to put a little verve into it, instead of everyone trying to out Spock/robot each other. Plus, in order to get embarrassed I would have to care about the reputation of this little internet persona, which I don't. I basically get ganged up on about petty nonsense in nearly every thread I post in, oh no, I'm not proclaiming Jay Jackson is Tim Lincecum just yet, I'm such a negative guy, everybody pile on. That's part of what I don't like about these boards, what starts as a one-on-one disagreement turns into 7 people taking cheap shots at you personally instead of your argument. I just wish there was less damn posturing. Uh-oh, somebody thinks the fact that Josh Hamilton recovered from drug addiction does not make him a better baseball player than if he never took drugs in the first place! Better send out 10 guys with "internet tough guy" attitudes to deal with the problem. i love the way you just make up these "prevailing board attitudes" on completely random topics. i can't decide if you're just a really bad poster with a need to be persecuted or perhaps the greatest troll in nsbb history You're kind of proving his point right there. Just sayin... people "pile on him" because he attributes statements to people incorrectly and because he's wrong quite often. that's not piling on, that's called correcting. It is? Why don't you take a look at the last page and a half of the Hamilton thread and tell me what that is accomplishing. That's a joke. I don't get what your name calling is accomplishing either. It's like if you have even a slightly heretic opinion on something you're going to get ripped apart for it by an angry mob..... even if what you said makes sense. Plus I didn't really see anybody correct him in that thread. I saw a bunch of people who refused to acknowledge the affect the park had and people spouting stats that they really know nothing about. There's only one thing worse than old school baseball guys who hate people who put stock in sabermetrics....and that's people who cherry pick stats and act like they can't be proven wrong because of it/them. Poeple talk about Hamilton's OPS+ at home but then fail to mention the huge home OPS+ numbers of stiffs like Ramon Vazquez, Marlon Byrd, Brandon Boggs, and Michael Young. Whatever though, this is a thread about Peavy so I'll end it.

Trading Bay for Soriano owuld be silly. Bay is a better player and is 35435434x cheaper. At this point I can't really imagine any team even considering taking on Soriano's contract.

People in this thread who said Peavy was as good or better than Santana: Meph, Rob People in this thread who expressed reservations about trading for Peavy, and/or disagreed with Meph/Rob's characterization of him: I don't want to go back and count, it's over half a dozen. You're embarrassing yourself with this over-the-top "what is wrong with everyone why does everyone think this thing that is clearly wrong and I must bombastically correct you for the error of your ways" schtick. You're exaggerating. Over half a dozen? I think not. That is over the top. You may call it bombastic posting, but if you feel strongly about a subject I don't see a reason to put a little verve into it, instead of everyone trying to out Spock/robot each other. Plus, in order to get embarrassed I would have to care about the reputation of this little internet persona, which I don't. I basically get ganged up on about petty nonsense in nearly every thread I post in, oh no, I'm not proclaiming Jay Jackson is Tim Lincecum just yet, I'm such a negative guy, everybody pile on. That's part of what I don't like about these boards, what starts as a one-on-one disagreement turns into 7 people taking cheap shots at you personally instead of your argument. I just wish there was less damn posturing. Uh-oh, somebody thinks the fact that Josh Hamilton recovered from drug addiction does not make him a better baseball player than if he never took drugs in the first place! Better send out 10 guys with "internet tough guy" attitudes to deal with the problem. i love the way you just make up these "prevailing board attitudes" on completely random topics. i can't decide if you're just a really bad poster with a need to be persecuted or perhaps the greatest troll in nsbb history You're kind of proving his point right there. Just sayin...

How about dump Lee's contract and use the money to put Dunn at first? Slide DeRosa to RF full time, give Fontenot a full time shot, then have Fukudome and Pie battle it out for the second half of the CF platoon with Reed Johnson. Soriano- R Fontenot- L Ramirez- R Dunn- L Soto- R DeRosa- R Theriot-R Pie/Fuku/Johnson- R/L Actually that doesn't really look so good.

Jeremy Brown is going to get so much ass after this comes out.

i don't mind wood all that much, but man i am just waiting for the day not too long from now when i can be pissed off by reading something on here telling me that dempster will be a cub for another 4 years if hendry is smart and lets his emotions cool...letting dempster go will open this team up for a little more offseason wrangling I completely agree. Unfortunately I think it's inevitable that he's going to lock him up.

I'm not saying we should just dump him, but I'd be open to trading him. Where is this .900 OPS hitter you see? I tghink you're giving Lee way too much credit. I don't think that was a "down year". He was not even remotely close to being the same hitter. He was a complete mess. His GB% was way up and none of his peripherals look good. It's not like he had some bad slumps or hit into bad luck, he was just flat out awful for 5 months of the season. At this point I'd say that an .850 OPS would be a pleasent surprise. How can you say you expect a minimum of an .850 OPS when he had an .823 OPS this season and a .759 OPS after May 1?

I guess Milton Bradley, but I'd be shocked if any of those players ended up with the Cubs. After re-signing Dempster/Wood there probably won't be money for Dunn/Sabathia, I doubt Hendry and Lou are looking for a shortstop, and I don't think we have the pieces to trade for Roberts and definiately not for Peavy. After Dempster/Wood I expect close to nothing this offseason. I just don't see where the resources are going to come from.

Offensively Derrek Lee did pretty much nothing to help the Cubs reach the playoffs last year. The Cubs could have put pretty much any first baseman in baseball at first last year and the Cubs still would have made the playoffs easily. His defense is nice, but an .823 OPS as a first baseman just doesn't cut it. I'm not saying we should dump him just for salary reasons, but I would not mind trading him at all. If he hits like he did in the last 5 months of last season he's going to be hurting the team. Oh, and Derrek Lee was not a "solid player" for the last 5 months of last season so there is no reason to think he'll get better and not worse over the next couple of years. He was terrible.

That's one way to look at it. The other way is that the starting pitcher will actually control more PAs than a hitter over the course of a full season.

Pretty ugly stuff. Last year they were swept by a team that was swept by a team that was swept by the World Series champions. That is literally as far away you can be from winning the World Series while actually making the playoffs.

Wait, it doesn't matter if he was helped greatly by his own park? Seriously? It really seems like you're reaching now. Of course it matters, because if any other player was put in Hamilton's position this season, he would have recieved the same beneifits. So because Hamilton gets that benefit, he is more valuable than those other guys? No, the stadium is just more valuable. This is relevant because every visiting player that steps into that staidum gets the same advantage, putting Hamilton less in front of the curve. Put it this way. Let's say the Rangers trade for Mark DeRosa, who then goes .300/.385/.525 with 26 home runs next season Meanwhile, Adrian Gonzalez goes .285/.365/.525 while playing in Petco. Pretend for a minute that they both played the same position... so who was more valuable? By your logic, DeRosa would be, although Gonzalez would have put up better numbers if they both played in the same park. That makes sense to you? If position is factored into MVP voting, then ballparks should be as well. Of course DeRosa would be. You're mixing up predictors for future results and actual results. Going forward Gonzalez would obviously be the best bet, but that's just not what happened. That is seriously some flawed logic. A players worth, value, and overall skill level is determined by those around him. If the average OPS was 1.500, a 1.100 OPS would be considered terrible. When hitters step into a park like Arlington that turns every body into a better hitter, you are less ahead of the curve. If it turns a .750 OPS hitter into an .800 OPS hitter, then a 1.000 hitter is no more valuable than a .950 OPS hitter who plays somewhere else, because that is how far ahead of the curve he is. It's not the "most productive hitter" award, it's the most valuable player. In the example I gave with Gonzalez and DeRosa, Gonzalez would not be the most productive hitter, but would be the most valuable. If you could choose between the 2 players in the example, knowing both would be playing in the same park, you'd pick Gonzalez..... meaning he had more value.

are you seriously this clueless? lol Yes I am, and so are you. The difference is that I'm not using VORP as an argument and then failing to explain anything about it. Good argument.

Nope, I'm the one whp provides numbers. The rest provide stats that are completely meaningless without explanation.

It really is comical that people flip out whenever anybody questions Hamilton. If you're denying that Arlington pumped up his numbers, you're lying and you know it. If this was any other player, you'd all be agreeing. Instead, you'll keep bringing up numbers that are meaningless without explanation and then blast any blasphemer who questions it. Keep teaming up on us as we provide simple logic though, it sounds fun.