I don't understand how you can expect anything better. Hell, I don't know how you could expect anything that good. That's a steal. Limited market for 1bmen, and I don't think the rest of the league is as dismissive of his worrisome 2011 as some Cubs fans are. The Cardinals are offering $22.5 million AAV. Jumping from that to $30 million is Tom Hicksing yourself, even if you get to take a few years off the end. If you subscribe to the 1 WAR = $5 mil theory, he's an excellent bet to exceed the proposed $30 million AAV for the first 3-4 years. I think you're greatly understating the value of "taking a few years off the end." I would rather not commit Theo's sin of paying for past performance in years 7-10 or whatever. Rather pay him what he's worth when he's worth it; needless to say, that means happily upping the AAV.