squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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And again.
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Guardians top 3 relievers by fWAR have all pitched both of the last two games, which is a nice little benefit. Their entire bullpen has been incredible (have 7 qualified relievers throwing at least 42 innings and the highest ERA is 3.86), but at least we'll see the lower tier guys a little more than normal. Ben Lively, going tonight, gives up a ton of home runs. Matthew Boyd is making his debut Tuesday, he sucks but he went 6 scoreless in AAA last week so in theory he'll give you a full start. Alex Cobb on Wednesday is also coming back from injury, has made one major league start (and it didn't go well), so not worried about that one either. I don't know, as dumb as it sounds to dismiss a 69-49 team, especially relative to our 59-60 team....there's not a lot here? It's (a very good) Jose Ramirez and Kwan offensively (besides the inevitable Josh Naylor HR), their starting pitching stinks (Bieber and his 2 April starts was their second most valuable starter until yesterday, and we're missing Bibee who has put up 2.7 of the 3.2 total starter fWAR). Bullpen is a serious problem but they've had to throw a lot lately and their top guys had a busy weekend. They're basically a 2020-2023 Brewers clone, which admittedly hasn't gone very well for us. But it's a winnable series.
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Not having a game today is unamerican
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I’m honestly kinda shocked they did it two other times
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Wins a win
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Contact play works again, just like always…
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Since he went 7 innings on 6/30, he hasn't pitched more than 4 innings. They aren't going to deviate from that course with by far their most valuable asset because it's a Cubs game. Nobody is that stupid. Besides the fact that since that start, he's put up a 4.24/4.18/3.89 line and his walk rate is over double what it is on the year. Baseball is baseball, dumb things happen, if we're a 70% chance to win both games it's still going to take some luck to sweep. But it's not going to be because of Grady Sizemore or these guys treating this like it's the world series or whatever.
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I think that last part is by design to limit his innings. Remember it coming up when there was all that drama around his trade demands. But yeah, just avoid disaster the first few innings and you should be in good shape.
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Might have worded that wrong. I think Tucker in any given year is probably twice as valuable than Paredes (Paredes is 50% as valuable, said another way) . I'll take 2x production in 2025 as a trade off for losing Paredes' production in 2026/2027 (offset by what I still believe is a valuable 12 month head start in working on a contract extension).
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10-9 since the break isn't going to get it done. 6-2 in our last 8 will. Take care of business against the suddenly scorching hot Sox this weekend, hopefully Cleveland continues this little tailspin (4 game losing streak) in their 4 game in 3 days series against these Twins and it carries into our series, and then you've got Toronto (9 games under), Detroit (6 games under), Miami (30 games under), Pittsburgh (.500 but come on, it's Pittsburgh), Washington (10 games under), and then Pittsburgh again.
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RIght, because, as you mentioned a couple times, the years of control. I think the gap here, to oversimplify, is that you think Paredes is like a 75% version of Tucker, and you're doing the math on 3 years v 1 year and coming up with Paredes being worth 2.25x. In my mind, I think he's closer to 50%, which would make it 1.5x, and I'm putting significant weight on that increase in production for next year (basically, 2025>>2027). Also want to reiterate the unique value Paredes brings to the Astros. Three more expected home runs there (25) this year than in Tampa (22). 13(!) more than in Wrigley. Purely value wise and how I'm discounting future value, I think it's about even. But it logically makes sense to see Paredes as uniquely valuable to Houston and consider finding a way to exploit that.
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Look we just traded Christopher Morel, -0.2 fWAR YTD, to a team that is very well known for being incredibly intelligent. That's the market for Paredes. It was literally set 10 days ago. We both see the fWAR totals for him, but it's clear that there are significant concerns that he won't be able to sustain those going forward (and/or in a different stadium). Tucker has been quoted as being open to a extension, the ownership has been quoted as calling the CBT thresholds a cap. Both of those could be gamesmanship. But it's possible that they are deciding to spend the $35m/year he's going to command elsewhere.
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I mean, that actually happened. He should have had more depth, but he didn't, and Steele and Taillon getting hurt Opening Day/in March really exposed the underbelly.
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Well I think he's markedly better, and I'm putting a lot of emphasis on the next 2 years given the contract situation of the rest of the team, so the step up in 2025 means a lot. And I'm putting pretty significant value on the 12 month head start we'd have in signing him to an extension. Tucker becomes that elite bat, and you have a year where you don't have to compete with the other 29 teams. It's funny how everyone is always terrified to trade with the Rays but we somehow got a 'gift' from them. Paredes has been outpacing his xwOBA for years. He's an elite hitter in Tampa and a good hitter elsewhere. What works in Tampa works in Houston. He's someone who would be uniquely valuable to them. We should take advantage of it.
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Tucker has been more valuable in 60 games this year than Paredes has in 109. I mean, we just got Paredes for Chris Morel and everyone was thrilled we didn't touch the actual prospects. But if you want to meet in the middle and do it straight up, I'm even more in.
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Since this wasn't part of one of Happs hot streaks, do we get to count it when we decide if he's good?
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I'm making this up on the fly, but I think, to the extent we feel at least somewhat comfortable with Shaw or Triantos at third next year, the Tucker trade starts with Paredes. Let them and the Crawford boxes reap the benefits of Paredes' profile. If Bellinger opts out, you've plenty of money to lock in Tucker long term and also get a starter. If he stays, you make some tough decisions on flipping on whoever is left from the PCA/Caissie/Alcantara group.
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Will the Paredes trade be good or bad? Let's see based on this AB
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Maybe. DiPoto loves making moves. The contractual details on non-roster players at the bottom of the Cots/now Baseball Prospectus excel is like 35 rows deep. But also....everyone is pretty much in agreement that we want to spend big on an elite bat right? One in particular, but either way something similar. If we go that route, we'll have Happ, Swanson, Cody (probably), Seiya, Hoerner, Paredes, Busch, and Big Elite Bat all reasonably locked into starting spots through 2026. That's 8 non-catchers. And then you have PCA, Shaw, Alcantara, Caissie, Ballesteros, Triantos, six guys, all of them having spent the second half in AAA or Chicago. You can try to maximize every individual value, or you can just...go for it and regret it later. Include Nico if you want to offset some salary, Suzuki if they want a pretty guaranteed plus bat. From the list above there's like 6 options. Might as well have one.
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Assad has never struck anyone out. His K/9 this year is a career high and it's actually higher than his season average for this bad stretch dating back to 5/21 (4.83/6.11/5.09). In this stretch he's down like 30 BABIP points and his HR/FB rate is up 50% and his walk rate is up from 3.88 career to 5.4, probably as a result. His ideal form is probably just pounding the bottom of the zone and letting Swanson and Nico do what they do so his ERA ends up a good amount below his FIP.
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Mariners are basically a coin flip to make the playoffs right now, 21st in wRC while being 3rd in pitching. If they miss the playoffs, think it's logical they decide to trade defense for offense. Raleigh is their most valuable non-pitcher this year, comfortably, by total value, but it's driven heavily by defensive metrics (3rd in baseball overall since last year). I did forget about Arozarena and his seemingly endless team control, so I guess they're only really looking for one outfield slot, but their DH and 1B production has also been a disaster. Their Top 10 prospect list, by position, goes C/SS/2B/2B/CF (in A ball)/SS/SP/SP/DH (in A ball)/RP. They need bats, probably cheaply. They can reset the team control clock with Ford probably by late next year and pick up a couple top 50 bat first, essentially MLB ready prospects to slot into the outfield, first, second (also opens up next year), or DH.
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Catchers aged 27 or younger by fWAR since the beginning of last year William Contreras 8.7 Adley 8.1 Raleigh 7.3 Bailey 6.5 Moreno 4.7 Alvarez (Mets) 4.6 Diaz (Astros) 4.2 Jeffers 3.9 Kirk 3.7 Naylor 3.5 Wells 2.9 O;Hoppe 2.5 Honestly the name that stands out to me is Raleigh. He hits bombs but K rate is 30%, career OBP is below .300 and they're very much struggling for offense. They also have Harry Ford down in AA who is their top prospect, not a for sure thing catcher but playing there predominantly. Their outfield besides Julio is pretty dire, Mitch Haniger looks broken, Victor Robles is their current starting center fielder? Justin Turner is their DH? It's pretty bleak. Give them Amaya and some combo of Caissie, Alcantara, Mo Baller. Go sign Soto. Win the World Series.
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lol it's 1:20 on a wednesday
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Dansby tripled in Hoerner and then scored on a wild pitch for anyone following along here.
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Yeah full disclosure I started my response here with a position that more guys on that list bust than one would think and it's just survivorship bias, but I went through his 2020 list and there were a fair amount of present day quality players in the top 40 of the list. I think my initial response was based on overall value and I think tinged by, somehow, a totally separate Mike Cameron discussion we had around here back in spring training (in comparison to PCA and that being a 'disappointing' outcome). I think Alcantara has the skill set to put up hitting numbers a la Cameron. The ability and health luck to do it for a decade plus is a different story. And, to close the book on my weird points, I think there's a lot of value in producing Brandon Marshs and our system has been very bad at it. They should never headline your team, but paying them $750k instead of Happ $18m to give you 1 more win a year makes it a lot easier to go get the Sotos of the world.
