squally1313

I think the organization was in a really bad spot when Hoyer over as the head of the front office. Benefit of hindsight, looking at the 2020 team and the top prospects rankings and knowing what we know of those players now, it wasn't pretty. Yes, Jed was around and played a part in the organization being where it was. But if we're going to ding him for that than we have to credit him for all the other success he was there for under Theo's tenure. Since Jed has taken over, he's been....fine. I don't think there was a magic turnaround path and I think every post the teardown you could point to clear, if a little incremental, improvements in the overall health of the organization. But I also recognize it's been 5 years, and that the Cubs have such a clear financial advantage over the rest of the division. It's tricky to put into words, but I kinda feel like going into this past offseason there was a path open to trying to be a mega team, or there was a path to just be the clear favorite in the division in the next couple years, and thus far we've chosen the second option. If we were to kick this thing into overdrive (and a Tucker/PCA extension, trade for a top pitcher type moves can still get us there), I'm more than willing to accept the slow, gradual build into what was an 85 win team with a top farm system heading into the 2024-2025 offseason. If the ultimate goal was just to win the division every year and roll the dice....am I happy we're here? Yes. Do I think it needed to take 5 years to get there? No.

You’ve got it backwards.

I feel like you implied earlier that if the cubs miss some benchmark by a game it will be because of that one decision. Possible I missed some sarcasm. Hyperfixtating on one pitch call, not even some sort of execution or outright mistake, when there were multiple other factors that led to that loss (the subsequent walk, the GW hit, Tucker not catching the ball in the first place, not executing with RISP in the 6th and the 9th) is very dumb, before even considering the factors that led to the other 65-70 losses, not to mention the components of all the wins. Baseball is great and dumb and fun because all nine innings count equally and no matter how high you’re winning expectancy gets, it’s never 100% until the game is over, and they play 162 games so weird fluky things are going to happen. It’s what keeps you watching.

1. It is a 162 game season. 2. The Marlins win expectancy after that pitch was 14%

I think my bigger point, and I guess I’m genuinely asking this, is like…have you followed Derek Hill’s career closely? Is this based on a deep dive of his metrics and scouting reports? Because my suspicion is that it’s based on watching like, at most a single digit handful of his at bats, or even just the two prior pitches. Which is fine, and totally normal, for a terrible baseball player on a terrible baseball team. But that is absolutely not how I want my Major League Baseball team with millions of dollars spent on scouting and analytics to operate! Like 30% of MLB pitchers can touch upper 90s these days, hitters flat out incapable of hitting that kind of speed simply don’t make the majors. His first AB of the year he pulled upper 90s from Skenes for a 110 EV double. I mean, the Rajai Davis home run is seared in everyone’s memories. It’s just not that simple.

But he Only Has Two Pitches and therefore he sucks because Starters Need Three Pitches

The obsession over this pitch is maybe the funniest running subplot on the board for me

Dansby

Let’s get two more

lol what a dumb sport

A 97 win team would exceed everyone’s wildest expectations. In your mind, how do they lose the other 65 games in a way that doesn’t trigger this kind of panic?

They swept the series

But they aren’t.

Flexen is pretty valuable in a bullpen saving way. The bad thing is that he’s only here because the guy we signed for that job is in the rotation, and the worse thing is that we might have to sign another flexen soon when this flexen has to fill a rotation spot.

hey get out of here nerd, we've got narratives to push

Good sweep. Wins are wins. "This garbage bullpen is going to keep us from being an elite team" (Bullpen throws 10.2 innings without an earned run to win three tight games) "Well the offense sucks"

I just can't imagine they'd give up on him with 3.5 years left on his deal. The actual cash spend went up this year (and goes up slightly going forward), but $15m AAV is really good value for a pitcher as good as Keller. LIke, giving up an established starter with 3.5 years of team control for a AAA outfielder ready to step into their major league line up helps them....in what competitive time frame?

What a first post.

Fine. I am so bored at work and this week is fake anyways. Teams with less than 5% chance of making the playoffs: Orioles (1.8%) Eflin - FA after this year, like $10m left. Elite in 2023, very solid in 2024, a very slow start coming off a minor injury in 2025. Charlie Morton - FA after this year, like $10m left. Basically looked like the pitcher version of Justin Turner to start the year, but has turned it around a little bit. Actually didn't realize he got pulled from the rotation so his game log being filled with 1-3 earned runs is not nearly as impressive, but a 3.98 ERA in 20 innings in May. Sugano - FA after this year, like $8m left. Strikes out and walks absolutely no one, a very luck driven 3.23 ERA on the year but the advanced numbers have him as a low to mid 4 guy. White Sox (0%) - To their credit all their pitchers currently have tons of control, so no obvious choices here. Adrian Houser if things get real desperate. Athletics (2.5%) Severino - Just signed a two year deal with a player option, has been very good but can't see them bailing this early on a big signing. Jeffrey Springs - $6m left this year, $10m next year, team option for 2027. Historically very effectively when he actually pitches, this year (basically a Boyd type), this year mediocre with a lot of innings. Seems like a perfect A, so probably not available. Angels (0%) Tyler Anderson - Owed $10m this year, FA after that. Not good, will soak up innings. Kikuchi - Just signed a 3/$63m deal so can't see him being available. Hendricks - I mean....maybe??? Nationals (0%) Trevor Williams - Somehow also signed for next year still but basically Colin Rea with a little more upside. Gore - Covered elsewhere. Pay for him. Soroka - A little more interesting, but it's just been too long since he was good. Marlins (0%) Alcantara - Covered elsewhere. Cal Quantrill - Will eat up innings and not much else. Pirates (0.1%) Keller - Not going to be available. Heaney - FA after this year, cheap, will eat innings, go get him. Rockies (0%) Kyle Freeland - There's enough there to be interested but the Rockies are so weird trying to trade with them seems pointless. lol I once again got bored halfway through. Bolded the names I want to save everyone the time.

While he could be the 3rd best pitcher of the last 15 years, what if instead he was only the 13th best pitcher of the last 15 years

There are probably worse worst case scenarios than Career 36.6 fWAR in 247 career starts Stephen Strasburg.

Toronto is 3 games back in the wild card right now, we're about a month away from any of their performing players being a realistic option.

It's probably their choice of any three players not named PCA. Think you start at Shaw and Horton, and then at least one of the other top prospects.

You've got over a quarter of the league with a sub-5% chance of making the playoffs. I understand how this stuff normally works but it's going to be really annoying when the Dodgers give up international slot money for Charlie Morton and Soto next week.

I know Boyd is a veteran arm and the circumstances are different but he's about a month away from blowing by anything he's done in the last 5 years as well. 2020: 60.1 IP 2021: 88 IP 2022: 21.2 IP 2023: 71 IP 2024: 83 IP 2025: 55.1 IP