squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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Pretty excited to trade Christian Hernandez for Kyle Stowers in June 2027.
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Swanson Tucker Suzuki Kelly (DH) PCA Hoerner Amaya Turner Berti
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Zach Eflin?
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Weathers looked pretty solid in his rehab starts and got up to 17 batters last time out, so assume there won't be much of a restrictor here. Having said that, despite the top prospect background he hasn't been very good at any point in the majors, so hopefully Suzuki, Dansby, Kelly, and dare I say Turner jump on the lefty, Taillon gives us his normal performance and Keller/Hodge do the rest.
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In the last calendar year he's put up 5.0 fWAR, good for 21st offensively in baseball. And that's with a .395 OPS in June and a .611 OPS in July. (Fun asides on that leaderboard: Aaron Judge has 13.8(!!!) fWAR, Dansby is 17th, Happ is 34th, Seiya is 49th, Tucker is 51st in 81 games, Hoerner 57th, Busch 100th). Fun with arbitrary end points, he's 6th since August 1st, 4th this year.
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Yeah I mean, honestly I was mostly trying to stir the pot last night with that. He's been bad, the 14% walk rate is pretty much the only thing one can point to as evidence he's still giving competitive ABs. Big picture, it's May 14th, we're not even 20% into a year and talking about a part time player. The sample sizes are just very small.
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Excited for tomorrows game thread where we decide on a new player that needs to be cut/killed while (most likely) sweeping the series
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lol
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You can with two outs (when it doesn’t hit the guy, apparently) is I think where you’re still a little off. Less than two outs they don’t let you with a guy on first to prevent the defense going for a double play.
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I don’t think that’s right but I obviously didn’t know the rule when the PCA AB happened. think TT might finally be right about something for once…
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TIL I learned that that’s a dead ball for some reason
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I wonder if berti is dealing with something
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation
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If the Cubs thought Ballesteros was a true .350+ OBP guy in the majors today, they'd probably have figured out a way to get him into the lineup before now. So let's say he's a .330 OBP guy. Over a weeks worth of PAs (the expected remaining length of Happ's IL stint), the difference between that and Turner's .270 adds up. Post that, you go back to 5-10 PAs a week, and, even assuming no dead cat bounce from Turner (.205 BABIP, underperforming his xwOBA by 60 points), the difference between a .270 OBP guy and a .330 OBP guy just isn't that substantial and if offset by taking 30 PAs a week away from a developing prospect.
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Caissie is striking out 35% of the time while hitting .220 and Alcantara has been a below average AAA hitter this year (along with his own +30% K rate). It's fine, they're both 22 and we can afford to give them the time to figure it out. But Ballesteros is definitely the right choice at the moment. I think one way or another one of them gets a starting shot next year. If we're going to commit to PCA and Tucker, there's going to be a bit of a luxury tax crunch in 2026 (in addition to PTR doing PTR things), and Suzuki and Happ are both going to be attractive trade options with 1 year and $20ish m left on their deals. If this all falls apart and we end up in some sort of weird rebuilding phase, then Happ and Suzuki are both better off traded for prospects.
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Bellozo has combined a 18% GB rate and a 3.2% HR/FB rate into a reasonable 3.50 ERA this year but he has 14 Ks and 10 BBs in 18 innings and no one who has pitched more than 50 innings in the last 15 years has had such a low HR/FB rate and so he is bad and we should take walks and hit dongs and not have to rely on whether we're getting good Brown.
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Moisés Ballesteros is Being Called Up; Ian Happ to IL
squally1313 replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
If it was a reasonable suggestion, they would have tried it by now. We've had negative production from third base since we traded for him and he's played 1/3rd of an inning there. We spent $6m on a hitter who can only play first base, sent our opening day third baseman back to Iowa, and opted for Nicky Lopez rather than moving Busch to third and trying any combination of Turner, Moises, Long. And that's before considering that Moises Ballesteros, all 5'8" of him, has played first base one single time this year. He got called up to AAA last year on 6/15, played first base once in each of the first two series, and then just...didn't, the rest of the year, not once. Probably no reason! -
Moisés Ballesteros is Being Called Up; Ian Happ to IL
squally1313 replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
The Marlins and White Sox don't have a single LHP in their current rotations may be a small part of it. Also think it may be a situation where Turner certainly hasn't earned a daily starting spot, but they also think that for a role that requires maybe 5 PAs a week, the difference between Justin Turner, formerly-very-good-hitter-but-now-maybe-washed-hitter, and one of Ballesteros/Long/Caissie/Alcantara isn't significant enough to take those guys out of their development plans, of which getting four PAs daily is a key part of it. And that's before whatever soft skills Turner may or may not be providing in the clubhouse. -
I appreciate the point that the globetrotters is essentially a choreographed dance/play involving basketball vs the bananas seemingly switching back and forth between choreographed dance and essentially normal baseball, which is all they’re really limited to doing given the inherent complexities of pitching and hitting. And I get the timing of the article given that this was focused on the premiere of the games being covered on ESPN, and not on the years prior of them doing this across the country, and this was more of a ‘should people watch this on TV’ than ‘is this Good, generally’. But also agree with the above that if people enjoy seeing it in person, good for them.
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Moisés Ballesteros is Being Called Up; Ian Happ to IL
squally1313 replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
But what if you move Busch to second and Hoerner to short and Dansby to third and Happ also to the infield to help with them all playing out of position and let PCA cover left and center at the same time what could possibly go wrong -
Moises coming up tomorrow. Happ with an IL stint.
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Does he come with a guarantee that he's going to keep his .197 BABIP?
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Marlins are pretty comfortably the worst pitching team in baseball so far this year, so hopefully between that and some warm Wrigley evenings we get guys like Tucker and Hoerner back to where they should be. Conversely, they've got a couple bats that are seemingly kinda legit (Dane Myers .377 wOBA/.396 xwOBA, Kyle Stowers .373 wOBA/.385 xwOBA) and you know Mervis is going to go like 3/14 with 8 Ks and 2 home runs. So if Colin Rea can go back to forgetting he's Colin Rea and we can get Good Ben Brown, that would be nice.
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Fangraphs, not BR, but Gomez was 7th in baseball in defensive value, 3rd among non-catchers (Machado and Andrelton Simmons), so probably similar value between that and PCA as the best defensive outfielder.
