squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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I don't know. It's just still overtly negative to me. Like, the Dodgers are 13-16 since July 1. Mets are 15-14 in that stretch, 27-29 since June 1. Are they out too? The Tigers (13-17 since July 1), Yankees (12-18), and Astros (14-16) too? Or do we then have to bring in subjective judgements on why we're uniquely poorly positioned? Because the advanced statistics still really like our offense. Edit: Like if you think those teams are better suited, you're basically saying that the teams that performed as well or worse than us for the first 60 games, and then as poorly or worse than us the next 40 games are somehow better than us going forward. Which takes me back to the 'overtly negative' point. I just think your argument leaves you with like, three teams that you think have any real shot to win the World Series, which is a pretty foolish spot to be in in early August.
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Two things Playing at an 85 win pace from June 22nd through the rest of the year gets us to 91 wins. Smarter people have done the research on how exceedingly rare it is to miss the playoffs with 90+ wins, so the issue of just missing out on the playoffs shouldn't apply with the current facts. At that hypothetical point, are we an 91 win team or an 85 win team? 2024 Cubs played August and September at a 98 win pace but no one would call them a 98 win team because that wasn't their record. I think we're underperforming. Suzuki and Tucker are simply better players than what they've shown during this stretch, and I can't point to anyone playing out of their mind besides maybe Nico as negative regressors that will offset Suzuki/Tucker returning to form. The pitching is bad, yes, but the pitching has always been bad. The starting pitching isn't much changed from where it was post-Steele injury. Bullpen was 12th in the majors through May, 26th in the majors since then. Somewhere in the middle of that seems about right going forward.
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If the Cubs bad stretch is playing at an 85 win pace after playing at a 95 win pace leading up to that....that's a pretty good team?
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depends on your definition of 'fine' I guess. 95.9% to make the playoffs is still better than we were at any point in 2023 or 2024. I know the vibes are rancid, they've been brutal watches (though Sunday ended up fun), but pretty much every good team in baseball besides the Brewers has (usually recently) gone through a stretch like this (or worse). And yes, they will, at some point, hopefully in the next few weeks, lose again.
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The Cubs are 19-17 since June 21st and have the 6th best offense in baseball (4th if you include defense) over that stretch.
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you guys both thought the phrase was 'blimp in the radar'?
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what are we doing here, conceptually
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Yankees fans can join us in misery on this one, but at least their blow up was a little bit surprising.
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man
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Two true outcome guy lately
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Bullpen loves walking the first guy they see recently.
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Very impressive stuff from Shota, and all the Ks are very encouraging. The advanced stats didn't love, probably still don't see him as an ace, but my meatball-y take is that he's got an extra gear and he'd find an extra level in a playoff start.
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I didn't really think about how the Astros traded for Correa to fill third base instead of trying Smith there, but....a little weird right? His offensive path to being a successful player gets a lot harder when putting up negative defense in the corner outfield.
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I don't think so. If they would have traded away someone like Brown or Horton or whatever, you could talk me into them maybe rethinking it with the knowledge that the rest of the offense would step up and they could hold onto the pitching. But this was offense for offense, I think they wanted the game changing bat over another 3ish fWAR guy.
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Yeah it's probably not a perfect analogy, but I remember Rory's press conference after he won the Masters. He had a one shot lead going into 18 and missed a 6 foot par putt to bogey and end up in the playoffs. Had all the weight on his shoulders with blowing the lead and all the history, said his caddy pulled him aside and was like 'well, we would have taken this position at the start of the week'. Went in and birdied the first playoff hole (the same hole he just bogeyed) to win. Has it been fun lately? No, beyond just that it's fun to care about late season baseball and it certainly beats the alternative of running out the strong. But it's a good team, and none of these other NL teams on paper look anywhere close to unbeatable. Go get it.
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I feel like the 2023-2024 teams set out to be solid up and down the line up without a real weak spot, and when things were going good in April/May this year it felt like we finally achieved that while also simultaneously adding the elite top end production (Tucker, PCA levelling up). The last month or so has been a good reminder of what it used to be, but there's just too much history of performance for guys like Suzuki and Tucker for me to be too worried.
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There's no team wide statistic that says the offense is struggling over a prolonged stretch though. Like, there just isn't. Maybe it has something to do with the league-wide batting average in 2016 being 9 points higher, and the OPS being 21 points higher? Mediocre baseball is better than bad baseball, especially when coupled with the prior run of really good baseball.
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Peaked at 71.8% on May 10th last year. A year ago today we were at 5.3% To Andy's point, on September 6, 2023 we were at 92.4% before going going 7-15 the rest of the year. As rough as it seems right now, we've played nowhere near that bad.
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The Cubs lost playoff series 41 and 22 years ago, and as such you should remain eternally mopey and pessimistic. No other team loses playoff series.
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I mean my god
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lol I don't know if it's good that I would put 'can beat out shittily hit GBs' as one of Dansby's current top skills, but it sure is appreciated. lol nevermind christ
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Tucker has like a 900 OPS in his last 10 games.
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horsefeathers is the game already over?
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Ben Brown, welcome to the game 3 starter role. Yeah, the bar is pretty low.
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eight dimensional chess from Jed to trade for injured goods to force the Ben Brown renaissance
