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squally1313

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Everything posted by squally1313

  1. squally1313
    Would making one trade that included Archer and Colome count as one move? i guess it comes down to that either A.) wasn't an option or B.) the front office determined those two werent worth the asking price. im ok with either Yeah, at the end of the day, Theo is incredibly good at his job, and that's basically the trump card in any argument on this. But I think everyone here realizes the answer to Tim's original question is that it doesn't move the needle much at all, nor would any realistic trade, for this year's World Series. And assuming this trade doesn't come with an extension, there's no way it makes us better from 2017 on, so it just strikes me as contradictory to Theo's stated goal of 'making the playoffs as many times as possible'. Obviously he thought the slight uptick this year was worth any potential sacrifice down the road. We'll see how it goes. And, as others have said, this is before all the personal horsefeathers.
  2. squally1313
    This is an incredibly weird post. well he's an incredibly weird person Since Tim isn't going to give us the downvote feature everyone wants, I think in the offseason we should have a contest for worst post of the year/all-time.
  3. squally1313
    This is an incredibly weird post.
  4. squally1313
    Yep. Assuming the trade happens, the baseball side of me really wants the extension, and the rest of me really doesn't. Not exactly an ideal situation.
  5. squally1313
    Yeah, that list loses a bit of credibility when you realize that the pitcher we're acquiring supposedly isn't as good as Sam Dyson and his 6.75 K/9 this year. Not to mention 36 year old Brad Ziegler who was just acquired for 2 low level minor leaguers no one has ever heard of before. Do you pick apart WAR and UZR this way? These types of stats are obviously not perfect. That doesn't mean they aren't generally good at what they're intended to do. Yeah, and I agree it shows his value, but it also shows the relatively small difference between a good reliever (ie Mike Montgomery), and an elite reliever. Edit: The number 1 Cubs reliever on that list is Travis Wood, so sorry, but I think I'll look at other metrics going forward.
  6. squally1313
    I totally understand that Chapman is really good at what he does. But I don't think I'd call 25 innings of work 'elite play'. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=30&type=3&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Yeah, that list loses a bit of credibility when you realize that the pitcher we're acquiring supposedly isn't as good as Sam Dyson and his 6.75 K/9 this year. Not to mention 36 year old Brad Ziegler who was just acquired for 2 low level minor leaguers no one has ever heard of before.
  7. squally1313
    I said if he became that, it'd be worthy of a parade. Meaning I think it's very unlikely he becomes that. also being a barely above average regular for 2 seasons isn't that valuable. these WAR type valuations aren't perfect. it's not htat hard to come by that type of player for a franchise who can develop (and spend) the way we can. elite play takes massive precedence. I totally understand that Chapman is really good at what he does. But I don't think I'd call 25 innings of work 'elite play'.
  8. squally1313
    But don't just look at the Mets series. Look at the Cardinals series...would Chapman have done anything to make us better in that one? The odds of this coming to down to us needing Chapman to give us something that Montgomery wouldn't have are so slim that this makes no sense without an extension. I basically just steal most of my arguments from Duke these days, but his response to Cameron's Schwarber/Miller article still holds true: "We really don't upgrade our playoff chances by adding Miller. What's it go up from 98.0% to 98.2%? So now we are looking at adding him for maybe, just maybe, the chance of having him pitch in what maybe, just maybe, a close game in what maybe, just maybe, a tight series. And maybe, just maybe, he doesn't give up a run in that game that Mike Montgomery or whoever else ultimately does give up a run. Or, you know, Andrew Miller might suck in the playoffs. Or get hurt before them or whatever. Adding a guy doesn't guarantee anything. We are just hoping he comes up big in a spot or two, where any of our other options might fail. Or it could go like last year, where we beat the dog piss out of our first opponent and then get pummeled by our second opponent."
  9. squally1313
    Mckinney doesn't turn 22 for another month and has shown success (last year) at AA. Warren is 35 major league innings removed from a 2 WAR season with 2 more years of team control. It's not Jimenez, but it's nothing considering 48 hours ago most people didn't want to trade Torres for Chapman straight up. If McKinney turned out to be Matt Murton, it'd be worthy of a parade. Warren has been a disaster. Recency matters a lot. Well Matt Murton gave us 5.2 WAR in his (roughly) two seasons of at bats here at the league minimum, so if Mckinney got anywhere close to that, it's probably not a good idea to trade him for about 30 innings of relief pitching.
  10. squally1313
    I would hope that Joe is smart enough to not just use him as a 9th inning guy. If Bryce Harper is up with 2 on in the 7th inning trailing by a run in a playoff game, I don't want Travis Wood or Montgomery pitching to him there. I want the guy that has a career .397 OPS against vs. lefties to be pitching there. Use Chapman as the closer a majority of the time, but if you have to use him earlier, Rondon steps in to close. What do you think the odds are of that exact situation happening?
  11. squally1313
    Unfortunately, I feel like that's what was being said for the 2nd (and 3rd) piece. And they're Warren and McKinney...so pretty much true? Mckinney doesn't turn 22 for another month and has shown success (last year) at AA. Warren is 35 major league innings removed from a 2 WAR season with 2 more years of team control. It's not Jimenez, but it's nothing considering 48 hours ago most people didn't want to trade Torres for Chapman straight up.
  12. squally1313
    Well, yeah, on that end of it, if McKinney is the 3rd piece (not that we know that to be true) then you can be pretty safe in feeling the 4th is a complete nothing. Unfortunately, I feel like that's what was being said for the 2nd (and 3rd) piece.
  13. squally1313
    I'm not sure that's all that terrible from a baseball perspective. Agreed. A 19 year old that is locked out of every position, and a relief pitcher that nibbles. Warren sucks. As long as the other two are throw ins, this still is a big move. Our 7th, 8th and 9th would be lights out. That isn't the point. Depending on what publication you read, Torres is somewhere in the top 50 for prospects. That has value that can be exchanged for upgrades elsewhere. If you trust Theo, then it appears that this is the most value you could get for him...2 months of a dominant reliever. I think we were all hoping he could get a little more value when trading him. And it's pretty shady to be like, 'if we trade for Chapman, our 7th, 8th, and 9th would be lights out', like that's a direct result of the trade. Unless you want Chapman out there for 50 pitches a night, 2/3rds of what you're saying already wears a Cubs uniform, and we just traded for 75% of Chapman already.
  14. squally1313
    It makes more baseball sense, but man watching that horsefeathers for 4 years would be a little tough. I wasn't even that excited about the 2 months.
  15. squally1313
    Will Smith's stat line suddenly looks a lot less impressive. Buy low
  16. squally1313
    Do you have to watch more porn now?
  17. squally1313
    Fangraphs has us at about 94% to win the division, so I guess it depends on your definition of a 'lock'
  18. squally1313
    I think your definition of "exactly" is somewhat off. He got a ground ball hit directly to one of our infielders. That's why he was there. Some combination of Bryant breaking in on that ball and just really terrible luck. Plenty of time left.
  19. squally1313
    Also, Richard did exactly he was supposed to do.
  20. squally1313
    There wasn't that great of video, but that seems like it was played less than ideally by Kris.
  21. squally1313
    The 1998 Yankees won 114 games for .704 winning percentage. The Cubs aren't winning 114 games (call me crazy, but I think they lose more than 11 games the rest of the year), so that's not us. And it officially just hit me how far we've fallen. Yep. On the bright side, pythag wise we're only on pace to end up about 50 runs short of that team, which is pretty good. For as 'bleak' as things have been over the last month or so, we have the best record in baseball and are underperforming our pythag by 7 games. I hate the phrase because I hear it way too often around my white bread office, but....first world problems.
  22. squally1313
    Lets say you wanted to be extremely generous and say the Cubs had a 66% chance against each opponent in each playoff series. That's pretty absurd, but lets say they were just that good. That works out to a ~28% chance of winning the World Series over the course of 3 playoff series. I don't think any team vs. another team in a short series has that high of an edge, especially against playoff teams. I don't know - '98 yankees? '84 Tigers? The 1998 Yankees won 114 games for .704 winning percentage. The Cubs aren't winning 114 games (call me crazy, but I think they lose more than 11 games the rest of the year), so that's not us. The 84 Tigers only won 65% of their games the entire year against the entire league, so I think it's safe to say that they don't have a 66% chance of winning against another playoff team. Look, I get that it's a bit discouraging that we invest all this time to come down to what is essentially coin flips and sequencing luck. But...it is what it is. Theo knows what he's doing. Make the playoffs every year, and we'll break through.
  23. squally1313
    I don't think that is fact. To a degree worth arguing about? So what do you think the best team in baseball's (or the best roster you can reasonably construct, however you want to look at it) odds of winning are going into October? Assume HFA, as any best team in baseball would typically have. Just backing up David's point here. http://www.thegoodphight.com/2011/7/26/2293738/team-with-best-record-seldom-wins-world-series It's a 2011 article, but long story short, since they went to an 8 team playoff (and since we aren't going to be playing in the wildcard, it's essentially an 8 team playoff), the best record in baseball has won the World Series 19% of the time through 2010. Since then... Year, Best Record, World Series Winner 2011, Phillies, Cardinals 2012, Nationals, Giants 2013, Cardinals/Red Sox, Red Sox 2014, Angels, Giants 2015, Cardinals, Royals So 1/5 or exactly the odds of what had happened before. The Cubs could add Miller, Chapman, Fernandez, and Chris Sale and probably not win the World Series this year. Make the playoffs every year for the next 8, odds will hopefully fall in our favor eventually. Schwarber does more for that than Andrew Miller's 60 innings. And no, I'm not in the least bit worried about 'finding him at bats'.
  24. squally1313
    The main appeal of Miller to me isn't the 5 or 6 innings he'd be a slight upgrade over Montgomery in the playoffs, but the next two years of reliable relief pitching he'd be able to give us. That's why I'd consider someone like Eloy. Not someone who has made it here and shown he can dong with the best of them. Chapman, all things considered is worthless and should die in a fire soon.
  25. squally1313
    I'm generally more in the TT camp of not wanting marginal upgrades, but...that would give us a pretty intriguing Reddick/Baez platoon.
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