squally1313

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2018%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfInfield=&team=CHC&position=&hfOutfield=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&hfPull=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=100&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=wobadiff&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_pas=0#results Too lazy to tinyurl it, but...Rizzo "should be" at about his career norms (which would be a clear step down from his last few years) at .364 wOBA. Bryant has been pretty neutral, in terms of luck, but we know the talent is there. Also, might want to ignore Almora in that list, unless you're Maddon, in which case, please stop hitting him at the top of the order against righties.

Chatwood up, Maples down. Not sure how or when he slots into the rotation.

It's about to be July, and in the next few days Javy should become the most valuable player on the team per fWAR, unless Willson goes on a tear that eclipses Javy's. The inmates are running the asylum.

With the flexibility of every other player on this roster, there is absolutely no reason lastella should be here over caratini right now.

Oh wait you’re telling me having an ERA 2.5 runs below your FIP wasn’t going to last? We need a new lefty

This horsefeathering bullpen is like playing some old baseball video game and realizing middle relievers had the same value as shortstops, trading all your relievers for studs, then just signing the create a players named after the game developers. “If this was a one run game, this is probably where you’d see Randy Rosario” Wonderful

We've got 7 hitters between 37-66 in offensive fWAR, and that's before Rizzo. May not be sexy just yet, but that's a lineup without any holes in it.

Rizzo gets a day off...before facing Kershaw tomorrow? Not that it matters, either Baez is going to win this singlehandedly or we'll lose 5-1. So we'll be fine.

There's enough permutations of those four in terms of performance where I'm not concerned about their skill level. Lester having one more vintage year, Darvish/Quintana pitching like they've basically always pitched,Hendricks going back to what he's done the last couple years...any of those are enough to be the nominal ace of a postseason team. At least for this year. Health is the concern for me. Monty has had a great run, but he's just not the pitcher that those other four are, and he takes the one lefthanded pitcher from the bullpen that I would trust going into the playoffs. Q and Hendricks have never really had health issues, but they're still pitchers. Darvish obviously is a huge question mark, and we've pushed Lester a lot more than I've liked so far this year, mostly because he's been pitching after Chatwood and the bullpen is always gassed. I'm hoping we go on a run here soon so that any acquisition we make it geared more towards soaking up innings than going out and getting someone good enough to start/get high leverage spots in October.

For what it's worth, I share your concerns about the starting pitching. Outside whatever Drew Smyly may be, we've more or less locked ourselves in to these 5 starters who are either at the peak of their age curve or clearly on the wrong side of it for the next three years. Yeah, we can live with burying a Chatwood contract if the other four aren't enough to rely on to win a playoff series (and hopefully they figure that out in the next month or so), but that's going to cost either money, which we have but theoretically have earmarked elsewhere), prospects, which we don't have, or young major league talent, which we'd want to hold onto. In terms of lopsided, hot/cold, etc...league wide, it's pretty clear it's becoming more of a boom/bust offensive approach. Hits are down, HRs are up (over 1100 more in 2017 than 2015). Whether that's led to a league wide deterioration in situational hitting skills, or if it's just that even when a single would do they're still going for dongs (hi Javy)...maybe a little of both. But it's going to lead to more big innings/games, and more stretches of ineptitude. This is no less meatball-y/generalized than any of your arguments, but just as they've established a track record of lack of clutch hitting, cold streaks, etc...they've also established a pretty clear trend of playing (or at least hitting) better in the second half. 2015: 1st half 88 wRC (24th), 2nd half 105 wRC (8th) 2016: 1st half 108 wRC (5th), 2nd half 101 wRC (7th) 2017: 1st half 93 wRC (14th), 2nd half 110 wRC (4th) 2018: 1st half 102 wRC (10th) My worry is that the pitching collapses right as the offense starts to click. We're doing the BABIP thing again, which should hopefully offset the fact that we're 3rd in ERA but 17th in FIP (and 22nd in xFIP). It's the same problem that became very glaring in the bullpen last October: we can't throw strikes. Only now we have that problem in the rotation too. We can assume/hope Chatwood gets Hammel'd come October, but Quintana is up over 4 walks per 9, Hendricks is at a career high in walk rate, and Lester's regression issues have been well documented. On top of that, our bullpen gets very thin if just one of Edwards, Strop, Cishek, and Morrow aren't healthy.

I don’t understand why these losers can’t find a way to get a simple single with the bases loaded. How hard can it be.

good thing we played so much better than that really good team for so long this year.

This is almost definitely a ‘in reality every team does this’ but it seems like we have at least one bench guy/bullpen arm active but unavailable pretty much every game.

I don’t know who this dodgers pitcher is but I assumed it would be someone a lot better so this seems like an opportune time to put a ball, or even multiple balls over the fence.

Strikeout and a walk to start the game. You’ll fit right in Jay Jackson 2.0.

Can they be better than the last four games? Obviously, that's every team in baseball history. Should they be better than how they've played this year as a whole? Ummm..maybe a little? 5 more wins is 47-28, which is a 101 win pace. Are they capable of playing that baseball for stretches of the year? Sure, see the second half of 2015, all of 2016, and the second half of 2017. Are they one of the 30 best teams in baseball history? Probably not, statistically. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=11,d We've been the least clutch offensive team in baseball so far this year (9th most clutch for pitching, if anyone cares). According to pretty much everyone, that's not a real thing. Frustrating? Yes. Concerning? No.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0 Third in offensive fWAR this year. Fifth last year. You're way better than most of the doomboners that show up in the game threads, but this is getting pretty close to 'maybe baseball isn't the sport for you'. Again, "THEY SHOULD BE BETTER" IS NOT "THESE GUYS SUCK." The pearl-clutching that gets unleashed over the pearl-clutching every time this team goes through a prolonged period of suck ass offense (which is a lot) is just a human centipede of wankery. They're on pace to win 90 games. If they were hitting like the Astros or Yankees, they'd probably be on pace to win 100+. If that's your baseline for regular season success, go for it...there have been 126 seasons in history, and 102 100+ win seasons.

To be fair, that includes the defensive aspect of fWAR, in which we are essentially blowing everyone out of the water (that's a good thing!). Including just hitting/baserunning (part of offense), we're 8th this year. Considering that outside of Heyward/Almora, pretty much everyone is hitting at or below their career norms/expectations, and we're still on pace to win 90 games, sorry...not going to get too concerned.

As it has been made abundantly clear time and time again, it's a matter of people wanting the Cubs to be better and thinking they should be better. Almost nobody thinks they actually suck, but the flipside of that is that almost nobody, even with baseball being baseball, has gone into the last two seasons thinking we'd see a team this talent (with basically the same roster) struggle for so long to figure out its horsefeathering offense for way too much of the season. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0 Third in offensive fWAR this year. Fifth last year. You're way better than most of the doomboners that show up in the game threads, but this is getting pretty close to 'maybe baseball isn't the sport for you'.

I can't really imagine being a Cubs fan for 20+ years, getting to experience the last few years, and having it seriously bother you that we might only be the second best franchise in terms of current and future success.

Yeah, he's needed a few too many 'mental reset days'. Seal Heyward Zob Rizz Willson Schwarber Addy Happ Farrell Somewhat interesting that that 1-8 in reverse order would probably have been seen as a reasonable early-April lineup.

KB, JHey, Javy, Rizzo, Addy, Dong Kyle, Willson, Ian, Pitching Kyle

That IBB is just begging for Javy and KB to pull off some amazing double steal trick play.

This is where it’s such a big advantage that we’re able to turn to Montgomery to give us 3-5 innings