squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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It'd be nice if we could either get really hot in next few weeks to give us a cushion to fake 10 day DL a few of these guys, or else hopefully just have this locked up by the middle of September so we can do the same thing. Outside of Schwarber in 2016, I feel like this year has been much worse in terms of injuries. Getting older sucks.
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https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-thoroughly-average-exploits-of-bryce-harper/ What does 2 months of 2018 Bryce Harper get on the open market next week? Is there any chance they'd consider trading him?
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Yeah, Almora needs to run a crazy high BABIP to be more than a replacement level player and he doesn’t do a whole lot of things well. If we could find a team who just saw his shiny BA and and Edmonds catches and loved him I’d be all for trading him. I think this year is about his peak and what he does is very easily replaceable. He's got value on the current version of this team because even if you regress his numbers against lefties, they're still really good (especially compared to say, Schwarber's .668 OPS against lefties this year). If we go the Harper route next year, then yeah, he should be the odd man out. Almora is too valuable for any of the relievers on the market, but probably not enough to headline a package that gets us a frontline starter. I'm fine with him being the small side of a platoon and a Schwarber defensive replacement for the rest of the year.
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In July: Albert Almora: .265/.308/.306, .342 BABIP, 5.8 BB% 21.2 K% Ian Happ: .298/.431/.553, .379 BABIP, 19 BB%, 25.9 K%
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As expected, night off for Rizzo. Cubs fans get the corner infield they've been dreaming about for years...Bote/Caratini.
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It feels weird getting out-defensed.
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Steve you can stay.
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No, the other way.
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I'm not intensely watching, but it seems like he's done a lot of pitching backwards today...using the curve/change to get strike one, which is setting everything else up. Get this guy and then win it in the ninth. Stropy can finish it off.
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I mean, I guess given the start time 1-1 is better than like...8-8. But...come on guys.
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Watching good Kyle is so much fun. I still go back and watch 2016 NLCS game 6 highlights every few weeks.
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Incredibly bizarre to see Rizzo biff two fairly straightforward throws in one inning. As for Javy, not trying to absolve him, but weird situation where there's a ton more room down the lines in SF than in most other stadiums (owing to the bullpens). In 90% of the stadiums, there's zero chance of someone even considering scoring from first on that play.
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You flip a coin 30 times, and it comes up heads 20 times and tails 10 times. For the next flip, someone offers you -150 for heads. Do you take it? Again, false equivalency. Coins and cards are not people with variable emotions and the like, especially on a day to day and week to week basis. If you're talking about a full season of blindly putting the guy in the leadoff spot, sure, I'll concede that point. Maybe I’m way too Baseball Managering this, but I’d much rather have Maddon (and Theo) looking at these decisions in a weighted coin flip type of way than ‘emotion and the like’. We have probably five better hitters against righties than him in the lineup today, and they’re all going to get less at bats than he is.
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UZR is the outlier, DRS & statcast rate him as great this year which matches the eye test UZR is too black box for me to opine real well why he's just +1 in their system but the others paint the picture he's been decent on balls in his zone and has made quite a bit more plays in the gaps than the average CF, so i'm not sure that his top-end speed holds him back or is lacking; if anything he's not super quick or bursty i feel confident stating he's a very good fielder though Yeah, I probably settle on above average. It's a combination of his skill set (namely route running and recognizing the path of the ball off the bat) and the Cubs ability to get the most out of their defense (see Dexter Fowler's defensive number here vs everywhere else). I just think there's a little bit of a Jim Edmonds effect going on. Happ was a bad example, but I see some of those running/sliding catches and while they get the job done, you look at the top 4 defensive CFers on Fangraphs (Cain, Leonys Martin, Delino DeShields, Billy Hamilton) and probably conclude those catches would look a little easier for them.
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Because no one in their right minds would take anything less than even odds, because they know that the past results aren't likely to continue in the same manner. Almora is leading the majors in BABIP against all pitchers, and against RHPs. He's not fast, and he doesn't have a batted ball profile that would lend himself to having a high BABIP, much less the highest in baseball. He's 138th in hard hit % against RHP, 65th in line drive %. Everything about that screams that so far this year, his groundballs (39th in groundball %) have managed to find holes. Unless you think Almora, contrary to almost every other hitter in history, has learned how to place his groundballs (and just learned that skill this year), this is a long way of saying he, with a high degree of certainty, will not continue to have the results he's had so far. We have really good hitters who hit RHPs (especially shitty RHPs) really well. They should be getting more PAs than Almora.
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You know when I play blackjack and double down and win I just keep doubling down every hand after until I bust Oooh, false equivalencies. I like those! You flip a coin 30 times, and it comes up heads 20 times and tails 10 times. For the next flip, someone offers you -150 for heads. Do you take it?
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http://gifimage.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/confusion-gif-19.gif https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=20,d It all comes down to his routes/recognition vs his very real lack of speed. His arm is fine, nothing special. He makes a lot of catches that show up on the highlight reel, but it's very possible that someone like Heyward (or even Happ) makes those catches look a little bit easier.
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But you're beholden to your past performance against righties? Yes? He's gone from being borderline unplayable against RHPs (711 OPS in 2017) to being someone you can feel comfortable starting out there, which is good. He's still a negative baserunner, and his defensive value is up for debate, but with Zobrist having to play more infield with KB out, there's plenty of ABs for Almora amongst the four outfielders. But we have better hitters, including LHBs, against a pitcher who is significantly worse against LHBs. It's one of those things that almost definitely won't have an impact on the result today, but causes concern as to the thought process going forward.
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Still no KB activation, so that might be a Thing to worry about. However,
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But that's now how regression works. Every piece of evidence shows he's going to start performing worse against RHPs. You don't get to carry over your past unsustainable BABIP. Zobrist has a 302/412/463 slash against RHPs with a 323 BABIP Schwarbar is 249/371/553 with a 260 BABIP Tyler Mahle has a wOBA allowed of 407 to LHB, 266 to RHB. I get that lineup order ultimately doesn't matter, but there's really no way to justify this.
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Why? Until his BABIP regresses to the mean, keep him out there. ...what?
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Stop having Almora lead off against righties.
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unless hickey can add 6-7 mph to that fastball, this is gonna be a thing 2016 fastball: 87.8 MPH 2018 fastball: 86.8 MPH
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Almora Heyward Zobrist Rizz Baez Schwarber Contreras Russell Hendricls This lineup is going to be outrageous once we get a healthy KB back.