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squally1313

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Everything posted by squally1313

  1. squally1313
    There's no reason extending Baez needs to be linked to extending Bryant. Ideally you sign them both to long term contracts, but since Baez is much more likely to sign an extension than Bryant, you extend him when you can. Unless you're in the camp that extending Baez is a bad decision, there's no reason to wait for Bryant to sign an extension first. Agreed. Of course there's a number that makes sense for Baez, I just don't know if 'fresh off his probably fluky best season ever' is the time to start those discussions.
  2. squally1313
    Look, I love Javy as much as anyone, but he finished 16th in baseball in BABIP last year, and 8th in HR/FB%. He was 53rd in line drive percentage, and he was 92nd in hard hit percentage. The last two aren't the flukes.
  3. squally1313
    KB and Baez were the two fastest runners on the team (Baez by 0.8 feet per second, 28.8 to 28, though somehow Statcast has Almora right behind Bryant, so maybe this metric doesn't mean anything). Let's just say they are both very good, if not elite baserunnners, and give Baez the nod for his willingness to steal bases. Bryant is a better hitter than Baez, full stop. In Baez's MVP candidate season, where Bryant had a bum shoulder for around half of his PAs, Baez had a 131 wRC to Bryant's 125. Baez had never been above average in this category until this year. This was Bryant's worst by 11 points. Baez gets the nod in defense, mostly because he plays the premium position...advanced metrics have weirdly never liked him as much as your top flight, or even average shortstops. Maybe that doesn't account for the tagging skills, however you want to quantify that. Of those three, I'm taking hitting, and I think it's the area where they are farthest apart. Then again, both of them should just make all the money and PTR should have to go live on the streets.
  4. squally1313
    Might as well knock out 20 in a row before Russell gets back and watching this team gets even more frustrating than it already will be.
  5. squally1313
    Yeah not really a deal we had to do and he probably doesn’t get much more in FA. But whatever, it’s not that much money that should handcuff us. I think he’ll age fairly well barring an injury. Until proven otherwise, any dollar that comes out of the Ricketts' pockets and goes to one of the increasingly few good guys on this team is not an issue for me in the slightest. When someone can prove that this deal 'costs the Cubs' a good player down the road, sure, whatever. Until then, give everyone from the 2016 team (minus like 4 very important exceptions) whatever they want.
  6. squally1313
    From what I can tell, top 3 finish in 2020 Cy Young guarantees the 2024 option. If he doesn't finish top 3, it becomes a team option. Given that he's about the least flashy pitcher in baseball (like when he put up a 2.13 ERA and still finished behind Lester), I think it's pretty safe it'll just be a team option.
  7. squally1313
    If Contreras' agent had advised him to sign any extension with his value at its low point since arriving in MLB, I would hope he would be fired for malpractice. That assumes that you're trying to extend Contreras as if he's last year's player forever. Sure you might discount some on his 2017 performance, but Willson hasn't made life changing money in MLB yet so there's some benefit to locking in on his end too. Yep. Contreras is going to hit FA as a 30 year old catcher with 800 games under his belt. He won't be done, but he's not getting a long term deal. Meanwhile, if he comes out and repeats the second half of 2018, he might be out of baseball with what...$1.5m made in his career? You don't think he'd consider something like $50m or $60m for 6 years (using Bregman's deal as a starting point)?
  8. squally1313
    I've got a friend of a friend working for Boras, and that's where I heard it from. Mostly Mrs Bryant, but it sounds like she kinda runs the show behind the scenes. Does "not happy" mean they're pissed he's still around, or pissed that he's not getting even more support? The first one. Think Mrs Bryant and Melisa Reidy were/are very close.
  9. squally1313
    where is this from? I remember hearing or reading that too, forget where now. But him and as wife were not happy about it and how it was handled and that he was kept, allegedly. I've got a friend of a friend working for Boras, and that's where I heard it from. Mostly Mrs Bryant, but it sounds like she kinda runs the show behind the scenes.
  10. squally1313
    I don't really remember hearing anything about it until this offseason, and always kinda thought it was (unfortunately) a response to him being called soft/unfriendly/whatever other bad adjectives the media put on him.
  11. squally1313
    Also, Carl's Jr just got ejected. We're playing the Mariners minor league team. So there's that. (Contreras and KB got hit earlier in the game)
  12. squally1313
    Yeah, going through the list I don't see a lot of options. I think you take a shot at Baez assuming his numbers come back down to earth. It's not really in Rizzo's best interest to extend a few more years...he either needs to sign a 'Cub for Life' deal at a relatively friendly price, or he should hit free agency before he gets too far into his 30s. Still have 4 more years of Contreras, which is about all you want. And then Schwarber/Happ/Almora still need to show more to justify going down that road. Eh, starting next year he has 2 team options for $14.5 million. I could see a 5-6 year deal starting next year for ~$18 AAV (so only 3-4 new years) being in everyone's best interest with a few team/vesting/mutual options tacked on. Yeah that sounds about right. He turns 30 in August...I assume he wants a contract that will get him into his late 30s. It's tough because he already took the 'discount' deal (albeit for very different reasons). This deal will give him $70m assuming we pick up his option. Throw another $60m-80m after that, and while he'll have been very underpaid for his career (has been worth $195m so far according to FG), certainly not a bad career.
  13. squally1313
    Yeah, going through the list I don't see a lot of options. I think you take a shot at Baez assuming his numbers come back down to earth. It's not really in Rizzo's best interest to extend a few more years...he either needs to sign a 'Cub for Life' deal at a relatively friendly price, or he should hit free agency before he gets too far into his 30s. Still have 4 more years of Contreras, which is about all you want. And then Schwarber/Happ/Almora still need to show more to justify going down that road. Maybe Hendricks? Seems like he's going to stay pretty healthy as he gets older...give him a couple months into this season to show he can keep his performance up, and then give him a 5 year deal or so.
  14. squally1313
    I said this with the Harper situation and it applies here, it's become clearer and clearer that a lot of these guys do not like the free agency process. They do not like the constant questions about where they will be going. I see where you're going, and obviously there are two very big data points that show that. I just don't see why it would be so hard to like...be in your opt out year and make a statement on April 1 saying you won't answer any questions about it the whole year, and then come the end of the year tell teams you are going to be signing the best offer (whatever that means for you) by 12/1. I know Harper not wanting opt outs was seen as a sign he hated the free agency process, but he holds a lot of responsibility for the fact that it dragged into March.
  15. squally1313
    A record contract signed 2 years before free agency. 12 guaranteed years. It's not that weird that the team wouldn't want to give an opt out at those levels and there would be little pressure to do so with no other suitors for the next couple years. It's just weird from Trout's side. He was obviously willing to give up a potential bigger pay day in free agency in a couple years by locking in this amount now. How much more money would he have had to give up to throw in a year 4 or 5 opt out? Wouldn't that be worth something to him to hedge against the risk of four more 75 win seasons?
  16. squally1313
    Sounds like none. Good deal for Trout. He probably could have hit $500m if he stayed MIKE TROUT for two more years, but the fact is that's a really long time and when you're as good as he is there's really only downside risk.
  17. squally1313
    Any word on potential opt outs?
  18. squally1313
    13-14 year old me loved this band, to the point where I probably saw them about a dozen times at HOB...this was a couple years before this album came out. Fast forward to last year, my Dad starts a new job at TD Ameritrade (of all places) helping investors with legal questions, and I'm on the phone with him one night last summer he said that weekend he's planning on going to Naperville Fest (or something similar) to see his co-workers band. I looked up the schedule, and yep...Lucky Boys Confusion. Turns out being a lead singer for a crappy pop punk band for 20 years doesn't get you out of having to work a 9-5 for the Ricketts.
  19. squally1313
    "Mercy" "What in the world"
  20. squally1313
    Have there ever been any studies on sidearm pitcher’s health compared to normal pitchers? If it’s better/worse for your shoulder, elbow, etc.
  21. squally1313
    65th in reliever FIP (if he would have qualified), 86th, threw 26 innings total last year, already hurt, 4.73 projected FIP, 91st in reliever FIP (if he would have qualified) I think he’s done more or less of ever being effective in any role. His shoulder is shot. Yeah I'm aware I'm using some moving targets in that 'analysis', but when the second name you list is basically just 2019 Kyle Farnsworth, sorry if I'm not going to be overly impressed.
  22. squally1313
    65th in reliever FIP (if he would have qualified), 86th, threw 26 innings total last year, already hurt, 4.73 projected FIP, 91st in reliever FIP (if he would have qualified)
  23. squally1313
    This is pure laziness in asking this here, but what's the current situation on Morrow?
  24. squally1313
    How does it definitely make the game better though? Because we’ll save maybe 7 min a game on pitching changes (not to say this won’t make games longer since there’s chances for blowups for guys forcing them to face 3 batters and creating long innings)? There’s far more downside than upside, imo. I could be missing something obvious, but why not just eliminate the warm up pitches on the actual mound? Isn't the grounds crew advanced enough at the major league level to make the bullpen mound and the actual mound consistent? The dude has been throwing plenty on the side, typically signaled that he's 'ready', etc. You aren't risking health by eliminating the 8 more pitches you're letting him throw during the commercial. If it reduces effectiveness...who cares. I think that's generally the goal of these rule changes anyways.
  25. squally1313
    I really like giving both leagues the DH for only the starting pitcher. Part of the reason we're getting all these pitching changes is because teams are going into the bullpens earlier and earlier. I understand the reasoning for it and the advantage it gives, but taking away your DH and forcing you to play the pinch hitter game would be a drawback against that tactic.
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