Jump to content
North Side Baseball

squally1313

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    11,309

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    28

 Content Type 

Profiles

Joomla Posts 1

Chicago Cubs Videos

Chicago Cubs Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

2026 Chicago Cubs Top Prospects Ranking

News

2023 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks

Guides & Resources

2024 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks

The Chicago Cubs Players Project

2025 Chicago Cubs Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Chicago Cubs Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses

Blogs

Events

Forums

Store

Gallery

Everything posted by squally1313

  1. squally1313
    The Cardinals, in a much bigger fight to even make the playoffs, secure home field, avoid the Dodgers, etc....lose 12-3 to the Kansas City Royals, and have gone 6-4 in their last 10. The Cubs, having locked up the division with a high degree of mathematical certainty for close to a week now, with no chance of catching the 1 seed and having no difference whatsoever between the 2 and 3 seed that they can control, lose a one run game and have gone 6-4 in their last 10. Everyone here is convinced that either the Cardinals will overtake the Cubs for the division, or that the Cubs will obviously lose in the first round where they have a 75% chance of playing the Giants (who suck, and are 5-5 in their last 10), the Marlins (who suck, and are 4-6 in their last 10, and have lost 4 in a row), or the Cardinals (see above, but to be clear, also suck).
  2. squally1313
    So how was the board when they found out they clinched a playoff spot? Spent a whole page arguing about our backup center fielders 41 PAs with the Cubs.
  3. squally1313
    After reading (and buying into) all the complaints about the Cubs making players play through minor injuries and constantly being nicked up, I'm starting to wonder if this is something all teams go through, but very few people around here follow other teams as closely as they do the Cubs. Like I have no idea if anybody on the Cardinals is battling something minor or not, but watching the games, reading here, following the beat writers makes me very aware of which Cubs are fighting through something. To bring that back to KB, if the minor injuries thing the last few years has been uniquely a Cubs thing, then I'm more high on him because I'm more likely to believe it's just a fluky run of bad luck. But if these minor injuries happen across the whole population (and are more likely to continue), and he's just a player who needs everything to be perfect for his swing to be right....then I'm a lot more worried about his future.
  4. squally1313
    I don't necessarily like reacting too much to these pandemic stats and missed this specific game last night, but what Rizzo PAs I've seen this year have been dishearteningly ugly maybe the worst on the team OTOH non-tendering Bryant is not even an option worth discussing I don't necessarily like reacting too much to these pandemic stats, because of small sample size, so instead let me anecdotally point to the couple dozen or so Rizzo PAs I've seen this year.
  5. squally1313
    bad read by Happ. He should have scored. Baez, Heyward, others score on that. There is zero chance he gets thrown out at third if Lindor gets to that because he has to go so far to his left - runner on second should be able to read that. Nobody out changes that a lot. What’s the probability of scoring 1 run with, essentially, the bases loaded nobody out? Because you need to be more sure than that of A. Not getting thrown out by Lindor, and B. Not getting thrown out at home.
  6. squally1313
    It's deep too, which is important with the no offdays playoffs this year. In that context I'd rather have 6-7 good relievers than 2-3 awesome relievers. And for Game 3 of the Wildcard round I'd lean on the pen. Give Lester (or hopefully Q by then?) three innings and then go with the parade of relievers. I think you build up Q with the intention that he’s going to get, at most, one time through the lineup. As weird as it sounds, Lester and Mills are in a competition for that #3 spot. Might end up being match up based, but they’ve both put up impressive outings lately. Here’s a dumb idea: Darvish goes out and wins game 1...do you save Hendricks and hope you win game 2 without him?
  7. squally1313
    Saw something about Lester being emotional post game because he knew it could be his last start at wrigley, which really dampened my happiness from the win. Hopefully we get a chance to give him the ovation he deserves at some point soon.
  8. squally1313
    The replies to that tweet make it seem like that was a broad interpretation, and the actual tweak is that they aren't allowing counting stats to be considered, because obviously, which actually helps the players.
  9. squally1313
    Hard pass.
  10. squally1313
    This may not be how pitching works, but given Theo's comments about not ruling out Chatwood/Quintana playing limited roles down the stretch, it could be beneficial to see if Lester or Mills can generate a little more success if they're told they're only getting one or two times through the line up. I know it runs counter to trying to save the bullpen where we're at now, but our playoff strategy is basically getting good/long starts from Yu and Kyle, and then patching together the rest of the games, and potentially carrying Q/Chatwood/Adbert means there wouldn't be any need for Lester or Mills to see a lot of hitters.
  11. squally1313
    Not falling for basic math and probability of being in a good spot? Not falling for the cubs seemingly having it in the bag these hypotheticals always make things seem more secure than they are, because ultimately 20 games or whatever is still a tiny sample size for this game. a 3 or 4 game losing streak by the cubs and a 3 or 4 game winning streak by the cardinals blows the whole thing up in half a week. its kind of like the posts about the cubs only needing to go .500 after the 13-3 start to finish 35-25. that seems like no problem because the cubs are at least an average team, but horsefeathers turns around so quickly in this sport. And a 3 game losing streak by the Cubs coinciding with a 3 game win streak by the Cardinals has a roughly 1.5% chance of happening. So, again, basic math and probability has us being in a good spot.
  12. squally1313
    Do we have an official explanation as to where JD is? Twitter search isn’t giving me anything.
  13. squally1313
    David Ross might not be very good at this.
  14. squally1313
    Something like Schwarber leading off the 7th with a walk and getting replaced by Hamilton at first sounds pretty great to me.
  15. squally1313
    We have the best outfield in baseball so far this year, Billy Hamilton wasn't signed to start. He comes in for Schwarber if we ever decide to take an early lead in games again, and he steals bases when you need him to later on. He's terrible at everything else.
  16. squally1313
    i hope they win like 40 games in this fake season so next season kicks them in the dick when it isn't so easy Pretty sure they’re still playing in the AL Central last year.
  17. squally1313
    Team wide we're at a 102 wRC, 3rd best walk rate, 4th worst K rate, 6th in total offensive fWAR, though some of that is helped by baserunning (5th) and defense (9th). Happ and Heyward are over 150 wRC, Rizzo/Schwarber/Kipnis/Bote are between 105 and 121. Contreras/Baez/Bryant/Hoerner have been very bad, Almora historically bad but he's gone so whatever.
  18. squally1313
    Yeah I have to believe this is true. 3-1 in particular, we usually take. But when we swing we hit a ton of lazy pops. Because I'm bored... 2-0 count: 13/31, 3 doubles, 4 HRs, .419/.438/.903, 221 total PAs 2-1 count: 17/51, 5 doubles, 2 HRs, .333/.321/.549, 309 total PAs 3-1 count: 9/32, 2 doubles, 2 HRs, .281/.680/.531, 144 total PAs Don't think there's a way to compare all the teams in these, but picking the Dodgers to compare (Cardinals have too few games, rest of the division sucks at hitting): 2-0 count: 8/38, 1 double, 1 HR, .216/.211/.324, 222 total PAs 2-1 count: 26/74, 6 doubles, 2 triples, 6 HRs, .351/.368/.730, 307 total PAs 3-1 count: 17/63, 4 doubles, 4 HRs, .346/.753/.654, 135 total PAs Based on this very small sample, yeah, take a lot in these counts, and the quality of contact for 2-1 and 3-1 is much worse (2-0 is weirdly much better).
  19. squally1313
    These moves, assuming all the main guys are healthy (and not sub replacement players, looking at you Javy), should give us a lineup that wrecks lefties. You could run out something like this: KB Souza Contreras Martinez Baez Rizzo Happ Bote Hoerner Not going to help you much against, say, Gray/Bauer/Castillo in a three game series. But there's Kershaw/Urias, Fried in Atlanta.
  20. squally1313
    This can be in reference to anything you want, up to and including this entire board since about 4 days after we won the world series.
  21. squally1313
    Kuhl is due for some serious BABIP/LOB/everything regression, hopefully it's tonight. I'd probably still take Hoerner's glove (and development) over Martinez against RHP, but I get you want to try out your new toy.
  22. squally1313
    I'm going to assume you just posted this to the wrong thread, but you thinking they made him go hang out in South Bend until he was healthy is pretty funny.
  23. squally1313
    Will be very interesting to see if baseball follows. Somehow the only quotes I was seeing from the Brewers was from Hader, which....could you not find literally anyone else associated with the team?
  24. squally1313
    Wrigley is basically as close to Kenosha as the Brewers are. Boycott the game, see how the Ricketts react.
  25. squally1313
    He’s really only been a real elite hitter in 2018 until September and then a month or two last year. Saw some tweet the other day about it. He’s been shockingly average from a wRC+ standpoint outside of that period. There's a pretty big gap between elite and what he's doing this year though. How many people, with how flawed he is as a hitter, thought he'd be an elite hitter? We had hope, sure. But 2018 sure seemed like a career year at the time. In 2017, he had 4 of 6 months with a OPS+ of 116 or higher. 2018 he was above 100 each month, and above 140 in 4 of the 6 months. 2019 he was above 100 for 4 of 5 months (4 PA in Sept) and had 3 of 5 over 110. His 83 OPS+ right now would be his worst monthly split since April 2017. We don't necessarily need runner-up MVP Javy (though it certainly would be nice), but we do need a 100-110 OPS+ Javy. Javy provides value in a lot of ways, and I think you're right in that few around here expected him to maintain an elite offensive profile. Doesn't make him a worthless player by any means, but taking him out of the 3 spot in the line up shouldn't be controversial given where he's at right now. And yes, I know he's hit the ball really hard the last couple games. Show it for a week and then you can reevaluate.
×
×
  • Create New...