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squally1313

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Everything posted by squally1313

  1. squally1313
    The NFL Blitz of pitchers.
  2. squally1313
    lolz
  3. squally1313
    They've gotten away from that the last few times through the rotation. I think Contreras catching more than they wanted during the Taylor Davis era and then Caratini hitting well when he came back let them go closer to a 50/50 (or 60/40) split for a few weeks to give Contreras more down time mid season than a straight 80/20 split would. Plus, it's not like we heard of some strong connection between Caratini and Darvish.
  4. squally1313
    There’s no way this is a real guy
  5. squally1313
    Agreed, the offensive numbers would be fine if we were getting Jason Heyward, shut down outfielder. But his FG defensive metrics have taken a nose dive pretty much since he signed with us. 11.3 in his last year with the Cardinals, then 9.6, 2.8, 0.7, and this year at a -3.3. For comparison, Franmil Reyes, who looks to be about 275 pounds, is at a -2.8 playing full time in right field this year.
  6. squally1313
    Surely this cannot be true?!?! One more and he ties his high in a Cubs uniform! (weeps quietly)
  7. squally1313
    I feel like I'm the only one actually looking at Eloy's performances in pro ball right now rather than going with some generalization of. He's been that! At 20-22 the guy put up something like .335/.385/.570 with a 16% K rate and 26 HRs in 551 PAs between AA and AAA. That is incredible hitting! I read this situation as some Cubs fans over correcting for overrating Schwarber as a prospect The rest of the season ZIPs projections have him hitting 15 home runs in 288 PAs, with a .281/.332/.517 slash line. That slugging would be 41st in baseball, 20th in terms of 2018 results. Do you agree with those numbers as a fair assessment for his abilities? Because that plays out, with his defense, as 1 WAR for those 288 PAs, which gives you about 2.5ish WAR over a full season. And that might be aggressive, given his injury history.
  8. squally1313
    And it’s not wrong to think that way, because it’s mostly true and probable Also, have you spent any time reading this board lately? Because if you have, you'll know that we're terrible and a fluke and all our good hitters are due for regression and all our bad hitters just actually suck and this is what they are. Start scouting the 2020 draft.
  9. squally1313
    Who in their right mind would make *that* specific a comp? The comp is way more general - Gonzalez was a big tall COF, top 5 prospect in baseball, and had the high average/meh walks/big power/bad defense thing going on If you would have just said he reminds you of a Juan Gonzalez type player, sure, whatever. But I don't know what that means in the context of 'ceiling' and 'floor'.
  10. squally1313
    I mean, I understand that in hindsight, or probably even at the time, Juan Gonzalez was a very flawed player who accumulated a bunch of counting stats and not much else (and was a particularly terrible MVP selection). But a floor of 35 WAR and 434 home runs is just insane.
  11. squally1313
    Okay Steve Stone Ha. I was in the "he's definitely a 2-3 WAR guy who might get to 4+ in a couple prime years" camp up until he kept tearing it up last year. .337/.384/.577 with a 15(!!!!)% K rate in AA/AAA from a guy with his size and pedigree at age 21 is the good stuff. Now I think that Juan Gonzalez-y kind of player might be more his floor than ceiling LO-the horsefeathers -L
  12. squally1313
    Weird, I have something different from fangraphs: .280 .302 .700 with a .399 wOBA and 148 wrc+ I will absolutely take that. Regardless, him finding some power is a good thing and he has continued to hit the ball hard over that stretch and increased his LD%. A small sample like this is of course not predictive but I don't think anyone is worried about his walk rate over this stretch. Well I think the concern is that you're only going to get one or the other, and if that's the case, I'm not sure this is a better version, unless you think he can continue to put 35% of his fly balls out of the park.
  13. squally1313
    Schwarber has been an absolute beast over the last two weeks. Eh....I'm usually the one defending Schwarber, but a .306 OBP over the past two weeks isn't really the path to long term success, and relatedly neither is his 4.1% walk rate and 24.5% K rate. It'll be interesting to see what his next few weeks look like....anecdotally it seems like he's gone from working deep counts and leaving things up to the umps a lot of the time to just attacking early and often, which has given him that power but obviously cost him walks. If pitchers start to adjust early, is he going to go back to the deep counts, or are we going to see a lot of bad swings early in the count?
  14. squally1313
    Come on, man; how long does one season's worth of a Fangraphs defensive rating get to be the sort of thing you can hang a statement like this on? Whatever you do, don't look at the defensive ratings of DHs that are built into their WAR calculations.
  15. squally1313
    please do not restart this conversation Fair. If he just stated that normally, I'd be more likely to just be like 'well that's wrong, but whatever'. But it's the whole 'as I've said many times' thing that bugs me.
  16. squally1313
    There’s plenty of numbers by him and historical comps to have a pretty good idea what he will be, not certain, but a good estimate. He will more than likely be a productive hitter, I’ve never said he won’t. He just won’t be all that valuable and it’s nonsense how he’s talked about as a future MVP/superstar. He’s probably going to end up being a player with similar value to Schwarbs (they’ll get there differently) as a 2-3 win guy most with maybe a peak year or two over 4 but not much over. And I have pointed out many times that Schwarber would be much more valuable in the AL. I still think it's way too early to guess/estimate what a 22 year old will turn into when he's had less than 200 PA in the ML. What do you mean by "much more valuable" in the AL?
  17. squally1313
    I swear it looks like he took something off that last swing...it was almost Ichiro-esque in putting the ball right where he wanted.
  18. squally1313
    My buddy who played basketball through college said it would have actually gone down as a team technical when I brought up the same (hilarious) point.
  19. squally1313
    I mean, that's fair, especially given where most of us were 4-5 years ago in terms of this team/organization. And it's obvious you're starting to just lean into the bit, which is fine as long you admit that's what it is. I'm not excusing anything done at the front office level, or by Russell, or Theo in bringing in these assholes, or anything else. But ultimately there's very few things in life better than sitting in the bleachers on a Friday afternoon, and them winning more than losing makes that even more enjoyable. It could be a better team, but it's still pretty good, and all of a sudden we're 4.5 years into this run and 2.5 years away from looking at Rizzo being a 31 year old declining free agent first baseman looking for big money, along with pretty much everyone else of value (KB, Lester, Javy, Schwarber, Kimbrel now) up for free agency as well. In three years the garbage people owning the team will still be there, but we probably won't have one, if not multiple of the key players that brought us the only WS any of us have ever seen. So yeah, there's a guilty feeling in paying for season tickets and watching Russell hit and everything else. But for me, the positives still outweigh the negatives.
  20. squally1313
    Can we have a day off please
  21. squally1313
    I mean, I hate to break it to you, but the list of players that could qualify as Monstars is pretty slim. Thankfully, we have at least one of them already, and the one everyone wanted in the offseason, well... 294 PAs, 11 HRs, 13.6% BB%, 29.6% K%, .338 BABIP, .251/.357/.466, 114 wRC, 1.8 WAR 254 PAs, 13 HRs, 13.4% BB%, 27.6% K%, .272 BABIP, .233/.335/.460, 104 wRC, 0.6 WAR Unless your list of 'cool ways it actually matters' is BABIP (sure?), defensive metrics (almost definitely not), or a majestic, flowing mane of hair (alright, definitely fair)...we'd kinda be in the same spot.
  22. squally1313
    Also, this type of statement, posted by any new poster here, would get ripped apart by pretty much everyone here, including, if not especially, you.
  23. squally1313
    Schwarber!?!?!?
  24. squally1313
    Maybe if we make him the quasi utility guy for a few weeks we can convince him to sign a Bote contract.
  25. squally1313
    We have seven guys in the line up who are above average hitters, and at least a couple are elite. Outside of Contreras, none of them are terrible defenders, and the fact that Contreras is a borderline elite hitter at the hardest defensive position is pretty solid. I feel like this always gets shifted back into a 'the Ricketts suck' argument. Yes, Bryce would be sweet, or Michael Brantley, or whoever else. Yes, I agree the Ricketts suck. Given this false budget we're supposedly working under, signing a hitter in the offseason could have meant no Kimbrel. What's a bigger issue on the team at this point, especially given the inherent fragile nature of a rotation with four guys in their 30s? In conclusion, the Ricketts suck. The Cubs offense, and the Cubs in general, definitely do not suck.
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