squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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Happy for you that the cubs royally sucked tonight so you could post your little ‘gotcha’ tonight
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I don’t know how you define ‘plummet’ but being ahead of those three teams and there being two spots available still, mathematically, puts you in a pretty good spot.
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Why not
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Couldn’t figure out how ‘live’ it was. Could be right. Rockies won at least.
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I’ll stay on brand and say that it’s going to be incredibly tough to wake up in the morning with like a 75% chance to make the playoffs, but hopefully we all can struggle through. At this particular moment though, the lack of any fight whatsoever, coming off a day off, is pretty bleak.
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Well this is a disaster.
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There’s too many teams in the race for me to deep dive their bullpen dorks, so I have no idea what we’re going to see the rest of the way here. Just, you know, do that thing where you either sequence hits correctly or, even better, hit balls over the fence. (Steele settling back into his dominant self is a small silver lining because him going belly up is actually the end of all of this)
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Also, get your horsefeathers together offense please and thank you
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Incredible pull
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Your commitment to playing out various scenarios is truly impressive. I'm too old, there are too many teams, etc. Let me try a different way, not even to prove a point...I'm just more used to this phrasing: Let's say the Cubs go 6-9 (nice) to finish the year. Short of a complete collapse, kinda worst case scenario. Without considering head to head, and using UMFan's tiebreaker notes above, us missing the playoffs would require three of the following: Phillies to go 5-11 or better Diamondbacks to go 8-6 Reds to go 8-6 Giants to go 9-5 Marlins to go 9-6 Ignoring the Phillies, who by most basic metrics are Good and have a very low bar to cross, missing the playoffs after finishing 6-9 would require two of the four teams above, all with worse records than us, all with a negative run differential, to play .570 ball or better the rest of the year. Certainly possible in this very pessimistic situation. Change the Cubs record to 7-8 and suddenly you're looking at 9-5 x2, 10-4, 10-5. Basically: close to .500 and we're fine.
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Worth noting that the Braves will most likely have home field through the WS essentially wrapped by the time we get to that series. That's not to say they're going to roll out a AAA team for a week, and they're so good that they've been on auto pilot for three months and are still dominating. But it's going to be a team with nothing to play for.
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****** series! Our two best pitchers didn’t pitch and we either stranded or lost to dumb decisions like 30 baserunners. Certainly can’t repeat this going forward unless you want to go home in a couple weeks. Hopefully that was sufficiently negative. going 16-12 in the last calendar month and going from out of a playoff spot to a playoff spot with a cushion is not playing bad. I get that it came on the heels of an unsustainable hot streak, both for the true talent level of the team and also just how baseball in general works. But it’s still pretty decent?
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You don't really have to make these decisions until the end of the Arizona series right? Have your top 3 starters going on an extra days rest already, and then another day off on Monday to figure out what you want to do from there.
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12 runs in a series in Colorado is pretty bad, against this Rockies team is even worse, even if the underlying metrics (batting slash lines, exit velos, etc) are going to come out a lot better. Stop making dumb mistakes on the basepaths, figure out a way to convert on your opportunities. Much needed day off for everyone.
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I mean, they're 16-11 starting on August 14th, if we're going to go with 'about a month'. 14 of those games against Milwaukee, Cincinnati, SF, and Arizona (8-6 in those games, so 8-5 against lesser competition). The same group that was ripping on people talking up the run differential in the first half when it outpaced results is now just like, mentally blocking out a very convincing sweep of a WC contender a whole week ago and just basically saying the vibes are bad.
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Score more runs idiots
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Caught up through the thread, guessed a score of like, 1-1.
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I love the idea of Ohtani and Alonso so much, but I'm a little terrified at the idea of the money for those signings/trades coming from Stroman and/or Hendricks being gone and then using all our financial resources on two offensive players. Next year counts as part of the window too, and going into it with Jordan Wicks as the #2 starter is pretty concerning.
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Is 'Ohtani' the missing word there?
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Yeah I don't think you really want to be making injuries/consistency part of your pro-Bellinger argument. Cody has missed 31 games this year, Alonso came up in 2019 and has missed 24 games in his career. We've got about 2.5 months of elite offensive performance from Cody in the last 3 years (at 6/30 this year he was carrying a .266/.329/.451 line, good for a 107 wRC). Alonso has never been below 120, throw out 2020 and he's never been below 130. He's had one month below 100 wRC month in the last three years. There are arguments to be made for Cody, but this one isn't it.
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If you set the cutoff point right after the sweep of the giants, then yeah, sure, 2-4, not great! 1-1 on the road with two pitchers from the 3-5 range of our rotation? Not as bad. But slice it up however you want. And yes, the Rockies are terrible. But they’re also 30-39 at home vs 22-53 on the road. Coors is weird, not going to turn this into something it’s not. never said they looked good tonight. 9 runs in two games against bad pitching in coors isn’t really acceptable. Part of that is bad luck (see how many hard hit balls they had yesterday), part of that is bad ABs at bad times, part of that is bad decisions (stop giving them outs on the bases). I expect they’ll win tomorrow because they’re better and because they’ve been really good at winning series lately. Which is all you can reasonably expect from a road series. If they don’t, different conversation.
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The cubs are like, optimistically, a 90 win team, right? The cubs have played 13 games this month, a vast majority of them against contending teams, 7 home/6 road, and gone 7-6. Which is an 87 win pace. It’s just…baseball? It’s a flawed team, this isn’t 2015-2017. We’re doing what we need to do to throw our hat in the ring at the end of the month. but I guess you could also just do the 5 game sample size and say things are terrible.
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A 56 mph check swing bloop away from maybe going for a road sweep tomorrow
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Great AB
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Seems odd to me to throw wesneski here in a seemingly one inning spot when he would be one of the two dudes who could go multiple innings tomorrow if taillon blows up
