squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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Really would prefer to avoid a rain delay situation where we end up needing 6-7 innings from the pen
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It’s the second start of the year. Like four dudes got scheduled for surgery today. It’s fine.
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Great call Ross!
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Off topic, but can I throw out an idea for board organization: can we leave game threads in the Cubs board for like a week? No problem with the live ones being pinned here, but the byproduct of that has been that the game threads forum has mostly turned into an archive, and I think post game discussions might last longer if the threads stayed in the main cubs forum for a little while
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lol Ohtanis fly out was 110 off the bat and a .910 xBA
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Yeah I think the frustration is going to come from the the lack of slug when the bases are full. But they're going to be full, and that's a much better frustration than just uncompetitive ABs ad nauseam
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This is so fun
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Stringing these ABs together after that first inning is so damn impressive
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That's a really bad defensive swing in a 3-1 count from Gomes
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It'd be fun to give Prior a nice ovation on one of these mound visits. Looked at tickets for tomorrow and appears like it's going to be packed (given that you can't get into the bleachers for under $100)...would be a good day for it.
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We Are Good
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I gave a college try into doing algebra on the LOB% formula (https://library.fangraphs.com/pitching/lob/) and to try and solve for runs given a league average metric and gave up because laziness. A very rough comparison based on the three qualified pitchers last year with FIPs most similar to Assad (4.29): Dane Dunning, 4.27 FIP, 77.5% LOB%, 3.70 ERA Miles Mikolas, 4.27 FIP, 68.9% LOB%, 4.78 ERA Chris Bassitt, 4.28 FIP, 76.5% LOB%, 3.60 ERA Conceptualizing the above, it makes sense I think. Dunning's LOB # is roughly 10% higher than Mikolas', given a WHIP of like 1.25 that mostly explains the variance in ERA. The one thing mentioned in that article is that high strikeout guys have shown a tendency to be LOB beaters, which Assad is definitely not. Then again, neither is/was Hendricks, but don't think Assad has his soft contact skills either. Probably talking about a few different things here at this point, no one expects him to be Hendricks and he almost definitely isn't Hendricks, but that's fine.
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I don't know if there's a specific innings number. Do think something like his LOB%, which is 83.8%, implies a lot of sequencing luck that overrides some sort of FIP-beater status. Hendricks, the guy I think of as a classic FIP-beater, has a career 74.8% LOB% and the league average last year was 71.9%.
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Yeah trust me, I’m hoping it’s out of my system soon. In the same way I don’t really understand how people can get so worked up about game 6, or any game taking place in a snowglobe, I’m aware that my thing is getting similarly tired. to maybe clarify, no issue in calling out almonte for walking multiple people in a 6 run game or Nico trying to play hero ball or whatever. It’s the projecting out of individual bad performances as some overarching fatal flaw or proof of a failed offseason that seems unnecessary to me. Tom Ricketts (who, again, sucks) didn’t give us enough money to spend on the bullpen and therefore we are doomed to live like this all year? Probably don’t go check to see what the astros $95m reliever did yesterday (or Sunday). It’s baseball, and early april baseball at that. Leads will be blown by our pitching, leads will be erased by our offense.
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Is this even really a thing anymore at all, much less specifically a cubs thing? Since the beginning of 2015 (this is the 10th season in that run), we have the 6th most wins in baseball, have had one season that was wholly uncompetitive, and went from what is universally regarded as the most loved cubs core of all time, even including the pretty disappointing ending, to this current iteration, which I genuinely enjoy pretty much across the board (even Morel!), and who has very much not reached their ceiling. In spite of Tom Ricketts, who sucks and should be blamed directly or indirectly for most bad things in the world, this team has been a pretty enjoyable follow for a while now. Maybe not compared to the dodgers, but especially compared to the 10-80 years before that.
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Just looking for a little levelheadedness when one inning in a bullpen game in these conditions goes sideways (aided by some very uncharacteristic defense), but hey, relitigating 2023 and the offseason decisions works too.
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Just watched the cubs sweep in 18 degree weather with Assad and Luke little starting the last two games, four in a row total, like 6 of our hitters are on fire, time to go scroll through the game thread and read all the posts talking about how awesome we are.
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Going to assume it’s one of those things that’s more common than you think, you just notice it more because of how much you disproportionately watch the cubs. And then probably be proven wrong when someone actually does the research.
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The thing I have to remember is 'the wind not blowing in' =/= 'the wind howling out'. I found myself running those hypotheticals of an afternoon in July with 4 basket shots on 86 MPH pop ups, but those days are basically as common/uncommon as what Imanaga pitched in yesterday. Like Tim said, take the swings and misses, accept that there will be some bombs, hope he can get lucky on the sequencing side (strikeouts will help there).
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I will always hold a place for Baez in the back of my mind A. because he is awesome, and B. because I'm 100% sure that whatever he has left would be maximized getting back in a Cubs uniform, and therefore it's a unique value prop to us. Unfortunately that contract makes it pretty impossible for a few more years, which are going to sap whatever he's got left. Whatever, good for him for getting his bag.
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I probably got a little carried away in my Morel bashing (fell in love with Chapman a little, had a big problem with people being like 'well he's super athletic, so he just need a couple weeks at third and voila'), but rest assured I would have been a little less pessimistic if you would have told me he suddenly strikes out less than Madrigal. But also more pessimistic if you would have told me he can't catch line drives. The beauty of a 5 game sample!
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Little shake up here: Nico (2B) Seiya (RF) Cody (CF) Morel (DH) Dansby (SS) Happ (LF) Cooper (1B) Madrigal (3B) Amaya (C) Assman on the mound. Must like the Hoerner matchup against Freeland or just trying to jumpstart him a little bit. Cooper with the start against the lefty.
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This might be overly cynical, but given that they were probably expecting low attendance for these games either way, they opted for a night game to maximize the after work crowd in all the (heated) suites, all inclusive areas, etc...ie, the most expensive seats in the building.
