soccer10k

Because it's top 10-12 in the league both as starters and relievers and we've got a top-5 offense in the majors? do you think this is a top 10-12 pitching staff the rest of the way? i'm optimistic that they can win 85-90 games if they stay healthy, which is basically where we were before the season, when we all agreed that this team was disappointing. I do. I think we've got 4 above average starting pitchers. The non-Darvish guys all have FIP's between 3.31 and 3.99 (Lester's was 3.41 and I assume that didn't go over 4 after today) and ERA+ above 110. As for the pen, I generally trust Strop, Cishek and Brach, though they're far from perfect. Kintzler has been okay, though I don't trust him, and Ryan has been okay. Chatwood is definitely due for some regression, though the walks are way down. Monty since he came off the DL has a 1.64 ERA, though it's only been 11 innings. The pen is still tough to tell because they're not even at 30 innings yet. I don't remember who said it in a game thread (either yesterday or today) but I think the biggest issue perception wise is we don't have a stud on the staff. We don't have an ace that you can trot out there every five days and be pretty confident they're going to shut the other team down. And we don't have a lights out closer that we can trust to preserve a 1-run lead in the ninth (or any inning for that matter). We've got a lot of decent to good arms but no great ones. And when the bad outings come slightly more frequently and pitchers aren't putting up zeroes consistently (and struggling a bit when they do), it really alters the perception of how good they are. I get it. When the game is close and we bring in a new reliever only to see him walk or give up a hit to the first hitter, I'd be lying if my first thought generally isn't "well here we go again". We definitely need an upgrade and I, like pretty much everyone on this board, will be annoyed if we don't make any moves to upgrade the pen before the deadline. Theo will do something. How significant? We'll see. But yeah, on the whole, I do trust the staff. The non-Darvish starters are all capable of being lights out on any given night or stringing together a few strong starts in a row. Two weeks ago Q was 4th among the starters with a 3.50 ERA. They had a terrible 10 days to start the year, then a great month, and now a bad two weeks. Who knows, another great month could be right around the corner. Could they all blow up and cause this season to go south quickly? Sure. They're still pitchers. But I haven't seen anything yet to make me think that's super likely.

Because it's top 10-12 in the league both as starters and relievers and we've got a top-5 offense in the majors?

I just think the 23-7 or whatever was kind of a fluke in the sense that I dont think the the rotation (the 3 lefties in particular) are going to have another dominant stretch like they did. It's also unlikely that the top 4 hitters maintain a .950-1.000 ops all season, and I dont see any other hitters getting super hot to make up for the inevitable regression of the top 4. Even when we were on pace for like 100 wins, fangraphs still only had us around 90. Of course 23-7 was kind of a fluke. There’s a reason no team has won 124 games in a season. Our 5-15 stretch in 2016 was a fluke also but it still happened. The Dodgers going 1-14 or whatever they did in 2017 was a fluke but that happened also. It’s how a baseball season works. The point is the team is good enough to have that sort of a stretch. But they’re also flawed enough to have the stretch they’re on now. Even if you say what they’ve done to this point is their true talent level, they’re still on pace for 93-94 wins. As for the projections, of course they didn’t have the Cubs projected for 100 when they were on pace for that. That’s not how projections work. They had us for 80-whatever wins before the year so at the 40 game mark, the projection is a combination of preseason projections and the first 40 games and it's probably going to be weighted towards the preseason projection. The longer the season goes, the more the current season will affect the projections. The Dodgers are on pace for 108 wins but only projected for 100 because they were only projected for 90 something coming into the year. The Nats are on pace for 66 wins but are projected for 81 for the same reason. The projections thought they’d be better going into the year. Want to go solely based on what the team has done this year? Based on what we've done so far, Fangraphs has us projected for 93.2 wins. This isn't just an extrapolation on our record because the Reds (26-29) are projected for 86.7 wins based on season stats so far. Baseball Prospectus has our 1st, 2nd and 3rd order winning percentages all between 31.2 and 31.4 wins. Pythag has us at 31-21. So we're right on where our stats say we should be. So sure, we probably got lucky a bit during the 23-7 run. But we were also unlucky during our terrible stretch to begin the year and maybe a bit during these last 10-15 games.

We’ve got 36 games before the ASB after this series. As of now, 8 of those are against teams that are good (4 against LA and Atl). That’s not to say the stretch is easy but we play a lot of .500 teams (StL twice, Col twice, NYM, Pit and Cincy) plus the White Sox. We’re going to be fine. This is the same team that went 14-6 against Pitt, LAA, LAD, Ari (twice), StL and Mil during their hot stretch (I excluded games against the crap teams like Mia and Sea). The offense is good and the pitching is solid enough to generally get the job done. They’re going to have stretches where things go bad, like now, and we’re only 6-8 in the last 14, despite blowing two games to Cincy and one to Philly (I know we pulled a couple out so it probably evens out). But they’re also going to have stretches where everything clicks and they go 23-7 (or whatever it was) largely playing good teams.

Oh chill out dude This is just what he does.

I’m surprised you’re even that optimistic.

Have you seen who is batting behind him?

Cards were up 3-0 and gave up 3 in the 9th and 1 in the 10th to lose.

Off to a great start.

Phew.

Well that was big.

Well this is going well.

Like abuck said yesterday maybe Maddon is sending a message. The only message I’m getting is that we should have a new manager next year.

Why is Darvish still out there?

Texted a friend when it was 3-2 that I felt like we would need 6 more runs to win this game. We’ve scored 3 since then and I still feel like we’ll need 6 more to win it.

Was going to be annoyed at Almora there but then I realized it means we get Darvish’s PA out of the way this inning.

Yep, we’re just throwing the division away. The team that will still be in first place at the end of the day and is on pace for *checks notes* 96 wins is just throwing the division away.

We’re unlucky we haven’t won 6 in a row.

LOL

Willy definitely going to be hacking first pitch.

Damn, Javy. Should be two on no out.

We just don’t get 2 out hits, and other teams do. That’s the story of the losses on this homestand. Cubs have a 890 OPS with RISP and 2 out, third in the league. Just a .240 BA which is 16th.

Cool.

Oh good, more bloopers.

The record is 267 which the Yankees set last year. Even crazier is the Orioles are on pace to allow 347 home runs. The record is 258 by the 2016 Reds. At their current pace, the Orioles will beat it in Game 121.