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WrigleyField 22

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Everything posted by WrigleyField 22

  1. WrigleyField 22
    Elite adjustments.
  2. WrigleyField 22
    I could see Jerry going with someone like AJ Pierzynski Hell, they’ll probably bring Ozzie Guillen back. I have a Sox fan friend who would legit love this. Basically thinks if you win a title you should never be fired lol.
  3. WrigleyField 22
    I'll be a pleased fan. I won't be a happy fan until Poles gives him an actual supporting cast worthy of a good team.
  4. WrigleyField 22
    Thought this was interesting. Bears terrible at 1st down passes and actually okay on 3/4th. You'd think a team with bad pass pro and a strong run game would be opposite of that, but maybe the samples are still small
  5. WrigleyField 22
    Actually, they'd pick 17th if the season ended today. https://www.tankathon.com/nfl/full_draft Granted they are tied with all the teams that pick from 7th on down, and 7th is about where they will probably finish, but they have played the toughest schedule so far of the 2-3 teams. Yea that schedule that was supposed to be easy is currently killing their draft tie breaker with the hardest SOS. I expect that to normalize at least some, but projects to still be higher than expected.
  6. WrigleyField 22
    For anyone curious about the Bears standing in terms of the minimum spend requirement. My latest estimate (all pretty conservative estimates) Estimated spend minimum (554M - 90% of 615.7M) Estimated spend + scheduled spend = 442M (this assumes something like a 7 or 8 pick slot rookie bonus pool) Spend deficit = 112M (I'd say +/- 5M depending on final draft positioning). If you look at probable vet cuts (such as Quinn @ 14M, Whitehair @9.9M), the minimum spend deficit could grow another 20-25M You have Smith and Montgomery as in house guys who might sign big deals with first year numbers. Mooney, Johnson, and to a much lesser extent Gipson and Kmet as early extension candidates. So maybe you get another 50M in year 1 signing bonuses to lower that outlay. But I think that's far from guaranteed and you're talking about lots of questionable money at RB/LB anyways then.
  7. WrigleyField 22
    And despite what you want to say about sunk costs, its hard to imagine ownership walking away in mere months and eating that signing bonus and not getting a very high value pick out of the deal.
  8. WrigleyField 22
    Like value wise worth a number one or talent wise? Because he has to outperform your #1 by about 11.5M (let's assume it's the number 10 pick, which will be like 22/4 vs his 51/3) to be worth it value wise, strictly speaking. So a #10 pick and 10M in annual cash or DJ Moore. Obviously the certainty value carries some worth, but to what extent is kinda hard to grade. But at the very least changes based on teams' contention mode. luckily, they have so much cap space they could make the dollar amount a moot point by restructuring him. or maybe they cant I really dont know but lets pretend they can and trade for Moore anyway Yea, I'm far from worried about any cap mechanics. Its just losing the high value picks (all over again).
  9. WrigleyField 22
    I'd agree for the Bears if that FA was older, but Moore is just coming into his prime years and would be worth a #1. That addition alone along with a strong draft/FA could get you the division if other chips fell your way, or wc. Teams rebuild overnight all the time in the nfl. Like value wise worth a number one or talent wise? Because he has to outperform your #1 by about 11.5M (let's assume it's the number 10 pick, which will be like 22/4 vs his 51/3) to be worth it value wise, strictly speaking. So a #10 pick and 10M in annual cash or DJ Moore. Obviously the certainty value carries some worth, but to what extent is kinda hard to grade. But at the very least changes based on teams' contention mode.
  10. WrigleyField 22
    I mean, saying for only a second negates a huge portion of my point. I'm highly skeptical that the cost would be that low. Unfortunately with the 2023 FA group, I don't think you match Moore, but if there were a Cooper equivalent trade that would be pretty opportunistic and then you keep your high value picks and also try and draft some budding stars, and use FA on line and some better WR depth. man, I'd even be very tempted to go with a 1st for him. Oh I'd still be tempted, but it's such a win move now for a team that was anything but in 2022 (way beyond any need to be). Like it's hard to understand 2022 as anything other than a tank job, but then you go anti tank 5 games in, but also still too late to make you think theres a good chance its merely some mid round pick you'll part with.
  11. WrigleyField 22
    I cannot imagine a scenario where they are unwilling to spend in 2023. Ownership has opened the wallet in the past, and Poles already punted his first season. It’s not like you can carryover unused cap for future use. They have to spend in 2023. Well you can carry over cap space literally. But they do have a minimum cash spend they have to hit before the first day of the 2024 league year. So they'll spend a decent amount just to hit the minimum. How high they draft slot is will have some material aspect there, but mostly it's up to Poles. 2022 wasnt super encouraging there. They could spend just the minimum required and Moore would help there, but if you're trading 1sts for vets, you better be in full win now mode and maxing cap spend, not barely scraping at the minimum.
  12. WrigleyField 22
    there is absolutely nothing about signing Moore that would prohibit them from being "opportunistic" in the offseason. Not to mention, who in the offseason would be a better FA to get than Moore for the same value? If you could get him with a 2nd round pick, why wouldn't you? hes good, cheap and young I mean, saying for only a second negates a huge portion of my point. I'm highly skeptical that the cost would be that low. Unfortunately with the 2023 FA group, I don't think you match Moore, but if there were a Cooper equivalent trade that would be pretty opportunistic and then you keep your high value picks and also try and draft some budding stars, and use FA on line and some better WR depth.
  13. WrigleyField 22
    If you're gonna part with draft picks for a player, like Moore, you better be willing to spend in FA in 2023 too. I would struggle to part with a first, but I think it likely takes that. Maybe for a 2024 first instead of a 2023, but a first of some kind. AJ Brown was a 1st and 3rd. That has to be the absolute minimum asking price to start for Carolina. But Brown was going to require a 100/4 extension whereas the acquiring team of Moore is getting a very friendly 51/3. For a playoff hunt team that's pretty easy to justify. Not as much for the Bears. I think they could be a little more opportunistic than that if they wait until offseason.
  14. WrigleyField 22
    If I were an NFL coach, I'd have a pretty straightforward philosophy about going for 2. - After a defensive or special teams score, go for 2 - After a long scoring play, go for 2 I'd use those 2pt conversions as practice for short yardage situations going forward. There's no reason a good NFL offense shouldn't be able to pick up 3 yards at least 3/4 of the time it needs to. I'd spend a ton of practice time on short yardage conversions and I'd never punt on 3rd and less than 4 beyond my own 45. I'd never kick a sub 30 yard FG, unless time dictates otherwise either way. I'd probably add a first drive score to the list myself. But about the only justification I could see for not going for two a lot more is you have a limited set of 2 yard and out plays and you want some element of surprise for when you really need them. But I'm not even sure that's actually a good argument or just one that makes us feel good.
  15. WrigleyField 22
    I think teams should probably be going for two way more regardless of the exact point differentials early in the game. Probably especially so if you're a bad O that ends of settling for many FGs. So I don't really care even what the models say, if Eberflus feels compelled to go for some 2pat, I'm not going to complain
  16. WrigleyField 22
    Tank for Smith-Njigba
  17. WrigleyField 22
    One of those things was supposed to stand for smart right?
  18. WrigleyField 22
    Yea hate rooting for a tank, but let's do it and get Fields some targets. Fix OL in FA (FA WR group isn't great)
  19. WrigleyField 22
    The Bears don't have a NFL caliber WR so they play dudes like this.
  20. WrigleyField 22
    Rofl.
  21. WrigleyField 22
    Lawrence, Wilson, Lance. He was fourth. But different drafts are different. The relative position number doesn't matter that much. Not nearly as much as the overall spot. Like Fields isnt Matt Corral and Watson isn't Malik Willis because every draft is different.
  22. WrigleyField 22
    That leaves him tied for 130th place Is that bad? I feel like that's bad.
  23. WrigleyField 22
    Like, Watson was 12th overall and 3rd QB and no one smart ever doubted he was a serious prospect.
  24. WrigleyField 22
    I dunno if I'd call the 4th qb taken, after being passed over by 10 teams, a 'prized' prospect. He is. The 4th part is pretty much irrelevant and even the 11-15th is significant investment. But he's probably a top 5 pick most years. Easily would have been the first QB off board in 2022.
  25. WrigleyField 22
    I definitely didn't think he'd trade up for a QB in a lame duck provide it year. I guess plan A was trading a haul for Wilson. Maybe extend ARob to a 4 year deal after that. Phew, close call. If the worst was a year 2 QB change for prized QB prospect.. coulda been much worse.
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