WrigleyField 22

So what you are saying is, with the right mental approach, the rest of the season will be fun no matter what. I like that. It'll only take me 30 minutes or so after a loss to shift my focus to the tank positives. Exactly. I'm thinking about the tank like 6 days of the week, but actively rooting against my team for 3 hours on Sunday? Not for me. Also I have to say this is already kind of a tank success at this stage. If they back into a win I'll still be able to look pretty favorably at the tank job they did pull off come April.

Superstar Brock Purdy. Don't think Cowboys tiebreaker is really relevant unless they can somehow catch Philly. So it really comes down to Minny and SF. Them being tied or SF back 1 keeps the game relevant. Just can't have them gain two games on Minny over next 3 weeks. i dont think any of that matters, there is only 1 bye this year i believe, and thats clearly Philly. only thing that comes into play is if SF and Minny see each other in the divisional round Well 2 seed gets HFA in divisional round. Or you're saying that doesn't matter unless both 2 and 3 seed win wild card round? I'd still think you'd rather have the guaranteed HFA looking ahead to Div round.

Superstar Brock Purdy. Don't think Cowboys tiebreaker is really relevant unless they can somehow catch Philly. So it really comes down to Minny and SF. Them being tied or SF back 1 keeps the game relevant. Just can't have them gain two games on Minny over next 3 weeks.

I know this hasn't been a fresh take in like 20 years, but man, there are a lot of dumb bowl games. Mike Leach news sucks. RIP.

I don’t know who runs things there but Kingsbury in year 5 with up and down success so far doesn’t seem like a good tank option. They may just lose anyway. They're also in a tough spot having just extended both Kingsbury and Kiem, so I'm not banking on it. But it's slightly more likely now than it was 24 hours ago.

So Kyler Murray with a torn ACL. Any chance Arizona looks to do a little mini tank rebuild and sell some assets, like, I don't know, DeAndre Hopkins?

Why would anyone care what this chick thinks? Chicks man She has "dongs and vibes" in her about section. Immediate follow IMO (if the funny tweet wasn't enough)

Eh they've also shredded Ds because Fields can create 50 yard plays at any moment. They're a 5-8 team with bad variance luck if you believe expected W-L at all. Luckily all the 4 teams they play are still much better. But there's a plausible chance that they pull off a win here in the next 4 games. Luckily even with an extra win they still can't drop below 5th. And I'd say a fairly good chance that they don't drop past 4th, even with a win. I will take that.

And a couple unlikely bounces from being a 10 seed. Basically no matter what happens, Bears have probably overshot their tank median outcome by end of year. Whether it's 2, 3, 4, 5, it's gonna be a great pick.

I cannot stress enough that rooting against your team won't actually increase the likelihood they lose. So don't be a weirdo. Cheer for your team to win, and only use tanking as loss hedging after the fact.

Is it the most likely scenario? I may take a top 3 bet over the field. In any case top 5 feels like 90%+ confidence level for me.

Could definitely win one. Even just a 5% chance to win against Philly and Buffalo and a 15% chance against Detroit and Minny would equate to winning at least once 34% of the time. What are the odds on any individual game...? Trying to find stats on historical outright wins at different underdog spreads and can't find it.

You're right it's a great spot to be in. If Poles isn't sold on Anderson/Carter I think he'll still be able to trade down if he's so inclined, but it wont be "3 first rounders robbery" type of trade down if it's not a team trading up for a QB. That said, that's exactly the trade that SF did up to 3 to get the third QB in the 2021 draft. So we can hold out hope. Plus, I'm not totally convinced Carroll would actually go QB at 2, though he could certaintly look to trade down as well then.

I drafted David Njoku to start the season and dropped him after 2 or 3 weeks of basically nothing. Since then it's been a revolving door of terrible numbers while Njoku has actually been pretty good. Pitts owner who had a great stable of RB and tried like hell to pull off a Kelce trade but couldn't. Every week is an adventure now. Only good thing is next week still doesn't matter for me. Then in week 16 it starts to count.

Start a streaming TE who scored more than zero points challenge.

So those TBD ones are most likely One of: Commanders/Giants Cardinals/Rams Steelers/Browns

I am firmly in team trade down just because I think having more spins at the wheel is your best chance at some semblance of certainty when acquiring talent, but if I were drafting there and he's available (and were taking defense), I'd rather have Carter. Just seems interior guys like that are harder to find than good edge guys and would make a huge impact on this defense. Nothing like a guy who can wreck shop and generate pressure from the interior. Fully willing to admit that I don't follow college whatsoever, though, so all I know is what I've seen on Twitter and draft scouting reports. I agree with every word of the first paragraph. It's a toss up on who's the better prospect, though I do think Carter is more unique because like you said, there are more impact edge guys out there than impact DTs. I think Bears' fans attachment to Anderson is in part due to the fact that I think it's a pretty safe assumption that the Bears will add a DT in free agency. They tried to pay big money for Ogunjobi last year, when they had no money. Now they have a ton of cap and a loaded DT class. Well the good news is that if they finish at number 2 they can actually craft a FA strategy over which guy they like more between Carter or Anderson, if that's the route they're leaning. Although Poles may decide to keep his options open and plan FA like he'll be picking later in case he gets that trade down haul. In that case they'd look to definitely add both DT and DE in FA anyways. I guess the DT is more scarce since you have pretty distinct roles between 3T and NT. You could say that the DE do have distinct strong side/ weak side roles, and some might say Anderson is really a weak side DE and not a strong side DE. But it's more often to have DE who can do both than a DT who does both. Situational football comes into play too though. In pass rush downs guys may shift down to spots they wouldn't on nuetral downs.

He's either gonna be their starter or he'll flip into a comp pick for them. Whethet hes thier starter or not is probably totally dependent on Staffords health.

David Ross (kind of counts :dontknow: )

I don't know, but 11 years for a 30 year old SS seems...ill advised to me. I heard it suggested somewhere that the extra couple years are to get the AAV down. If a player wants $250M, he knows he's unlikely to get another deal at 38 or 40 regardless. So stretch it over 11 years instead of 8. Yea at a certain point the years on these deals are just window dressing. And at least a lower AAV lowers the annual amount towards the tax cap right?

Yea. Something like "if every team won 50% of their 1 score games is less interesting, but mor informative. Or just run expected W-L off point differential. In any case, Vikings are a fraud 10 win team. Everything else is kinda whatever.

I have two TE, currently Geisicki and Knox. They play two bad Ds in GB and Chicago week 16. So I'm okay with them for now, but watching like 6 others. Higbee is the big one who I had for a while and has gotten quite a few targets and should have a decent matchup for playoffs. Theres a half dozen guys I flagged to watch for, but I think I'll take my second choice at TE over a second choice on the waiver wire at QB if Hurts went down. It's gonna be a crap shoot no matter what at TE. I may drop Moore after this week for a 3rd TE. He's starting in flex due to byes this week, and he's been kind of a deep/sleeper keeper hold for me all yeat, but in all likliehood not a keeper option I'll use next year. And he's like WR5 for me. Ah, ok. I'm in a pretty competative 14 team league. I'm somehow in first, and Moreau and McBride are the TEs I have rostered... Yea, only a 10 team league for me. I wasted too long hoping for Pitts to turn around his season and probably missed the boat on some buy low TE options I coulda still picked up mid-season though. And wasn't able to pull off any trades. Moreau, Higbee, Bellinger, Hooper, Henry, Otton, Tonyan are the guys are flagged to watch this week and next and then decide between them and Knox/Geisicki who I go week 16 and 17.

Why not both Sure. But interior first They have a bazillion dollars, they better prioritize them both at the same time.

If you want to snag a TE and hope they have a role when week 16 and 17 comes around, I think Trey McBride makes sense. He's getting all the snaps at TE, and Kyler has tended to favor targetting TEs. He just hasn't been getting the targets thus far since Ertz went down. I think it makes more sense holding a guy like him (or Okonkwo, etc) than White, whom you could probably grab anyways if Hurtz gets hurt. I have two TE, currently Geisicki and Knox. They play two bad Ds in GB and Chicago week 16. So I'm okay with them for now, but watching like 6 others. Higbee is the big one who I had for a while and has gotten quite a few targets and should have a decent matchup for playoffs. Theres a half dozen guys I flagged to watch for, but I think I'll take my second choice at TE over a second choice on the waiver wire at QB if Hurts went down. It's gonna be a crap shoot no matter what at TE. I may drop Moore after this week for a 3rd TE. He's starting in flex due to byes this week, and he's been kind of a deep/sleeper keeper hold for me all yeat, but in all likliehood not a keeper option I'll use next year. And he's like WR5 for me.

I'm okay if he, Borom, and Leatherwood are the 2-4 tackle spots (plus Borom and Leatherwood can also prob bump inside as backups). I want them to sign a legit veteran tackle (Right or Left side doesn't matter IMO) I'd rather they focus their attention on the interior O-line Why not both