WrigleyField 22

Definitely did mean to lol I don't understanding how this is supposed to be helpful to Bears fans. Beane was brought in to a team that was effectively run by the head coach who was hired months before him, coming on board after the draft. They played and were above .500 the first year with a team put together before Beane got involved. They then drafted their quarterback of the future the following season and had the luxury of not really needing to see anything about of him in year 1. Poles took over this team from day 1 this offseason with the QB already in place. And contrary to that thread, they don't have 4 years to make a couple runs without having to pay Fields. They have to decide on the 5th year option after year 3, and the longer you wait to sign them to a real extension, the more prohibitively expensive it will be. You can't put Fields in a position to get destroyed with no weapons (people keep giving examples of QBs who succeeded with poor offensive lines, but those examples all had pro bowl caliber skill players and many all pros) while expecting him to take the huge year 2 leap (Eberflus's words). They don't have the luxury of blowing off Fields in 2022. And as others have pointed out, if all you do is save your cap space for a rainy day you will get caught overspending once that day comes. The fact that the Bills managed to draft and develop what may be the best QB in the league says nothing about the Bears ability to take advantage of Fields' abilities. Yea Bills are not a great model based on prerequisites. Im trying to think of teams who had major regime change (coach and FO) in year 2 of a QB. I'm not sure there's any template to follow. But using other teams 2nd year under a QB, they were all that I have seen far more agressive. Just was the same GM executing strategy. Poles seems destined to make it his 2nd year and Fields 3rd. Which I guess we'll see how it goes, but I don't get it and every support I've seen it makes a weak correlative effect as an assumed causal one.

Rule 1 is mostly pointless. Team 1 still has a huge first mover advantage. It will just be 2-1 instead of 1-0. Rule 2 is interesting, but I don't think any team is giving up 1st possession still. And I'm not sure many will go for 2. So defacto same thing in most games. Literally just killing the coin toss would be a bigger improvement than either of these IMO. But there are other ways I think they could also temper some of the first mover advantage. All would involve some sort of full timed period though.

Slightly Bears related. I just found out DK Metcalf is the son of former Bear Terrence Metcalf. He obviously had him young, but I'm struggling to recover from this news re: my advanced age.

Siemian contract is at 2/4M. Theyll try to trade Foles, but at that value for Siemian I doubt anything is imminent and I'd bet on Foles just being cut. Net net the Bears would save $1M after cutting Foles.

Foles to who then?

Bates still seems like a swing IOL guy at best. Think they need a solid swing T and then maybe a cut candidate at G before the draft. That would allow them to focus on one big OL draft pick, but with position versatility Jenkins, Whitehair, Patrick, Bates, Borom Swing T, Vet G, Rookie, Mustipher That's barely an acceptable top 9 I guess. But could have made a bigger investment above the Bates role and tried to let Whitehair get beat out. They signed Dakota Dozier yesterday, so that's probably your Vet Guard for the bench. He gave up 6 sacks and committed 6 penalties when he started in 2020 for the Vikings (he's terrible). Lot riding on Patrick and Bates being able to play and Jenkins/Borom developing into really good players, really fast. A guy who spent the whole year on the PS is definitely not what I mean. Maybe more of a post draft cut candidate like Leno was last year. But some solid vet will get cut pre draft maybe.

Bates still seems like a swing IOL guy at best. Think they need a solid swing T and then maybe a cut candidate at G before the draft. That would allow them to focus on one big OL draft pick, but with position versatility Jenkins, Whitehair, Patrick, Bates, Borom Swing T, Vet G, Rookie, Mustipher That's barely an acceptable top 9 I guess. But could have made a bigger investment above the Bates role and tried to let Whitehair get beat out.

When you look at elite QBs they know where to place the ball to receivers who are not necessarily open. They seem to have the ability to throw the ball so that only the WR has the opportunity to catch it. Fields needs to be hyper-accurate with his throws if he's going to be an elite QB. Obviously, you need sticky-handed WR to make those catches too. While I don't want to discount Fields ability to grow into a more anticipatory passer I think the best version of him is gonna be more a see open throw passer than an anticipatory guy. If he miraculously becomes Rodgers, getting the ball out quickest in the league and creating separation with timing, that's amazing, but for all his talent that isn't his game right now.

I'm bullish on Fields of course, but guys have to get open. While I also expect a new scheme to open, he's still gonna need help. Unless you're super bullish on Mooney (I'm moderately so), I don't know. I mean if it was so easy and so QB dependent, Mecole Hardman would be right there with those guys too right? It's asking a lot when it doesn't have to be.

A lot of WR have still taken time to adjust (guys like Deebo or Pittman) Theres too major win now teams with multiple 1st round picks before the Bears who badly need WR. Worst thing they can do is pigeon hole themselves. But right now there needs are pretty numerous so I guess it's not a concern?

I think all the fans who wanted Dodds because he was gonna be their Ballard are getting a version of it to the extreme (and I hate it). Still a little time in FA for Poles to catchup, but they are on pace to be so seriously underleveraged so as to reach way past a point of diminishing returns.

2/12 for Jones. More than I thought. So Pringle - 6m Jones - 6 Muhammad - 5 Morrow 2.5 (up to 5) Patrick - 4 St Brown?? St Brown is probably near minimum. So Poles has handed out like 25-27M in AAV contracts, mostly on one year deals, about $40M in total contracts. If they were really trying they should have been handing out like 60M in AAV contracts based on my formula lol. Bears will have gobs of cash next year, but look not further than the 2022 Jaguars to see what it's actually like when a bad team actually tries to utlizie cap room like that. They're roundly being criticized for the 120M in AAV contracts theyre dropping this offseason.

Now signing DE Muhammad from the Colts Yea Bears aren't getting a comp pick. He's 2/10. There's no way we have more departures than arrivals for CFAs. Not a huge thing. Hopefully something the eventually get just by drafting well.

Partially depends on where Jones comes in at. If his AAV comes in above 2.3M or so it doesn't change a lot. There's obviously a valuation difference, but being 1 for 1 on losses v gains matters mostly, not total value. As it stands now, Bears don't project to gain any comp picks. Thats actually true regardless of where Jones comes in. But whether he counts or not could be a deciding factor later on if things are close. But I'd say leave the comp pick worries behind for 2023 at this point. If enough of these 1 year prove it deals hit maybe 2024 comp picks become realistic lol.

Yea I think if he were able to get healthy and pass a physical it could happen.

I'm not terribly upset about this. I think he was seriously overpaid at 3/40.5 just for who he is, not to mention that signing a pure 3T is somewhat of a luxury for a team that needs so much help on offense. I'd like to see bigger contracts for cut players like JC Tretter, Lael Collins, etc. Comp picks could be coming back if handled carefully, but obviously still target the best players for the scheme. how easy is it to find a decent 3t nowadays? I remember how important Tommie Harris was to that defense, not sure if Ogunjobi was "the guy", but it seems like they are harder to find Does seem like a little bit of a specialized skill set. As Tampa 2 waned in popularity and the hybrid 3-4s like Fangio got popular young tweener prospects were pushed towards 5t roles. I had Ogunjobis Y1 hit estimated to be as low as 5M. So from a pure cap situation, Poles may not feel like there is a 13M hole to fill and will just let his cap rollover into next year's huge space. Not a fan of that approach, but it's kinda what I expect.

They're gonna make Tom Ricketts look like a big spender Might as well just splurge on some non CFA guys on 1 year deals even if you run up the price. Could still end up getting a 3 or 4 for ARob and 5th for Daniels in next years comp pick. But they are all offset right now with a few more departures who could factor in.

Oh horsefeathers. He had foot surgery at end of year. Well no idea what they're gonna spend any money on now.

A far more appealing outcome is if Poles is betting on good fits+good coaching + easier schedule to make this like a 8-9 with Fields making a solid year 2 leap and then heading into 2023 with the 100M in space and a mid first rounder. Would be a appealing FA destination and have lots of flexibility. But the good fits+good coaching + easier schedule is a big bet.

Trying to tank for a top 5 pick with your second year possible franchise QB sounds like a terrible plan. And in order to spend all that money for 2023 as a bad team off 2022, you probably end up looking like the Jaguars and overpay a ton. It's really just not a good idea to lay over and play dead for an entire NFL offseason. Hope he has a couple other agressive moves. But not counting on it...

Trying to run some rough estimates. If the Bears keep up with all these one year deals, they can probably only spend about another 19M at most (depends on Ogunjobi structure though) If they want to tap into some 2-3 year deals they could prob spend another 45-50 on multi year deals with backloading, though doesn't seem like Poles is gonna do that. So maybe there's a middle ground if an Armstead or someone is realistic, but if not, I'm guessing they just keep plugging at these 2-6M range guys on one or maybe a couple 2 year deals. They have maybe 30-33 guys who I think are legit NFL 53 man roster guys. 6 draft picks. Maybe a couple UDFAs. So probably you wanna get another 10 solid veteran FAs. If the bottom 5 were at the vet minimum and they averaged $4M on the other 5, that's about another 26M in spending. That would require some backloading or restructures. End up with something along lines of...? QB- Fields, Foles RB- Montgomery, Herbert, Evans, UDFA WR- Mooney, Pringle, Rookie, St Brown, Newsome, UDFA TE - Kmet, Vet Min, Rookie, Horsted OT- $4M FA, Jenkins, Borom, Vet Min OG- Whitehair, Rookie, Vet Min, Vet Min OC - Patrick, Mustipher DE- Quinn, Gipson, Attachou, Rookie DT - Ogunjobi, Tonga, Blackson, Edwards, Rookie LB - Smith, Morrow, $4M FA, Johnson, Vet Min CB- Johnson, $4M FA, Graham, Vildor, Shelley, UDFA S - Jackson, $4M FA, Rookie, Vet Min Scales, Cairos, Punter

I didn't realize UNLV was a tenant, but that (2 fields) would certainly add complexity ETA: LV has swiveling columns,,,,,woo hoo! we better get some of those. Pony up Virginia $$$$$$$$ essentially, because of the seating load they need columns that can move and allow the tray to pas by, but that means other columns have to take up the load (and said other columns also swivel!!!). It is more complicated then Phoenix, but that's why rich people build stadiums (or taxpayers) and we sit and marvel at it all I'm confused as to what exactly holds up the load while the swiveling ones are swiveled. A temporary set of columns? And why can't those just be permanent? (these are somewhat rhetorical questions, please feel free to just respond "engineering magic and crossed fingers")

That article also talks about some of the extra challenges of Vegas' field to accommodate sharing UNLV as a tenant all season. Hopefully nder no circumstance are he Bears are hosting a similar type of weekly tenant in season. Growing grass indoors and hosting a occasional concert in season would be way different than the need to host a regular tenant who requires their own turf playing surface.

Where that jumbo tron is where they role the field in. It's a big opening. LV had to really beef up the support to put seats in that area (and maybe it's suspect enhineering). Those aren't the highest value seats, but its something. I guess what I mean is how they make the opening in the wall, ie concrete arch or steel truss or.....etc. there are expensive ways and reasons and not expensive ways and reasons but not being part of the design team, I dont know the decisions that led them to the results in either Phoenix or LV This obviously doesn't go into the details to the extent an architect/engineer would need, but this is where I had read about the differences and the design challenge. https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/stadium/challenge-for-las-vegas-raiders-stadium-is-moving-grass-field-inside-1568670/

I dont know the design well enough to know that is true or why, but sure it could have consequences Where that jumbo tron is where they role the field in. It's a big opening. LV had to really beef up the support to put seats in that area (and maybe it's suspect enhineering). Those aren't the highest value seats, but its something.