Signing him through arbitration would be the worst option of all. You've got him controlled through arbitration already. The only thing you'd gain is cost certainty. As I've illustrated, that's a game in which you can win a little, or lose a lot. Buying a few free agent years is the most reasonable motivation for these early extensions, and that shouldn't be a major concern for a team like the Cubs, who have a track record of keeping their guys anyway. This regime has never had a good position player so there's no way they could have a track record of keeping their guys anyway. Does it really matter if they're home-grown or not? Ramirez, Lee, Wood (when he looked poised to enter his prime after 03), etc...