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David

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Everything posted by David

  1. next to nothing. he tweeted something about lebron's mental toughness when he made a big shot and i replied how his mental toughness really showed itself on a dumb foul a few seconds before. i didn't even realize i was blocked until like 8 months later when i realized i hadn't seen any of his tweets in forever
  2. keep forgetting kyle long blocked me on twitter
  3. http://radio.cbssports.com/2016/02/17/feinstein-dont-buy-the-saber-metricians/#.VsUZyMcTY4I.twitter this feinstein guy who always has hot sports takes on the radio has some scalding takes on sabermetrics
  4. I watch the dongs pretty often on mlb.com
  5. Well, yeah, except most of the projections have them in the low to mid 90s, not 100. So they would need some positive variance overall to get to 100. None of the statistical projections have them in the low to mid 90s except PECOTA. Vegas is not a stat projection. Steamer has them at 99, ZiPs has them at even more WAR so pending the baseline it could be even higher. Oh, thanks for letting me know Vegas isn't a stat projection. I believe these are Steamer based http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings http://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml And be careful taking individual player WAR projections and adding them to a replacement level value to come up with a win total. It gets you close, but it's not perfect.
  6. Well, yeah, except most of the projections have them in the low to mid 90s, not 100. So they would need some positive variance overall to get to 100.
  7. that guy also happened to be at the hamels no hitter, it looks like. the cubs have not been treating him great when he goes to see them.
  8. I always go back to the good version of Mark Bellhorn for ceiling. Bellhorn was only good twice, and I think a few years apart too, but otherwise the heavy Iso offense, passable D, switch hitting 2B thing works in my head. --- Draft prediction: Cubs take HS RHP Reggie Lawson with the Fowler comp pick. Mark Bellhorn.......eek. I was hoping for Todd Walker. I felt like Walker's defensive shortcomings were overblown and he should have been given more credit for his bat. I'd love for Happ to turn into someone with great contact skills, a bit of pop, and who could take the occasional Walk. In other words a very solid number two hitter. As for this Lawson fellow, is he a high upside arm? I feel like with having so many slots in the lineup locked up for years Theo should take a chance and use that Fowler pick on a somewhat risky high upside arm. It's just kind of frustrating to not have that many pitchers in the farm system to get enthused about. Even if he flames out it's not as if a top ten pick was sacrificed in the process. I don't think Happ is going to have great contact skills. Doesn't mean he can't be a good player, though.
  9. this thread probably works for pre-season bouquets too http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2016/2/17/11034524/mlb-preseason-predictions-cubs-phillies-mariners
  10. whatever secret super special steroids yielded the bryce harper pic last year and this pic of reed johnson, we need to get some of them too [tweet]https://twitter.com/chelsea_janes/status/700010504950042625[/tweet]
  11. Even if an MLB exec doesn't like Heyward, it's funny when an NL Exec doesn't understand how unlikely it is that the Cubs have Heyward for 7 years. Well, they do on the downside end of the deal, so if he thinks Heyward isn't that good, he probably doesn't think it's at all out of the question that he doesn't opt out and you're stuck with a bad player for 7 years. Which is to say, for anyone who thought otherwise, there are still plenty of dumbass execs in baseball.
  12. Cubs over/under at Golden Nugget is set at 94. The 87 number was apparently from the Atlantis in Reno.
  13. http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/68235/ranking-the-teams-6-through-1-3
  14. must be a horsefeathers ton of zoom combined with shaky old guy hands
  15. i thought jersey's first gonzales post was funny but everything since on the twitter feed has seemed almost like a parody...wtf :lol: :lol: they just keep getting worse [tweet] [/tweet]
  16. And hates the Royals, it seems projection systems have a blind spot for what they've done with their bullpen
  17. Hamels? EDIT - For some reason, I thought he had a year and a half left when he got traded. The crappy FA class for next year is part of the reason Theo went so hard this year.
  18. Is PECOTA still broken? http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/
  19. http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2016/02/cubs-spring-training-pics/#image/1 Arguello with a bunch of ST pics http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2016/02/bp-video-heyward-rizzo-schwarber-almora-contreras/ Also Arguello with some BP video from Heyward, Rizzo, Schwarber, Almora, and Contreras Heyward back to his flat-footed toe tap thing
  20. Cubs aren't THAT absurdly high. That's just about where they'd be with modest positive variance. Or, better stated, if it's ever not crazy to predict 101 wins for a team, this Cubs roster is as fitting as any. It'd be a more shocking to see the Cardinals win 97, though. In their defense, if you read what they wrote along with them, they're just for fun guesses that they threw some arbitrary "analysis" into. They're not beholden to erring on the safe/conservative side like projection models. They're just attempting educated guesses at who will have what sort of variance. As for the betting market, the bookmakers are off on the Cubs by around 5-6 games (conservatively) compared to most projection models.
  21. even though i like almora, i would much prefer a world where soler and schwarber mash so hard that almora will never have the opportunity to displace one of them (or force them into a platoon)
  22. Meeeeeeeh, valuable to one of those poor teams maybe. The Almora 2nd half myth is carried almost totally by his August. It's more "post team USA" than 2nd half. it's just easier to say second half. and it was paired with obvious mechanical changes geared toward a more powerful swing.
  23. if he continues on as the hitter he was in the second half of last year, i am pretty excited about him
  24. [tweet] [/tweet]
  25. How many years in the future do they have sites announced for so far? I think 2020 would be about right for the ASG. I went to the 1990 game, had SRO tickets, it rained but would love to go to another one. They have them set through 2018. Given the timeline of renovations, I'd guess 2019 or 2020. I'd guess that they might end up erring toward 2020 if they want all the construction (including non-Wrigley renovation stuff like the hotel) to be done in time.
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