FIP and xFIP are both up a full point over last year (and are career highs), k/9 down three (and a career low this far), his k/bb ratio is well down from the past couple years and and his contact rate is up. His ERA is down a tick, but his LOB% is up. His babip is down a fair bit, but his LD% is not. If that's not less effective, I'm not sure what is. Obviously his peripherals and FIP numbers are going to be down if he's intentionally pitching to more contact. That is a given and was the starting point for the whole conversation. His ERA (and thus ERA+) are both considerably better than last year. That's literally more effective. I have no idea if it's sustainable and something he can succeed with, but as of now he is giving up fewer runs. The LD% is the only one of those that really makes the case that this is just luck and he isn't one of those weak contact guys, but LD% is a pretty awful stat so it's not going to convince me that he can't on its own.