David

It was obvious that by 99% I was just saying "vast majority" and not referencing some advanced statistical study on base stealing. That didn't really need any explaining. Are you implying that this is an actual opinion that you hold? I'm confused. Anyway, this is a stupid offshoot of the actual argument, so unless you have anything else to add, I think we can both agree that this is going nowhere. My point is that if something has a low percentage of working why keep doing it? It's a very bad comparison.

What is wrong with how Floyd performed two years ago? Nothing, if you don't mind how Sosa performed 2 years ago. :wink: I'm assuming you mean 3 years ago?

You know, there is a difference between an actual study done with real numbers, and then something like this, that you just got flustered and made up. I LOLed... Anyway, a hitter shouldn't go up to the plate trying to hit a home run or trying to hit a single. For the most part, he should just try to hit the ball hard, and let the rest sort itself out once the ball leaves his bat.

Back up what? Your numbers helped prove my point by saying that if the situation exists you can help your team score. I didn't see it say that you can't steal 3rd and if you did 100% of the time it hurts your team. I saw 92.7 which means that if you do it correctly you can take advantage. Also, these numbers are flat across the board numbers and doesn't pertain to certain situations/matchups. How many players out there can you count on to steal 3B with a 93% rate of success?? Even a 70% rate of success stealing 3rd is tough to achieve.

Wade Miller Is that what the caption says? Yup.

Wade Miller

That's nowhere near true. It proved that stealing 3rd is only slightly more stupid than stealing 2nd when there are no outs, a little less stupid with 1 out, and far more stupid with 2 outs. How many players can actually steal 3rd base at even a 70% clip? Much less a 75% or 93% rate?

The chances of scoring by being on 3rd as opposed to 2nd aren't improved enough to outweigh the negative of the likelihood of being thrown out and killing the rally altogether.

For my 3500th post, I will just say that I agree with IMB! that attempting to steal 3B is a bad idea 999 times out of 1000.

It was actually named after the owner, not the company. I was really just being a smartass. :) But, I mean, that's pretty much splitting hairs, IMO. The company is named after the owner too, after all.

I think he was just joking with you. Everyone here needs to chill a little bit, damn.

Wrigley has never been a place free of visual ad clutter. Fans have always had enormous, impossible to miss ads. no, no, but the Budweiser house and Torco signs are CHARMING and HISTORIC and FULL OF OLDE THYME AMBIANCE and don't forget the name Wrigley Field. That's charming. Certainly, not the name of any big corporation or anything...

He really does... And I'm going to reiterate just how great it is to see Mark Prior actually throwing baseballs off a mound in the first week of spring training.

New pics http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20070219/capt.azmg20702191859.cubs_spring_baseball_azmg207.jpg http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20070219/capt.azmg20302191840.cubs_spring_baseball_azmg203.jpg http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20070219/capt.azmg20102191830.cubs_spring_baseball_azmg201.jpg http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20070219/capt.azmg20602191857.cubs_spring_baseball_azmg206.jpg http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20070219/capt.azmg20502191855.cubs_spring_baseball_azmg205.jpg http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20070219/capt.azmg20402191851.cubs_spring_baseball_azmg204.jpg

The graph you linked to just shows BA. If you look at his OBP and SLG numbers, he has always been significantly more productive against righties, and I don't think it's much of a stretch to say that in terms of OPS, if he only plays against righties, he could meet and exceed last year's overall production fairly easily.

Even if Jones sits 80% of the time against left-handers (which I fully support and hopefully it's even more than that) he likely will still have the most-at bats because he has an advantage on the other two outfielders with starting against right-handers (Murton because he is right-handed, and Floyd because Floyd would be terrible defensively in RF). Even with Jones getting the most at-bats though, if they are sitting him against left-handers the Cubs outfield will be incredibly productive. I don't expect Jones to come close to the numbers he posted last year, except OBP. http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=735&position=OF&page=0&type=full Fangraphs also has an article on Big Z (not optimistic). http://www.fangraphs.com/ If Jones sits against the vast majority of lefties, his numbers will probably exceed last year's.

Even if Jones sits 80% of the time against left-handers (which I fully support and hopefully it's even more than that) he likely will still have the most-at bats because he has an advantage on the other two outfielders with starting against right-handers (Murton because he is right-handed, and Floyd because Floyd would be terrible defensively in RF). Even with Jones getting the most at-bats though, if they are sitting him against left-handers the Cubs outfield will be incredibly productive. Good point. I probably should've worded that better. I agree completely.

I sure hope Jones doesn't get the most AB's. I'm still holding out hope that he'll sit the vast majority of the time against lefties. The recent quotes from Piniella about being open to platoons and about working out/using Theriot and DeRosa in the OF provide reason for a little optimism, IMO.

I talked to the Syracuse Chiefs trainer and he said that a lot of the players don't work hard or see the value of keeping in shape until they get hurt. They have this "I'm indestructible" feeling and just think they are every going to need to do the things they need to do to stay healthy and prolong their careers and for many it's too late when they finally realize this. So you are saying there is wisdom in old age?? could be, or his wife said "Kerry, you are starting to look like John Kruk." I know that would do it for me. Or maybe she said, "Kerry if you don't lose some weight, you're not going to be able to get your fat arse out of this hot tub." If Sarah is in there too, is that really such a bad thing?

Maybe I should clarify. I don't really mean a hitter should go up to the plate with his bat on his shoulder all the time. I was just trying to refer to a general approach at the plate that I'd like to see. You still need to mix it up. Forgive the poker analogy, but even if you're a tight player and only wait for premium hands to play, every once in a while you have to mix it up and throw some chips in with a hand you wouldn't normally play. A lot of times it pays off big when a conservative player makes a surprise aggressive move. You can't get predictable.

And before last year, were either Encarnacion or Duncan thought of as #2 hitters? If I recall correctly, Encarnacion was penciled in as a 5-6-7 guy (depending on who was sitting), and Duncan was more of a 5-6-7 guy as well. Put ANYBODY in front of Pujols, and I promise you they will hit better. I don't see what your argument is. IMB just showed you that Encarnacion sucked even more than usual in the 2-hole (with Pujols "protecting" him), not that lineup splits usually provide much of a significant sample size anyway.

You should never base major personell and lineup decisions on spring training performance (this is true of pitchers, especially, but position players too). There are too many variables, and it's not usually a very significant sample size to base anything on. I wish there were less of this competing for a job in ST crap in MLB circles, but, at least, spring performance usually isn't used to determine much aside from a 5th starter, 12th pitcher, or last guy off the bench. I'd say the loads of information you have on a player before a spring game is even played are far more valuable in terms of coming to a conclusion than anything you can get out of 30 spring training games. Besides, Murton isn't just a case of a guy with potential. He has shown he can do it. His floor is there. He doesn't need to prove he belongs at the Major League level, he just needs to continue to progress and have a chance to reach his ceiling.

Yeah but it's much more fun IMO to be optimistic from the beginning then to jump on board once they start winning! I agree...so long as they KEEP winning. I may have trouble holding on to my pessimism until opening day. Come on and take the leap....I know it's scary but what the heck it's always an interesting ride! I took the leap last year, and my Cardinal buddy in the cubicle next to me never let me hear the end of it...I have to be at least a LITTLE more cautious this year. Let me guess, after we took all those games from the Cards early and before we lost Lee, right? I was there too, man.

not really relevant to this conversation, but I do imagine Cubs hitters walking a LOT more this year with the new hitting coach and with Dusty being gone. I think just getting the opposing pitchers to throw more pitches is the key and walks are just a byproduct of that. I'd put it the opposite. Well, not exactly. IMO, walks and getting the pitchers to throw more pitches are a byproduct of waiting for a pitch you can hit hard somewhere. Making contact with anything in the strike zone just for the sake of making contact (outside of some situations, obviously, like a close two strike pitch) is the one thing they need to stay totally away from. Even on two strikes, if there's a runner on first and less than two outs, I'd almost rather they take strike three than to just try and make contact for the sake of contact, because a good amount of the time that swing, on a pitcher's pitch, is going to result in two outs instead of one. Sorry, got off on a bit of a tangent there. If they go up there with the approach that before two strikes (in most cases), they're only going to swing if they get a pitch to hit, I think the rest will come. I just hope to see a lot less swinging early in the count this year. We've been letting the opposing pitcher off the hook way too easily, especially since 2003.

With the talk of DeRosa/Theriot playing the outfield lately, I'm holding out hope that Lou will do the right thing and basically straight-platoon Jones and Theriot. That would probably make for a pretty productive combo. Whether Theriot plays 2B and DeRosa plays RF or Theriot just plays RF in that scenario doesn't much matter to me.