Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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Cubs sign Hector Neris to 1yr /$9m with options
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Jason Ross's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Kinda? Only 2 Cubs hit 60 appearances last year(Merryweather & Leiter Jr), so it's far from a foregone conclusion. Basically any DL stint is likely to cause him to miss(see Fulmer and Alzolay w/ 58 appearances), and the language means that if the DL stint comes at EOY then it doesn't matter on that point either. So it's a bet that Neris has a full healthy season and also doesn't crater performance wise. To make up percentages, the odds of that are probably not less than 50%, but probably not more than 65-70%? -
Cubs sign Hector Neris to 1yr /$9m with options
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Jason Ross's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
some real 'large boulder the size of a small boulder' vibes with that impairment language -
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You're gonna make Mastrobuoni cry
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2023-24 Offseason Prospect Lists
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
BP has the Cubs with the 2nd overall farm system, behind the Orioles (free with login): https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/87996/2024-prospects-organizational-prospect-rankings/ -
As an aside: the 2016 team was one of if not the most dominant team of most of our lifetimes. The Cubs should aspire to consistent dominance, but doing roster comparisons as if the 2016 team is the bar is always going to be an exercise in futility. To that end, given the composition of the roster, the current roster building dynamics in the CBA, and the upper bound of what's likely from a spending perspective, the way to consistent dominance is likely going to be real but not massive improvements each year(squally has made a similar point repeatedly). I think it's fair to hope they could have made a larger leap this year, but the difference in what was reasonable and where they're likely to end the offseason is a lot smaller than a lot of disappointed folks have implied.
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Scorers are generally pretty generous with not giving throwing errors on balls that might've been sure doubles, plus you're depriving Happ(who has his share of assists) the chance at the ball, etc. I think the point is well taken and it's in the spirit that we don't want to index too hard on error totals if there's a big difference in range(hence why good defenders often have superficially inflated error totals). For this particular comparison though, in my view I don't think it's a case where it changes a lot about how we view the defensive options. Said another way, both Madrigal and Morel need to maximize their time to throw in order to be successful defensively, just for different reasons. Madrigal can't throw hard enough to beat the runner otherwise, and when Morel has less time his mechanics fail him and the ball goes everywhere.
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Morel has made 9 errors as a MLB infielder, and 7 of them are throwing errors(77%). For comparison, the 15 qualified 3B combined had 47% of their errors be throwing errors. We don't have the split for his MiLB career, but we also know this isn't exactly out of character with the scouting report either, especially on the left side of the infield(6 of 7 errors throwing). So if the net result is Morel gets to more balls than Madrigal but those put greater strain on his (superior) arm to make the play, then I think you're maximizing the situations that lead to his errors and I don't know if you come out ahead. That said, the optimistic takeaway you could make here is that this is a mechanics issue, there's not a huge risk of him being stone handed and kicking 30 balls so possibly with repetition you can help drill him in avoiding those errors. But as we've talked about before, the left side of the infield isn't exactly a place he lacks reps, so you'd hope to have seen more progress by now to be particularly optimistic.
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2023-24 Offseason Prospect Lists
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
All 5 are in Kiley's 55 FV tier, PCA being the highest ranked player not to be up in 60 or greater. -
Welcome! The Cubs do not lose a pick if they sign Bellinger, but they don't gain the extra pick that they would gain if another team signed him.
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I was being facetious
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Jed Hoyer, famous for adding additional years to contracts when it's not necessary, gave Smyly/Mancini/Barnhart 2 years when no one else would even consider doing so. Also, everyone wanted to sign Bellinger for his contract and it was just a roll of the dice that Bellinger happened to pick the Cubs. These two things are both undeniably true and not internally contradictory.
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The tweet I saw on this was Driveline announcing his signing so he must've been working out there this year and shown off something in a workout for teams.
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I don't necessarily disagree, though for multiple reasons I'm not a fan of Morel for Bieber as a framework. In the instance where using Morel to get immediate production is preferred for the urgency reasons you mention, I think it's more likely they bet on their pitching infrastructure with more years of control and less certainty instead of going for someone like Bieber for 1 year. That said, if they really like Bieber I could also see them seeing a trade for him as having either a de facto team option or a likely prospect ROI via the qualifying offer, so maybe that helps bridge the gap?
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I think you can probably make a reasonable argument in either direction about the value of Morel v. Bieber, but what is maybe more important is that it doesn't seem likely that even if the value lines up, that Jed would use Morel's trade value on a 1 year solution.
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I still have a hard time thinking the Jays have a Bellinger-sized AAV in them. They're already a whisker over the LT, it strikes me as unlikely they're going to shoot into the 20+ overage bracket(with a higher surcharge since they exceeded last year) to set a new all-time high in payroll just to marginalize Kiermeier, who they paid a tidy amount(10.5M AAV) to a month ago. But also, I just can't see Montgomery's market falling enough to fall into a place where the Cubs will be aggressive enough to win the race. Maybe if somehow Bellinger and Chapman don't work out and Montgomery's still on the market, but it would be very against form to have another longer term deal to a 30+ SP. Value is value and all that, but I have to think there's probably multiple trade contingencies that would come first. Maybe it's my bias against Montgomery as a player but I think any of the ties made to the Cubs(especially post-Imanaga) are agent-based bluster to try and move his market.
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Cubs sign Hector Neris to 1yr /$9m with options
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Jason Ross's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
The other thing it makes me wonder about is them keeping their options open in trade, similar to how Busch didn't necessarily slam any doors on the position player side. Neris is kinda like the deluxe version of Leiter, and we've speculated that they might have lost some faith in Leiter after he lost the feel for his split. A couple of the relievers they've been connected to are from small market teams that have some level of competitive aspirations, I could see a result where the capper on the offseason is Leiter going with a prospect for like Tanner Scott, who would really make that group look formidable and also stay on brand with long term resources being committed for that type of player/production. -
Cubs sign Hector Neris to 1yr /$9m with options
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Jason Ross's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I don't recall the starting bit, but yes one of the more speculative Dominican reporters claimed he wanted 3/50. -
Cubs sign Hector Neris to 1yr /$9m with options
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Jason Ross's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Neris being historically pretty split neutral might be a hint. He's exceeded a .340 wOBA against LHH just once in his career(back in 2018), and across his 2 years in Houston he was better against LHH(.241 wOBA) than RHH(.260). Add in Leiter as an opposite-handed specialist, and Merryweather not having stark splits either, and you feel like you can get after them multiple ways. That said with Smyly being the only literal one it certainly would seem like it opens the door for Little to seize any opportunity, though he's not had much trouble with RHH either. -
The thing that keeps me from being too riled up is the difference in expectation, ceiling, and certainty between Brasier + Robertson and like, Almonte + Stanek or whatever is basically nothing. If they miss they miss, and while you can't bat 1.000 they're responsible for how the pen turns out. But in-advance hand wringing about which of the non-elite arms get brought in, or pretending that below the elite level that spending more raises the certainty dramatically, just doesn't do it for me.
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He has a career 3.45 ERA in almost 350 IP as a reliever spread across a bunch of seasons. He throws very hard and doesn't give up much hard contact, which explains him being a FIP-beater over his career. He has not had the career of the late inning reliever of your dreams, but calling him not very good and finding the most pessimistic nit to pick at each season isn't telling the tale. As with any reliever south of the top 5 or so RP in the game, they are unpredictable, prone to randomness, and what's most important is simply making sure you ultimately get it right. Stanek has the components(and some precedent) to be a capable late inning option.
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If there's gonna be an FA reliever added that's not at the bottom of the pay scale, Stanek feels like the leader in the clubhouse.
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Hoskins doesn't have nearly the uncertainty of production that Bellinger did, I think something like this was always the likelihood both in shape and size, as long as that's what Hoskins wanted to prioritize(instead of e.g. aiming for 1/20 or avoiding a particular team/city, etc). This is also probably a deal that could've been signed a long time ago, so hopefully it and the Moore deal are a sign that Boras is starting to clear the decks a bit. The bigger disconnect is probably still out there though, because Hoskins and Moore were always destined to sign short term deals, and the Bellinger/Chapman/Snell/Montgomery disconnect is likely much greater on years than it is on the margins of AAV.
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He does not have arbitration years, he would be a free agent.
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Mina Kimes had a tweet video referencing that decision, I think the stat was no one went for 2 in that situation for over 15 years prior to 2017, but this year coaches did it around 30% of the time.
