Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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2023-24 Offseason Prospect Lists
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Horton is 49, not 29. Sometimes I get a little annoyed that Fangraphs' publishing schedule for prospect content is so delayed and inconsistent. Then I see the content from another largely one person operation like Law's list and think maybe that's just how it has to be to not sound ridiculous. -
If the destination is the same both times then yes they're equivalent, though there is something lost in delaying ST for the player if it comes to that. But in December you also have potentially more suitors and can get the best of both worlds instead of hoping against hope a higher offer comes later. This isn't as much the case for Bellinger, but for say Rhys Hoskins? I have to think his 2/34 with opt out(or something very close to it) was available in December. Now because other options dried up he ended up with that deal on a Brewers team that's going to try to thread the needle of transitioning eras instead of a team with a more desirable competitive situation(or a more desirable city than Milwaukee).
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This was a really interesting read, Carl is a personal favorite going all the way back to the Garza trade. I wonder if the Cubs plan to tweak the arsenal further, maybe add him to the pile of guys trying a splitter to bring back some swing and miss and potentially help against LHH?
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This is somewhat new from Hawkins, and I think it lends credence to the idea that 3B is going to be a matchup by committee. Take this chart more seriously than literally, because I'm taking some shortcuts by dividing opposing P into velo or not(when there's nuance based on pitch type and where they work in the zone), but I think it's illustrative of how frequently there may be different faces at the position.
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I suspect that this finding is similar to one I shared a while back about players with low K rates and steep launch angles, that it is representative of hitting *talent*. Or if you want to be more precise, bat control and the ability to adjust your swing successfully. So even in the case that a subsequent season's batted balls aren't quite the same(in terms of quality or quantity), the ability to do this once portends the ability to make a different adjustment to maintain overall offensive success. This tracks for me given that Bellinger has been successful at different levels of K rate even before 2023, and he's certainly no stranger to high end offensive pedigree given his draft and prospect status(to say nothing of the ROY and MVP on his mantle).
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It's also 1 year of Burnes at 15 million coming off his worst season. Maybe they could've consolidated the value more, but that seems uncertain given how teams have clung to prospects, and in their position they're probably better off with more bites at the apple in looking for good players to be a part of their next core.
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Rhys Hoskins
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Cubs sign Hector Neris to 1yr /$9m with options
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Jason Ross's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Kinda? Only 2 Cubs hit 60 appearances last year(Merryweather & Leiter Jr), so it's far from a foregone conclusion. Basically any DL stint is likely to cause him to miss(see Fulmer and Alzolay w/ 58 appearances), and the language means that if the DL stint comes at EOY then it doesn't matter on that point either. So it's a bet that Neris has a full healthy season and also doesn't crater performance wise. To make up percentages, the odds of that are probably not less than 50%, but probably not more than 65-70%? -
Cubs sign Hector Neris to 1yr /$9m with options
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Jason Ross's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
some real 'large boulder the size of a small boulder' vibes with that impairment language -
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You're gonna make Mastrobuoni cry
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2023-24 Offseason Prospect Lists
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
BP has the Cubs with the 2nd overall farm system, behind the Orioles (free with login): https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/87996/2024-prospects-organizational-prospect-rankings/ -
As an aside: the 2016 team was one of if not the most dominant team of most of our lifetimes. The Cubs should aspire to consistent dominance, but doing roster comparisons as if the 2016 team is the bar is always going to be an exercise in futility. To that end, given the composition of the roster, the current roster building dynamics in the CBA, and the upper bound of what's likely from a spending perspective, the way to consistent dominance is likely going to be real but not massive improvements each year(squally has made a similar point repeatedly). I think it's fair to hope they could have made a larger leap this year, but the difference in what was reasonable and where they're likely to end the offseason is a lot smaller than a lot of disappointed folks have implied.
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Scorers are generally pretty generous with not giving throwing errors on balls that might've been sure doubles, plus you're depriving Happ(who has his share of assists) the chance at the ball, etc. I think the point is well taken and it's in the spirit that we don't want to index too hard on error totals if there's a big difference in range(hence why good defenders often have superficially inflated error totals). For this particular comparison though, in my view I don't think it's a case where it changes a lot about how we view the defensive options. Said another way, both Madrigal and Morel need to maximize their time to throw in order to be successful defensively, just for different reasons. Madrigal can't throw hard enough to beat the runner otherwise, and when Morel has less time his mechanics fail him and the ball goes everywhere.
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Morel has made 9 errors as a MLB infielder, and 7 of them are throwing errors(77%). For comparison, the 15 qualified 3B combined had 47% of their errors be throwing errors. We don't have the split for his MiLB career, but we also know this isn't exactly out of character with the scouting report either, especially on the left side of the infield(6 of 7 errors throwing). So if the net result is Morel gets to more balls than Madrigal but those put greater strain on his (superior) arm to make the play, then I think you're maximizing the situations that lead to his errors and I don't know if you come out ahead. That said, the optimistic takeaway you could make here is that this is a mechanics issue, there's not a huge risk of him being stone handed and kicking 30 balls so possibly with repetition you can help drill him in avoiding those errors. But as we've talked about before, the left side of the infield isn't exactly a place he lacks reps, so you'd hope to have seen more progress by now to be particularly optimistic.
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2023-24 Offseason Prospect Lists
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
All 5 are in Kiley's 55 FV tier, PCA being the highest ranked player not to be up in 60 or greater. -
Welcome! The Cubs do not lose a pick if they sign Bellinger, but they don't gain the extra pick that they would gain if another team signed him.
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I was being facetious
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Jed Hoyer, famous for adding additional years to contracts when it's not necessary, gave Smyly/Mancini/Barnhart 2 years when no one else would even consider doing so. Also, everyone wanted to sign Bellinger for his contract and it was just a roll of the dice that Bellinger happened to pick the Cubs. These two things are both undeniably true and not internally contradictory.
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The tweet I saw on this was Driveline announcing his signing so he must've been working out there this year and shown off something in a workout for teams.
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I don't necessarily disagree, though for multiple reasons I'm not a fan of Morel for Bieber as a framework. In the instance where using Morel to get immediate production is preferred for the urgency reasons you mention, I think it's more likely they bet on their pitching infrastructure with more years of control and less certainty instead of going for someone like Bieber for 1 year. That said, if they really like Bieber I could also see them seeing a trade for him as having either a de facto team option or a likely prospect ROI via the qualifying offer, so maybe that helps bridge the gap?
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I think you can probably make a reasonable argument in either direction about the value of Morel v. Bieber, but what is maybe more important is that it doesn't seem likely that even if the value lines up, that Jed would use Morel's trade value on a 1 year solution.
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I still have a hard time thinking the Jays have a Bellinger-sized AAV in them. They're already a whisker over the LT, it strikes me as unlikely they're going to shoot into the 20+ overage bracket(with a higher surcharge since they exceeded last year) to set a new all-time high in payroll just to marginalize Kiermeier, who they paid a tidy amount(10.5M AAV) to a month ago. But also, I just can't see Montgomery's market falling enough to fall into a place where the Cubs will be aggressive enough to win the race. Maybe if somehow Bellinger and Chapman don't work out and Montgomery's still on the market, but it would be very against form to have another longer term deal to a 30+ SP. Value is value and all that, but I have to think there's probably multiple trade contingencies that would come first. Maybe it's my bias against Montgomery as a player but I think any of the ties made to the Cubs(especially post-Imanaga) are agent-based bluster to try and move his market.
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Cubs sign Hector Neris to 1yr /$9m with options
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Jason Ross's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
The other thing it makes me wonder about is them keeping their options open in trade, similar to how Busch didn't necessarily slam any doors on the position player side. Neris is kinda like the deluxe version of Leiter, and we've speculated that they might have lost some faith in Leiter after he lost the feel for his split. A couple of the relievers they've been connected to are from small market teams that have some level of competitive aspirations, I could see a result where the capper on the offseason is Leiter going with a prospect for like Tanner Scott, who would really make that group look formidable and also stay on brand with long term resources being committed for that type of player/production. -
Cubs sign Hector Neris to 1yr /$9m with options
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Jason Ross's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I don't recall the starting bit, but yes one of the more speculative Dominican reporters claimed he wanted 3/50.
