Transmogrified Tiger

Murakami doesn't turn 25 until next February, so I *think* he would still face IFA limits after 2024 but could be posted after 2025? Or if birthday is the hard limit to officially post, then in theory he could be posted 2 weeks before ST maybe.

Correct, if he wanted to be posted or come over as a free agent without IFA limitations, he'd have to wait several years. Sasaki turned 22 in November and has played 3 seasons in NPB.

I feel like if the Sox were desperate enough to unload Kopech and Moncada's salaries that they'd take on 12 million in salary that has zero use to their next competitive team to get rid of them, that trade would've happened before mid-January. I do still remain intrigued by Moncada, but the uncertainty with his injuries along with the nature of his contract and the White Sox position makes a match unlikely. You can't in good conscience take on a 24M LT hit for him this year, and if they're fine holding on to him you're gonna have to definitely talk them into trading him with something of value(doubly so if they're taking on any money). At that point it becomes a bad type of risky very quickly unless it's a last resort "we struck out on all our other options and this is a way to gamble with found money for 2024" type of situation.

that may be the most open receiver I have ever seen in my life

I know the thread has discussed this a bit as it happened, but these were my takeaways from attending Saturday only: I don't think we learned anything particularly decisive, except for 1) Fans really really want Bellinger back 2) Jed is still very mad at Bob Nightengale over the Morel trade stuff(maybe also at the Morel convention trade rumors, which is hilarious because he ranted about it in answering a question from Crawly, who started them) and 3) Pat Hughes will not tolerate the question "how many world series have you won", even from children Maybe it's because I rewatched Moneyball a few days ago, but the way that Jed and especially Carter basically ripped off Jonah Hill's "we're buying wins" terminology I thought was interesting. When you combine this with the Counsell hire, I really do believe we need to rethink the more rigid lineup spots and roles we normally use to talk about offseason needs and holes. They did talk a bit about not going too far out of balance(they used the example of all RHH lineups), but in general I think their approach is to add as much surplus value as they can and let Counsell figure out how it fits together(within reason) Speaking of Counsell, the only time I recall him calling out a specific player was Wesneski, as someone he had been very interested in from afar. This was in the context of balancing reading all data/reports on the team vs. not letting that spoil his first hands on impression, so it might not be anything. But maybe a good reminder that if Wesneski were a trade target from another org we might be really intrigued by his 2022 success and repertoire, so the FO might be too for his 2024 role. Tauchman I thought had the most thoughtful answers to questions of any player I saw. The other players weren't necessarily cliche factories but I thought he had the most interesting answers and those that seemed to give the biggest peek behind the curtain.

Hoskins has a career 118 wRC+ against RHP

Jordan Hicks has the most hittable 100 mph fastball in history, bad command, and no semblance of a third pitch, so they're gonna have him start and drop a few more ticks off the fastball and give hitters multiple looks?

Since the Cubs are the last NL Central team to get the ZiPS treatment, here's a crude look of how it forecasts them by summing up the depth chart values: Cardinals: 40.7 WAR Cubs: 38.9 Brewers: 35 Reds: 32.5 Pirates: 30.8 Those aren't entirely up to date since the Cardinals added Kittredge, the Reds added a reliever, etc, but I don't believe anyone else in the division has made a move since their ZiPS day that would meaningfully change the top line number or order of the teams as it stands today.

He was a 1B in college(in the ACC, which if I pull out my OMC conversion chart is High A equivalent?), so it's not a completely foreign position to him even if he hasn't had as many pro reps.

This is a narrow path and I also don't think Jed would play it this way, however, if you went to Boras with 4/90 for Chapman he'd have to think real hard about accepting, right? At which point, without the same urgency Bellinger's market possibly tanks further and he might even struggle to get the Correa 3 year pillow deal? And if Bellinger is potentially looking at 1 year deals, you have (probably) Cody's favored destination on a duration that Jed will have no qualms about, and with the money to give him in the vicinity of 30M if that's what it takes... The main problem with this is it's backwards in terms of player preference, and even for all his defense-mongering and long-term hesitancy, Jed seems to have a greater focus on Bellinger than Chapman too.

He'd have to get enough playing/service time to not qualify anymore. Each list's eligibility criteria are slightly different, but him staying in the Pipeline list is probably a good sign. Fangraphs says he has 45 days of service time.

They need to be Top 100 in 2 out of 3 of MLB, BA, and ESPN's Top 100 to be eligible for that incentive. Last year Busch was 54 in both MLB & BA and just outside ESPN's Top 100, and right now MLB Pipeline shows him as #44, so I think there's a pretty good chance.

Depends on the specifics. As Rob mentioned, you can probably get away with sacrificing some defense for offense in the infield when Imanaga or Taillon are on the mound, maybe Wesneski or Smyly too if they end up starting any games. We're also talking about literally half the lineup so you do need redundancy for rest and insurance against injury or underperformance. Do I think they'll sign Bellinger and Hoskins and keep Morel? I wouldn't put money on it. But I also don't see it being crossed off in pen.

I strongly suspect that this doesn't really eliminate any of the FA options, but gives them options to have a reasonable mix regardless of who they're able to sign on their terms. I also think that this is part of why you pay Craig Counsell record money, to be able to take an imperfect group and make it better than the sum of their parts, so I think we should be careful to assume that any one player has a particular position locked down when it comes to 1B, 3B, DH, or even CF.

They're fairly different situations. Morel has had abundant opportunity to play 3B as a professional, and simply has been unplayably bad there and at SS(~25+ errors/150 games). Busch had never played 3B before last year, so while he certainly didn't take to it like Madrigal did, there's at least the possibility that more reps/instruction could make a difference quickly.

The margins on who makes the leap from AAA to MLB are so slim, that none of us can with any confidence say it's going to work out or not. Maybe Busch is Ian Stewart and Ferris goes on to be the pitching version of Lemahieu. Maybe Busch is Anthony Rizzo and Ferris never even makes it as far as Cashner. I said it up thread but what matters most here is that this was clearly done with conviction. There was no urgency to trade Ferris or Hope(quite literally the opposite), Busch is not available for pennies on the dollar because he's toxic to the Dodgers and everyone else. This doesn't mean the entirety of Jed's tenure is staked in Michael Busch being a hitter(the price paid is not *that* high), but this is an opinionated move and we just have to see if it's right. It also may be something where we lack the full picture, e.g. if a Morel trade has become feasible and all of a sudden you've basically paperclip traded your way into a different upgrade and made your position-less bat fit the roster better in the process(by being LHH).

Or they think one or both of Morel and Busch can at least be a part time 3B. Or they're stacking bats they like to give Counsell as many pieces to deploy as best he can. Also further Bellinger/Hoskins leverage.

I'm surprised that it's Ferris and Hope, the prospect depth is fairly consolidated in the upper levels already, though some of that is mitigated with this year's draft pitchers being unleashed and Mule debuting. The thing I really wanted to see from Jed this offseason was decisiveness. Imanaga with all his contract complexity kinda qualifies, but the discount v. his expected contract mitigates that a bit. THIS is a decisive move, hopefully Busch hits and/or proves capable of manning 3B and it can be the type of move that helps them level up.

I did my best to consolidate the conversation, but there may still be an orphaned post or two somewhere.

There are jokes to make here(Busch and Morel gonna platoon at 3B and commit 84 errors, we will buy a 3B from the Dodgers every year until morale improves), but Busch is a really interesting target. Part of me wonders if there's a challenge trade here with Mervis going the other way. EDIT: Guess not on the Mervis part!

So the Almonte timeline seems to be: Languishes in the Colorado wastelands as an unremarkable reliever Dodgers get him, he immediately pitches lights out in 2022(including a velo bump), then gets shut down with elbow tightness that doesn't require surgery 2023 he's still at least somewhat impacted by the elbow in ST, has a terrible April and a bad May, turns it around afterwards and then runs into a knee injury in August that ends his season So the optimistic case is that if the elbow was what was behind his early 2022 struggles, then the Almonte you get for 2024-2025 is likely to be the better version he was in the other ~55 IP he threw as a dodger.

Tom it's Scott Boras doing his long-established playbook for what he thinks will get his clients the best deal, it's not the hunger games.

I think this is backwards, I think they believe they had a competing team last year that was unlucky, and so they view maintaining that roster's quality in the rotation and lineup and upgrading the bullpen is a step forward, plus they have more impact coming from the farm this year than last. The LT point has been beaten to death so I don't want to relitigate it, but I think Bertz said it best that if they were not planning on going over the LT this year, then it makes little sense for them to not creep over it with their deadline moves last year in maximizing their playoff chances. Maybe they don't do it, I understand skepticism, but unless they strike out with multiple bats(as well as a contingency like pivoting to Montgomery), I believe they're going over this year.