Transmogrified Tiger

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I don't think it's the most likely outcome by any means, but there's a not-that-small chance that Shaw is a slightly lesser version of Bregman. Maybe a few less walks and lesser defense, and a few more hits/XBH? Whether that's worthy of 'best player in the organization' is a slightly different question, but especially with some outlets putting him as high as the Top 25 overall, I think it's a possibility he's *in the conversation* for best position player on a competitive team(like Bregman). The thing that I really hope we internalize though is that Shaw will not be that caliber of player this year, and should have absolutely zero bearing on the 2024 roster. You can't not make an upgrade because you're afraid of blocking him; he has failure risk like all prospects, he's only got a handful of AA games which means he's unlikely to be MLB ready for most of the season if he gets there in 2024 at all, and his defensive home is unsure enough that you can't hesitate to make moves even if you're bullish on him.

I agree, I don't think he'll rise as high and as quickly as Horton did, but maybe make a similar jump relative to the consensus from before he takes the mound professionally, if that makes sense.

Shaw in between PCA and Horton definitely perks my ears up

BP's Top 101 is out, and it features 9 Cubs: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/87663/2024-prospects-the-top-101/

Multiple things can be true. Ownership and by extension front offices can be too conservative with their budgets and therefore their risk tolerances, and also it's not a coincidence that most of the remaining marquee free agents all have the same agent who may not have the most grounded view of the value of those players. Blake Snell is a good pitcher, he's also 31, is projected by ZiPS to be a similar caliber pitcher as Imanaga, and has been a sub-3 WAR caliber pitcher in half his seasons. We can hold these contrasting thoughts in our head and even disagree about how to weight them without it being the result of a lifetime of brainwashing and proof positive of the game succumbing to capitalist overlords.

I think Busch has more swing and miss and a bit better batting eye and HR potential, but I think they have a fair amount of similarities as LHH 1B who don't try to go full Gallo in their offensive approach, with more gap to gap swings and above average contact rates.

Murakami doesn't turn 25 until next February, so I *think* he would still face IFA limits after 2024 but could be posted after 2025? Or if birthday is the hard limit to officially post, then in theory he could be posted 2 weeks before ST maybe.

Correct, if he wanted to be posted or come over as a free agent without IFA limitations, he'd have to wait several years. Sasaki turned 22 in November and has played 3 seasons in NPB.

I feel like if the Sox were desperate enough to unload Kopech and Moncada's salaries that they'd take on 12 million in salary that has zero use to their next competitive team to get rid of them, that trade would've happened before mid-January. I do still remain intrigued by Moncada, but the uncertainty with his injuries along with the nature of his contract and the White Sox position makes a match unlikely. You can't in good conscience take on a 24M LT hit for him this year, and if they're fine holding on to him you're gonna have to definitely talk them into trading him with something of value(doubly so if they're taking on any money). At that point it becomes a bad type of risky very quickly unless it's a last resort "we struck out on all our other options and this is a way to gamble with found money for 2024" type of situation.

that may be the most open receiver I have ever seen in my life

I know the thread has discussed this a bit as it happened, but these were my takeaways from attending Saturday only: I don't think we learned anything particularly decisive, except for 1) Fans really really want Bellinger back 2) Jed is still very mad at Bob Nightengale over the Morel trade stuff(maybe also at the Morel convention trade rumors, which is hilarious because he ranted about it in answering a question from Crawly, who started them) and 3) Pat Hughes will not tolerate the question "how many world series have you won", even from children Maybe it's because I rewatched Moneyball a few days ago, but the way that Jed and especially Carter basically ripped off Jonah Hill's "we're buying wins" terminology I thought was interesting. When you combine this with the Counsell hire, I really do believe we need to rethink the more rigid lineup spots and roles we normally use to talk about offseason needs and holes. They did talk a bit about not going too far out of balance(they used the example of all RHH lineups), but in general I think their approach is to add as much surplus value as they can and let Counsell figure out how it fits together(within reason) Speaking of Counsell, the only time I recall him calling out a specific player was Wesneski, as someone he had been very interested in from afar. This was in the context of balancing reading all data/reports on the team vs. not letting that spoil his first hands on impression, so it might not be anything. But maybe a good reminder that if Wesneski were a trade target from another org we might be really intrigued by his 2022 success and repertoire, so the FO might be too for his 2024 role. Tauchman I thought had the most thoughtful answers to questions of any player I saw. The other players weren't necessarily cliche factories but I thought he had the most interesting answers and those that seemed to give the biggest peek behind the curtain.

Hoskins has a career 118 wRC+ against RHP

Jordan Hicks has the most hittable 100 mph fastball in history, bad command, and no semblance of a third pitch, so they're gonna have him start and drop a few more ticks off the fastball and give hitters multiple looks?

Since the Cubs are the last NL Central team to get the ZiPS treatment, here's a crude look of how it forecasts them by summing up the depth chart values: Cardinals: 40.7 WAR Cubs: 38.9 Brewers: 35 Reds: 32.5 Pirates: 30.8 Those aren't entirely up to date since the Cardinals added Kittredge, the Reds added a reliever, etc, but I don't believe anyone else in the division has made a move since their ZiPS day that would meaningfully change the top line number or order of the teams as it stands today.

He was a 1B in college(in the ACC, which if I pull out my OMC conversion chart is High A equivalent?), so it's not a completely foreign position to him even if he hasn't had as many pro reps.

This is a narrow path and I also don't think Jed would play it this way, however, if you went to Boras with 4/90 for Chapman he'd have to think real hard about accepting, right? At which point, without the same urgency Bellinger's market possibly tanks further and he might even struggle to get the Correa 3 year pillow deal? And if Bellinger is potentially looking at 1 year deals, you have (probably) Cody's favored destination on a duration that Jed will have no qualms about, and with the money to give him in the vicinity of 30M if that's what it takes... The main problem with this is it's backwards in terms of player preference, and even for all his defense-mongering and long-term hesitancy, Jed seems to have a greater focus on Bellinger than Chapman too.

He'd have to get enough playing/service time to not qualify anymore. Each list's eligibility criteria are slightly different, but him staying in the Pipeline list is probably a good sign. Fangraphs says he has 45 days of service time.

They need to be Top 100 in 2 out of 3 of MLB, BA, and ESPN's Top 100 to be eligible for that incentive. Last year Busch was 54 in both MLB & BA and just outside ESPN's Top 100, and right now MLB Pipeline shows him as #44, so I think there's a pretty good chance.

Depends on the specifics. As Rob mentioned, you can probably get away with sacrificing some defense for offense in the infield when Imanaga or Taillon are on the mound, maybe Wesneski or Smyly too if they end up starting any games. We're also talking about literally half the lineup so you do need redundancy for rest and insurance against injury or underperformance. Do I think they'll sign Bellinger and Hoskins and keep Morel? I wouldn't put money on it. But I also don't see it being crossed off in pen.

I strongly suspect that this doesn't really eliminate any of the FA options, but gives them options to have a reasonable mix regardless of who they're able to sign on their terms. I also think that this is part of why you pay Craig Counsell record money, to be able to take an imperfect group and make it better than the sum of their parts, so I think we should be careful to assume that any one player has a particular position locked down when it comes to 1B, 3B, DH, or even CF.

They're fairly different situations. Morel has had abundant opportunity to play 3B as a professional, and simply has been unplayably bad there and at SS(~25+ errors/150 games). Busch had never played 3B before last year, so while he certainly didn't take to it like Madrigal did, there's at least the possibility that more reps/instruction could make a difference quickly.

The margins on who makes the leap from AAA to MLB are so slim, that none of us can with any confidence say it's going to work out or not. Maybe Busch is Ian Stewart and Ferris goes on to be the pitching version of Lemahieu. Maybe Busch is Anthony Rizzo and Ferris never even makes it as far as Cashner. I said it up thread but what matters most here is that this was clearly done with conviction. There was no urgency to trade Ferris or Hope(quite literally the opposite), Busch is not available for pennies on the dollar because he's toxic to the Dodgers and everyone else. This doesn't mean the entirety of Jed's tenure is staked in Michael Busch being a hitter(the price paid is not *that* high), but this is an opinionated move and we just have to see if it's right. It also may be something where we lack the full picture, e.g. if a Morel trade has become feasible and all of a sudden you've basically paperclip traded your way into a different upgrade and made your position-less bat fit the roster better in the process(by being LHH).